Saturday, December 31, 2005

Uuuummm, Goldberg and Steyn 2006 Predictions

Re(1): 'NRO’s 2006 Crystal Ball',, Editors and Writers thereof

Dear God, Noooooooooooooooo...

Jonah Goldberg
  • Joe Wilson and Valerie Plame will enter talks to launch their own talk/reality show. Even after a sweeps week episode in which Wilson eats 6 pounds of yellow cake from in-between Plame's cleavage with his hands tied behind his back, he will take great offense at anyone who suggests he's a publicity hound.
  • Abu Zarqawi will be caught alive. But he will hang himself in his cell when Reuters reports that Iraqi authorities found the director's cut of Brokeback Mountain in his portable DVD player.

Mark Steyn

  • Hollywood will have another bad year following the failure of its latest critically-acclaimed masterpiece. In Broke Bank Mountin', the entire movie industry is flying in a jet to New York when a terrorist stewardess announces she's crushing their dissent by crashing the plane into the Empire State Building. Fortunately, an unemployed giant gorilla from Animal Equity is rampaging around at the top of the tower after his film career tanked when he agreed to take a challenging role in which he played the world's first gay giant gorilla and answers a personal ad in the Village Voice from a plus-sized bear. The enraged ape reaches into the sky and picks up the plane, sending the terrorist stewardess tumbling to the back of coach, where her wig falls off and she's revealed to be Dick Cheney. Industry insiders will be taken aback by the $300-million multi-Oscar-nominated flop but have high hopes for the new Spielberg movie Cycle Of Violence starring Nicole Kidman and Kate Winslet as Israeli and Palestinian unicyclists who elope after the Cirque du Soleil opening ceremony at the Italian Olympics.

2006 New Year's Predictions!!!

Re(1): 'Predictions for 2006', , Political Fred
Re(2): 'The Net Never Forgets',, Me

I was going to blather about predictions for 2006 when I started surfing though my blog roll... Alas, Political Fred's synopses fired before any of my caffeine induced nodes awoke...

Predictions are fun. For example, in June 2004 I got into a tussle with someone named Julius on the 'Command Post' regarding the direction Iraq would subsequently take. So, naturally someone as cocky as I would have to review the wager at a later date in 'The Net Never Forgets'. Check out the original Command Post discussion - quite wide ranging...

So here are some aditional projections to think about:
  1. Iran gets sanctioned - effectively (look at map)
  2. Iraq will no longer be the major combat theater in the GWOT
  3. Afghanistan will move farther away from active combat in the GWOT
  4. Pakistan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt will become combat zones in the GWOT (1)
  5. The Hard Left will drag the Center Left into political oblivion in America
    Senate: 58 Republicans, 42 Democrats
    House: ~235, Republicans, ~200 Democrats
    Media: Krugman and Scheer scale lifestyle downward (2)

Predictions can be dangerous - will the above post land in my 'My Flameouts' (currently empty) blogroll of shame!!!

(1) I think, however, that only Syria and possibly Pakistan will require American forces. Saudi Arabia and Egypt seem to be moving smartly forward using their 'police' forces.

(2) And there will be another huge media scandal prompted by bias and topic ignorance. How long are we going to trust the ignorant to report on the complicated - especially when their biases taint their view?

Saturday, December 24, 2005

Why They Don’t Fight…

The Left does not fight because they are not at war…

It was not New York City that was attacked. It was not Washington D.C. that was attacked. It was not the Capital Building that was targeted. It was an icon of global trade and capitalism that was attacked. It was an icon of military power and leadership that was attacked. It was an icon of world political power and dominance that was attacked.

Fundamentally, we know why al Qaeda struck those targets. All Americans know. Deep in our hearts and minds. Al Qaeda struck those targets because they were icons of Western Civilization.

But they are not the respected icons of the Left’s Western Civilization. Thus, to the Left, 9/11 is an egregious crime that must be prosecuted – but not something that challenges their stilted version of our civilization.

So we get the ‘nuanced’ Munich and Syriana. We get peace marches. We get the Lefty media railing that our espionage efforts infringes on privacy rights – without any examples of such espionage infringing on our citizens rights.

Now for something completely different!!! Something unnecessary in any war since at least the birth of the twentieth century. The American public is TELLING you not to denigrate our culture by ignoring the targeted terror of certain sectors of it. We are TELLING you that there is no sophomoric equivalence between the Mossad and the PLO. We are TELLING you that we do not fight for oil, but we will fight for our ideals. We are TELLING you to respect us. Just check out the ratings of Air America and the box office returns on Syriana and Munich (, ). And, that is why I wrote ‘our espionage efforts’ in the preceding paragraph – something certain to cause lefties to grind their teeth. YOU have to understand that WE have to win this war.

