Some Reletively Unsubstantiated Thoughts...

1. bin Laden is dead or weak.
2. The tide has turned against al-Qaeda.
3. al-Qaeda's strategic actions seem to take place in Iran and Pakistan.

I have a feeling inside, can't explain...
I have a feeling inside, I can't explain...

But, I can state a few things:
1. We don't want to get beat by Islamists ANYWHERE
2. This conflict is not over when al-Qaeda is wiped out; it is a wider conflict.
3. Iran and Islamist elements of Pakistan will not enjoy Sunni Islamists inside their borders

and, lest we forget some earlier commentary...

We will not definitively know when we have won the conflict...

This 4th of July

Re(1): ‘Harry Jaffe’, The Hugh Hewitt Show
RE(2): 'The Dennis Prager Show', Dennis Pragwer

Listening to Harry Joffrey and Dennis Prager this July 4^th - while debating yet another Conflicted Leftist on ‘Back Talk’ - moved one synapse in my vague and beer addled mind to connect with another…

What do I love and respect about my country – the good old United States of America!!!

I love my nation because we:

• accept imperfection,
  
  
• know we are imperfect,
  
  
• can act on our imperfections,
  
  
• and have the freedom to strive for perfection.

Where else in this fine and diverse abode on which we all live is this true. We accept our imperfections, but have confidence we can challenge and overcome them. Slavery is a perfect example. For the greater good, slavery was actually written into existence - written into the Constitution. But, that Constitution can be, must be, and will be changed. Over 600,000 fellow Americans died to change that central mores – but, we did the right thing.

Additionally, and here I might be on thin beer bleary thin ice, where else on this marble of ours does a nation celebrate its birth as being the date of legal separation. Not a battle won or a war started. But, instead, when a document that defines a belief and presents a grievance is presented to the general populace. Who really remembers the first or last battle in the Revolution?

We remember a perfection written by the naturally imperfect.

The most perfect understanding of humanity yet.

May we always move forward.

God Bless America

Larry's Other Brother Larry - CIA Expert

Re(1): 'Larry Johnson: So wrong so often that he’s actually becoming a nearly-pitch perfect predictor of what’s right', Protein Wisdom, Jeff Goldstein

MessNBC's Terrorism Expert, Larry Johnson...

The best 'byline description' of CIA Master Spy Larry Johnson yet!!!

Once again, Johnson’s wannabe-hipster pessimism — which is temperamentally tied to the grand conspiracy scenarios he and his acolytes like Olbermann cling to like Lindsay Graham might a victory sombrero — has led him to look like an utter “denialist” (hi, Commissar!), one who, if his track record is any indication, wouldn’t be able to spot imminent Islamic terrorism were it wearing a “Hi, I’m a Jihadist” name tag and galloping towards him on a camel wrapped in explosives and sporting a riding blanket made entirely from roofing nails and the severed heads of western journalists.

A target of scorn and humor...

That has to hurt...

Talkin' Tax Code...

Re(1): 'Trick question: "Did the tax cuts pay for themselves?"', The Skeptical Optimist, Steve Conover
Re(2): '2000 Tax Rate Schedules', IRS
Re(3): '2006 Tax Rate Schedules', IRS
Re(4): '2006 Alternative Minimum Tax Schedule', IRS

I am not rich. I am in the 25% tax bracket. Solidly middle class!!!

I am using 2006 inflation adjusted numbers and am increasing the 2000 tax brackets by the inflation adjustment. Adjusted the brackets look like the following:

2000 Federal Tax Schedule for Married Filing Jointly (Inflation adjusted to 2006) :

If taxable income is over-	But not over-	The tax is-
$0	$51,336	$7,700
$51,336	$124,039	$7,700 + 28% of the amout over $51,336
$124,039	$189,014.63	$20,356 + 31% of the amount over $124,039

2006 Federal Tax Schedule for Married Filing Jointly:

If taxable income is over-	But not over-	The tax is-
$0	$15,100	$1,510
$15,100	$61,300	$1,510 + 25% of the amount over $15,100
$61,300	$123,700	$8,440 + 25% of the amount over $61,300
$123,700	$188,450	$24,040 + 28% of the amount over $123,700

(Note: Higher brackets will end up in the AMT. A flat tax!!! Income is flat taxed at 26% or 28% with very restricted deductions - and, no, that hasn't been changed. Thus, higher income earners really don't get a 'tax break' and can't play with their taxes - but, inflation will soon bring the AMT flat tax to you!!!).

