Sunday, August 21, 2011

Black Swan President - Beware the Bunny!!!

Re(1): 'Monthly Treasury Statement', The U.S. Department of Treasury

Our accomplished Presidential Black Swan is still on a roll!!!

But, President Carter's Killer Bunny is back in the water. Watch out President!!!

I was going to post the fact that the Federal Gubmint Leviathan actually cut spending (on the sly. This President cannot state that fact openly;-}) in May and June. But, I had confidence our Presidential Spender would not mend his ways! And, I was right! His administration securitized assets from Federal retirement accounts - and, had to borrow over $240 Billion to pay it back. Oh well, I didn't have much hope.

But, he is doing something even the biggest spenders in history could not do.

President BushPresident Obama
2001/02/01 - 2001/09/30$ -53,1292009/02/01 - 2009/09/30$ 1,019,780
2002/09/30$ 158,5202010/09/30$ 1,294,204
2003/09/30$ 374,2192011/07/31$ 1,099,901
2004/09/30$ 412,5532012/09/30
2005/09/30$ 318,6152013/09/30
2006/09/30$ 247,6982014/09/30
2007/09/30$ 162,8332015/09/30
2008/09/30$ 454,8062016/09/30
2008/10/01 - 2009/02/01$ 395,9432016/10/01 - 2017/02/01
Totals:$ 2,472,058Totals:$ 3,413,885

Jimmy Carter had his Bunny Moment.

Our current President is waiting for his!

Sunday, August 07, 2011

4th Turning Choices...

Re(1): 'The Long-Term Stakes of the Debt-Ceiling Fracas', Forbes, Brink Lindsey
Re(2): 'The Fourth Turning', William Strauss and Neil Howe
HT: RealClearMarkets

The referenced article is probably the best I have read on the debt ceiling and debt management topic.Basically, it comes down to Boomers not paying for their stuff. So, we have a range of options.

  • Pay for the stuff

  • Cut the stuff

  • A Mix
Now, it might be important to remember that all you Boomers are asking the GenXers to pay the bill.

  • On the positive side, GenXers are pragmatic, self-sufficient, practical, perceptive, and savvy.

  • On the negative side, GenXers are tough, uncultured, amoral, and unfeeling.
In a '4th Turning' the Boomers will promote culture changing ideas, the GenXers will fight. We are watching that now.

In my opinion, we will watch much of the welfare state fat get wiped away in the next ten years. Remember, Boomers are of two minds. The Burlap Sack and Birkenstock archetype and the Gingrich archetype. You know where I stand. And, who has been winning the fight these last twenty years?

If I were to guess, this is in the wings:

  • Balanced Budget - not an Amendment, just the hard choices

  • A Flatter, less 'Progressive' Tax System - Everybody Pays for Stuff

  • An increase in Medicare Taxes - Anyone think 2% pays for Medical Stuff

  • A Cut in Social Security - With the Bush Option of investing part in the Market

  • A Cut in Welfare Benefits - Leading off with Wiping out Benefits for Citizens of another Country

  • A Cut in Defense Spending - But, with a Hard Headed Approach to Benefits, Strategy, and Material

  • A Decimation of Federal Departments that Came into Existence During the 1970s 'Doing What Feels Right' Mood
In affect, the contraction of the Nanny State.I know there are other opinions, but how do you fight for a continuation of not funding your largess? Look back at the GenXers. Do you see hope there? Where are your knife fighters?