However, if you are an Idiotarian Lefty, please understand that the next targets are yours:

  • CNN
  • Paris
  • Toronto
  • Hollywood
  • Amsterdam
  • San Francisco
  • United Nations
  • Gay Pride Parades

Radical Islamists hate the corrupting influence of soft western power as well. The best of them (al Qaeda) target not just people, but icons of our civilization. Thank God, on this Christmas Eve, that al Qaeda targeted the part of America that fights back rather than cowers down!

Thursday, December 22, 2005

'The Democratic Way of War' - A Mental Image...

Re(1): 'Nelson's Medals and Decorations',

I was looking for a vibrant graphic to illustrate a mental image representing ‘The Democratic Way of War’… A way of war which pits a self-blinded and mutilated man in a life and death struggle with barbaric and inhuman enemies.

No hits… None… Nada...

You would think that the party of Vietnam, the Iran Hostage Rescue, and Mogadishu would have a cultural icon representing their war fighting prowess.

I thought I could search for it using '+"self-blinded" +"self-mutilated" +war +hero +Democratic +Party'.

That should do it!!!

Then again, I think that the Moonbat Left doesn’t think we are at war – so maybe we have to wait till there is an obvious enemy… I can only assume that 3000 murders on 9/11 were acceptable casualties in the effort to incarcerate World Court fugitives.

Looks like some enterprising artist is going to have to create the logo from scratch...


However, if one seeks a real blind, one-armed warrior look no farther than:

Somehow, I don’t think Admiral Horatio Nelson comes to mind as the icon of the Modern Democratic Party. Senators Kerry, Boxer, Kennedy, Durbin, and Congresscritters Pelosi, and Murtha probably don't know who Horatio Nelson was. The smarter of the Idiotarians probably think he was an oppressed, physically challenged, non-smoker who died at the hands of violent gun toting militarists…

Oh well…

Saturday, December 17, 2005

Red/Blue in the Middle East!!!

Re(1): 'Daly Thoughts', Gerry Daly
Re(2): 'ECB Classic', Gerry Daly

Seeking a concise graphic demonstrating the political mood of the Middle East, I belatedly remembered Gerry Daly’s fine electoral maps leading up to the United States Presidential election.

To that end, I surmise that the Middle East ‘electoral college’ map at the end of the Clinton Legacy must have looked much like the following *:

Islamic Terror had a complete 'Crescent of Terror' stretching from Iran through Iraq to Syria/Lebanon. A financial and logistics ally was to be found within Wahabist Saudi Arabia. Egypt provided manpower, material, and moral support to the good cause. Pakistan and Afghanistan overtly trained Jihadists on a training schedule reminiscent of Marine Corps Boot Camp. Sunni al Qaeda and Shiite Hezbollah and 'secular' Bathists got along well enough for government work.

Recent polling (Iraqi parliamentary vote for a permanent government, Lebanon election, and anti-terrorist actions in Saudi Arabia) illustrate a structural shift in the Middle East ‘electoral college’.

Iraq has steadily progressed toward becoming a viable member of the civilized world. Additionally, it now has over 290,000 American trained troops which, in concert with the large coalition contingent, acts as a very strong regional blocking force countering state sponsored Islamic Terror. No longer is the 'Crescent of Terror' unbroken. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Pakistan are all fighting Islamic Terror for their own reasons - but at least they are not overt and proud sponsors of terror. Syria has been pushed out of Lebanon - which subsequently voted reasonable leadership into office. Iran is now surrounded - and very susceptible to blockade, covert operations, and overt military strike.

Please visit often to get updates. The next scheduled polling will occur in 2009 when the next Iraqi parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place. Of course, if special elections are scheduled in any of the regional nation states you can expect contemporaneous analysis on these pages.

Readers may cringe at the use of the familiar Red/Blue color coding. Some (Dean/Kerry/Pelosi/Kennedy/Kucinich/etc.) note that the overtly American cultural influence may not be sensitive to all the ‘voters’ or the region. That seeing the world in Red and Blue is simplistic and does not incorporate all the shades of grey in the region. However, I contend that you are ‘with us, or with the terrorists’. That you take the 'Cut and Run' approach to dealing with the ‘root causes’ of Islamic Terror, or you take the ‘Total Victory’ approach. All implications of this statement are known to the author!!!