If the taxes revert to the pre-2003 code I will be in the 28% tax bracket. That difference does not sound like much, but the fact is that income from $0 - $51,336 is taxed at a higher effective tax rate of 15% rather than 13% (as a side note: why should we all want the bottom two brackets to pay more income tax?).

So, under pre-2003 tax code I would pay the Feds $14,045 for exactly the same service I currently pay the Feds $11,615. Thus, from a married chap firmly in the middle class, the BusHitler tax code nets little old me $2,430 in take home pay - or a little more than $200 bucks a month. Half a car payment, or perhaps paying down the old credit cards a bit faster, maybe investing more into my retirement fund, eh… Lots of options and the government is not there to tell me how to best deal with it. And, to top everything off, the Federal annual budget will be in surplus next year – while looking at $300 - $500 billion dollar annual surpluses for as long as the eye can see if the economy doesn’t tank

Now, more pertinent to the current post by Steve. Will I simply pay the $200 each month and be happy about it?

Nope…

I will act aggressively, as I did in 2000, to reduce my tax burden. I will ‘hide’ more income from the tax man!!! I will be more aggressive in my deductions. I will stop funding a Roth IRA and increase my 401(k) contributions. And, RIGHT NOW, I will take my capital gains from investment growth and move to cash. (and, yes, Marmico that is what I am doing at the present. I want to beat the big time investors to the safety of cash and low tax rates before they act).

So, the increase in personal income tax rates will net the government $0 or maybe even a negative return as I start playing the tax game again. And, what happens to the economy as I move my resources from active assets to tax shelters?

Why should the Feds make me play the game?
Since I feel the taxes are fair I no longer play. I just pay!!!

Memorial Day...

Re(1): 'The Call of Cthulhu', The Belmont Club, Wretchard T.C.
Re(2): 'Americans will die for liberty', The Telegraph, Andrew Gimson

I fear that many confuse the sound of Spartan piping at Thermopylae with the signed or whispered or shouted orders at Diyala and Auschwitz and Andersonville. On this Memorial Day, I think we should take a moment to redefine the difference.

On this day I voice my deep appreciation for the soldiers who have fought - and who are now fighting - men who don the livery of evil. I honor those who have paid the ultimate cost for the ultimate endeavor.

May good always triumph!!!

Sorry Libs, The Federal Deficit will not balloon this year :-&

The one grand hope you have regarding ‘Deficits as Far as the Eye Can See!!!’ is that the spineless Democrat acceptance of the $100 Billion in ‘off-budget’ Iraq Occupation supplemental will bust the budget. It will not. You will have to hope for more al-Qaeda murders (whoops, I forgot. The freedom fighting group that calls itself ‘Al-Qaeda In Iraq’ is not in Iraq) and Biblical natural disasters to blow the improving budget outlook.

Why? Three reasons:

1. The Defense Department is currently spending as if the supplemental was passed
2. And, even the DOD cannot spend that kind of money that quickly
3. And, the stock market is boiling…

Thus, there will be no marked increase in monthly spending. The DOD will simply backfill other budget line items. And, folks are still making tons of taxable money in the stock market - even if the market crashes!!!.

I expect an FY2007 deficit (for you Lib ignits October 2006 to September 2007) to be about $70 Billion. That is, less than 0.6% of GDP. Yup, rounding error - or the equivalent of a six pack of cheap beer per month for Americans at the poverty level.

There is always hope. Maybe you all could create al-Qaeda influenced cells here in America and prove that playing offense in the Middle East is not making Americans safer here. What will you call your organization – ‘Ignit Lefty al-Qaeda Supplicants in America’. Has a nice ring to it!!!

Deficit News You Won't Hear on MessNBC!!!

Re(1): 'Montly Budget Review, May 2007', Congressional Budget Office
Re(2): 'Monthly Treasury Statement, April 2007', United States Treasury

Carnac must retire from the Federal Budget prognostication business...