* State run polls by autocratic totalitarian regimes are as notoriously useless as presidential polls by John Zogby.

Wednesday, December 14, 2005

None for you…

To the Hard Left,
When November 2006 rolls around please understand you will get no credit for:
  • Victory in Iraq
  • Democracy in Iraq
  • Birth of Freedom for millions
  • A Democratic Ally in the Middle East
  • A Growing GDP
  • Full Employment
  • A Shrinking Deficit

You have painted yourselves, and the decrepit Democratic Party, into a corner where predictions of doom and gloom die an inglorious and embarrassing death. The internet, with its ability to store the written word, the telling sound byte, and the irrefutable video clip will not reflect well on your ignorant and silly clique. You will be forgiven, but not forgotten. The web will destroy any attempt by any future Nostradamus diviners in the media to recreate your legacy. Their interpretation of Dean/Kerry/Kennedy/Pelosi/Murtha quatrains will fail miserably in comparison with contemporary discussion by the likes of Fernandez, Roggio, and Mixed Humor

I now give you nothing, ever…

You ARE a waste of time and space...

You get NO credit for the birth of freedom in the Middle East; and the integration of those millions into the community of civilized nations.

Enjoy your decades in the wilderness…

I know this entry is forever, as are this, and this, and this, and this, and this, and this

Those are mine; see ‘My Favorite Posts’ for a small set of fine projections from primary sources…

Sunday, December 11, 2005

Mighty Chinese Armada spotted rounding South Korean peninsula!!!

Re(1): 'The ten-foot tall midget', BelmontClub, Wretchard TC

A vast armada of Chinese coastal patrol boats and freighters was spotted rounding the South Korean peninsula - heading into the open ocean. Satellite surveillance photos show thousands or millions or billions of armed Chinese Army soldiers on the decks of the freighter armada. This is, apparently, a strong and unbeatable military response to America’s very aggressive condemnation of the recent Guangdong Province Windmill massacre.

Sources fear that this fleet is a vanguard attack force expected to strike the beaches of California. The Chinese Armada was moving at the rather brisk pace of six knots when last seen. South Korean, Japanese, and American Air Force assets in the region are warily watching its progress – but are reluctant to attack a motley collection of slow moving freighters. At this pace the potential strike force will require three weeks to reach the west coast of the United States.

As a precaution, the United States is vectoring three Nimitz class carriers and battle groups into the convoy's path. These carrier battle fleets will be in position within three days. Military officials are calling this Operation Red Dawn Overwatch. Sources inside the Pentagon are rather incredulous about this overt military action by the Chinese government. Privately, they express concern that aggressive American action against this force would result in international condemnation and nationwide peace marches. Army sources fear that it will be too late to do anything if the soldiers aboard the freighters off load in San Francisco, Los Angeles, Portland, and/or Seattle. International ANSWER rallies are being organized in each of these ports.

In response, Democrats are generating a cohesive plan in opposition to the Administration. Representative Murtha recommends ‘strategically redeploying our ground forces to Iraq to avoid unnecessary casualties’. Deeply emotional, he lamented the potential loss of American lives if a plane or ship crashes into a Chinese freighter. His strongest concern is that the war will last weeks and weeks. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi came out swinging in strong support for Murtha’s strategy. During a speech at the Cindy Sheehan Peace House, Former Presidential candidate Senator Kerry brazenly challenged the Administration, demanding UN meetings and international conferences. Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean commented that:
this war cannot be won, in fact we have already lost it. We always lose
wars. There are billions of Chinese in this word, and they all seem real mad at
us. This Administration can’t solve everything through military

Many Democrats privately worry that a defeatist attitude regarding defending American cities and soil might further emphasize a perception that Democrats are ‘weak on defense’. They hearken back to President Carter who boycotted the Moscow Olympics as the strong response to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Senator Harkin strongly supports boycotting the Chinese Olympics in a strong show of American resolve.

Diplomatic efforts are being made to determine the military intent of this incursion.

Saturday, December 10, 2005

Three Conjectures – Revisited…

Re(1): 'Donald Rumsfeld on Iraq', BelmontClub, Wretchard TC
Re(2): ‘Three Conjectures’, BelmontClub, Wretchard TC
Re(3): ‘Carnage and Culture’,, Book Reviews
Re(4): ‘The Pentagon’s New Map’, Thomas Barnett
Re(5): ‘The Blitz Comes to London’, BelmontClub, Wretchard TC
Re(6): 'Tribes', EjectEjectEject, William Whittle
Re(7): 'National Strategy for Victory in Iraq',
Re(8): 'Strategic overview',, Den Beste
Re(9): 'The Rise, Peak, Decline and Defeat of Iraq's Insurgency', SecurityWatchTower, Mixed Humor
Re(10): 'Winning the War on Terror', BoghieOnYourSix, Me

In ‘Three Conjectures’ Wretchard postulates that a repeatable WMD strike by Islamic Terror would result in the complete destruction of Islam…

To summarize:

Conjecture 1: Terrorism has lowered the nuclear threshold.
the nuclear threshold against a terrorism may be crossed once they get the capability to attack with weapons of mass destruction. Unlike the old early warning systems, designed to gauge Soviet intent, the intelligence systems of the War on Terror are meant to measure capability. The relevant Cold War question was 'do they intend to use the Bomb?'. In the War on Terror, the relevant question is simply 'do they have the Bomb?' This puts the nuclear threshold very low.
Conjecture 2: Attaining WMDs will destroy Islam

The so-called strengths of Islamic terrorism: fanatical intent; lack of a centralized leadership; absence of a final authority and cellular structure guarantee uncontrollable escalation once the nuclear threshold is crossed. Therefore the 'rational' American response to the initiation of terrorist WMD attack would be all out retaliation from the outset.

Conjecture 3: The War on Terror is the 'Golden Hour' -- the final chance

It is supremely ironic that the survival of the Islamic world should hinge on an American victory in the War on Terror, the last chance to prevent that terrible day in which all the decisions will have already been made for us.

An element Wretchard does not point out in this prescient discussion revolves around ‘the Western Way of War’. In ‘Carnage and Culture’ (published August 14, 2001) , Victor Davis Hanson convincingly postulates a number of conjectures as well:

Conjecture 1: The West can, and does, fight on the enemies turf.

While Eastern modeled autocracies can, and do, strike in the heart of western polities their ability to export war is not sustainable and not conclusive. Easterns autocracies fundamentally fight a raiding style of battle emphasizing face and honor. Conversely, the technologically and economically and socially advanced West shoves the war to the heart of the enemy and seeks to tear that life sustaining organ out of the vanquished – permanently.

Conjecture 2: Once aroused, Democracies Fight Total War

an approach to battle that has been evolving since the time of the ancient Greeks, and that now involves applying maximum discipline and violence at the point of engagement in order to annihilate, not merely defeat, an opponent. William Holmes, Amazon book review of ‘Carnage and Culture’


the direct action model of warfare creates a ruthlessness, a directness, and a constant search for the decisive battle, which Hanson argues, is peculiarly western. Thus in the second world war Marshall argued for the direct frontal assault on German occupied Europe as the correct search for the decisive battle. Newt Gingrich, Amazon book review of ‘Carnage and Culture’

Conjecture 3: The West can, and does, export its values.

Democracies rarely fight with one another. Looking in the crystal ball it is difficult to envision a conflict with democratic Germany, Italy, or Japan. Likewise, there does not seem to be intercene conflict with Australia, Canada, and France. Pax Americana is predicated on the belief that America can, and does, export its values via soft and hard power. Hard power is visible in the military component in the Global War on Terror. Soft power is visible in the growing democratic realities of Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebenon, Jordan, and the Middle East – not to mention the expansion of ideas through mediums that cannot be controlled by the worlds autocracies (Internet, FAXs, cell phones, etc.).

Thus, the west is expanding the core and shrinking the gap. If the idiotic Left and moronic paleocons can be marginalized and/or ignored for a few short months or years the wheel of progress will have rotated beyond the ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. As Wretchard states in ‘The Blitz Comes to London’:

Insular Britain, which fought a long terrorist war against the IRA is one of the hardest targets in the Western world. There is no reason, in principle, why similar attacks cannot happen on a larger or deadlier scale in some American or Australian city, less prepared than London -- or indeed anyplace in the world -- such as Thailand, India or the Philippines -- where they have happened already. As long as Islamic fundamentalist terror exists danger will exist. Liberals may believe that accommodation, appeasement or flattery can change this correspondence. But terrorism will remind the world as often as it needs reminding that there isn't room enough on the planet for Islamic terror and civilization.

Faster. Please.

Solutions can be gleaned within the valuable discussions taking place in these references - and many others. Basically, they fall into two categories:

Wretchard's 3rd Conjecture, as summarized in:

  1. 'National Strategy for Victory in Iraq', Bush Administration
  2. 'Strategic overview', Den Beste
  3. 'The Rise, Peak, Decline and Defeat of Iraq's Insurgency', Mixed Humor
  4. 'Winning the War on Terror', Me

or, regretfully, Wretchard's Second Conjecture - which I postulate does not, in actuality, require a repeatable WMD attack capability by Islamic Terror. Prior even to the possession of WMD; weak, indecisive, dithering, and/or corrupt leadership by the West rolls the wheel in this regrettable direction.

Faster, Please...

Wednesday, December 07, 2005

The Party of Nothing…

Our nation’s polity depends on an adversarial two party system.

We are now a one party state. The only party is the Republican Party. The Democratic Party is all over but the crying. There is no debate from a viable Left. There is no viable Left.

Can one imagine a Howard Dean, John Kerry, Nancy Pelosi, or John Murtha as the leader of a great nation at war? I am not even whining about their current wailing. I cannot envision these leaders of a pathetic clique ever convincing this great nation that anything at all is worth fighting for. Nothing is worth fighting for.

Can one envision Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, or Charles Schumer as leaders of a great nation requiring clear, strong, and decisive leadership? For years now they seem evasive, opportunistic, and conflicted. Nothing they say is believable. Nothing is worth standing for.

Will Americans vote for people they cannot trust, for people who stand for nothing, for people so conflicted they defend nothing? I think not, and increasingly so.

Saturday, December 03, 2005

A New Favorite

Re(1): 'The Rise, Peak, Decline and Defeat of Iraq's Insurgency',, Mixed Humor

Mixed Humor tracks four distinct phases of Iraq's insurgency.

To tempt the six or so folks who actually seem to have this blog in their favorites:
Ultimately 2006 is poised to be a transitional year with more achievements and successes, and more work remains. Certainly there will be violence in Iraq for a long period of time, but the tide has tipped on an insurgency that offers no political alternatives, is experiencing inner divisions between the different groups, has suffered tremendous losses of key leadership and other personnel, and is increasingly seeing their areas of operations challenged.

Tremendous consolidation of coalition/insurgent/civilian statistics...

This article obviously belongs in the 'My Favorite Posts'...

Very Nice Summary...

Recommended Reading List:
'The End of the Beginning', BelmontClub, Wretchard TC
'The Battle for Mosul IV', MichaelYon, Michael Yon
'Oh Bla Di, Oh Bla Da', BoghieOnYourSix, Me



Re(1): 'Two al Qaeda leaders killed in seperate incidents', SecurityWatchTower, Mixed Humor
Re(2): 'The Unstoppable IED', BelmontClub, Wretchard TC
Re(3): 'The Marines in Fallujah', HughHewitt, Hugh Hewitt

1. Americans Bombing Insurgents in Pakistan, Civilian Casualties
‘Human Rights Watch’ is seeking donations of computers and word processors from pacifists the world over. Modern equipment is needed to publicly decry President Bush’s use of assassination in the war on terror… Additionally, America is once again not respecting the sovereign borders of a sovereign nation. As we all know, al Qaeda is in Afghanistan, not Pakistan. Scores, I mean tens, actually ones, of civilian young Arab jihadi innocents die in attack. Other conflicted, but certain, Leftists honorably change their 2001 written opinions that President Bush should have sent assassination squads into Afghanistan to kill Osama bin Laden - and only Osama bin Laden. It is now believed that targeted assassination is just as wrong as an illegal and immoral war. Find another way, but not in our name.

2. Insurgent Collapses Building on Self after Russians Scare Him
“Abu Omar Mohammed bin Abdullah al-Saif, a Saudi al Qaeda commander in Chechnya” committed ritual, heroic, some would say Hannibalistic, suicide by exploding a piece of random ordinance he was carrying with him (for whatever reason). A Chechen doctor carrying a Kalashnikov rifle factually stated that the building was an orphanage in which a wedding party taking place. Thousands of women and children and Abu himself died in the conflagration.

3. Americans Victims of Super Weapons, Have NO Answer…

A roadside bomb kills ten Marines, wounds eleven. A coerced informant tip results in a strike from out of the blue - without giving the jihadis a chance to defend themselves. Thousands of innocent insurgents and acquaintances die every month as a result of the cowardly use of missiles, artillery, and other advanced weaponry. To combat American hegemony, France is seeking UN support in outlawing the use of missiles, rockets, advanced radios, aircraft, aircraft carriers, helicopters, armored vehicles, and military spending in excess of 1% of GDP. If even the French can’t compete in high tech warfare, what are we to say about our insurgent competitors?

Everyday, remind yourself that your nation, country, and civilization are at war...