I mentioned in an earlier post that BusHitler, the 'Great Monkey Ape', seemed to be streamlining the budget process. I even mentioned the whole TQM approach of measuring and managing processes. The fact that the woefully incompetent - and slow - Congressional Budget Office is quickly reviewing and posting information based on the Monthly Treasury Statement is testament to that fact that the budget process is now more manageable.

The CBO actually crunched and posted an adjustment to their estimates four days after the end of April. This is very good, and a very positive thang. But, if they did it right it does make predicting tax receipts and government expenditures a bit boring.

Oh well...

Here are the numbers:

	April	to Date	Change	Annual Projection
Revenues:	$385	$1,506	+11.3%	$2,677,533
Expenditures:	$209	$1,589	+2.9%	$2,731,353
Deficit:	$176 surplus	$83	-54.9%	$53,831

However, things are far bleaker if one uses the ratios from the remaining months as the determinant factors:

	April	to Date	Change	Annual Projection
Revenues:	$385	$1,506	+12.1%	$2,697,449
Expenditures:	$209	$1,589	+6.3%	$2,822,886
Deficit:	$176 surplus	$83	-49.6%	$125,437

This would incorporate the $100 Billion dollar Defense Supplimental. Even the DOD can only spend so much money a month on gold plated screwdrivers!!!

But, and this is a rather large sized but...

There is no additional Katrina money being spent!!!

Thus, I still lean toward my preseason pick of $68 Billion as the FY2007 deficit...

Oh, the humanity...

My guess is that we will hear nothing of this. I mean the gnashing of teeth over a deficit of 0.51% of GDP should be audible from the moon.

The end is near...

The end of annual deficits, I mean!!!

Implicitly Included...

Re(1): 'Russian Muslims Seething Over Beslan Memorial', LGF
Re(2): 'Beslan memorial plan angers Russian Muslim leader', Reuters, Christian Lowe

To me the key paragraph is:

"It is not acceptable to present this tragedy as the tragedy of followers of only one religion," Sheikh Ravil Gainutdin, chairman of the Council of Russian Muftis, said in a statement.

"We need a monument on this site that symbolises a national tragedy, without any religious undertones, where everyone can come and shed their tears."

My response to the concerns expressed by Sheikh Ravil Gainutdin, chairman of the Council of Russian Muftis, is that his religion is included in the proposed document...

It wouldn't be their but for Radical Islamism!!!

Carnac the Magnificent: Deficits as Far as the Ey Can See!!!

Re(1): 'Monthly Treasury Statement - February'

Tomorrow, Paul Krugman will explode in almost sexual release.

He will have to dry clean his shorts because the annual running total of the US Deficit will again exceed $100 Billion. It might be as much as $150 Billion. Only five months into BusHitler's proliferate budgetary wastage. Oh the joy for Paul Krugman et. al. If only we could also incorporate a recession he could kill his column knowing he was right in the end!!!

A horror…

A Tragedy…

That damn monkey of a President took surpluses as far as the eye could see and turned them into Halliburton profits. What he will neglect to tell his honored readers (actually, patients) is that February is normally a miserable month for tax receipts – and usually a boon for government bloat. For example, one can watch the effects of the ‘War for Oil and the Subjugation of Brown People’ Supplementals on expenditures over the past few years.

February revenues are fairly easy to SWAG. My guess is that it will come in at about $126 Billion – which, by the way, is $24 Billion higher than FY1997’s February revenue stream inflation adjusted.

February expenditures are all over the map. If you model your numbers on the mid-1990’s than you expect expenditure numbers for February to be about 4% higher than January. If you use war-time number you expect a growth of 7% - 8%. I am actually going to run for safety and assume a growth rate of February over January of about 4%. That’s right Randy Rhodent listeners – I am going to assume February numbers roughly equivalent to Clinton’s era PAX Americana when we were not killing people who declared war on us.

Oh my god, how can one be so naïve. Here is one good reason. After studying the numbers it has become apparent that our ignorant fool of a President is normalizing the budget process. That is, he is lucking into a process that is more predictable. To summarize:

	February	to Date	Change	Annual Projection
Revenues:	$126	$961	+10.0%	$2,646,249
Expenditures:	$231	$1,108	+1.5%	$2,707,464
Deficit:	$105	$147	-32.5%	-81%

Now here is a very odd thought.It is very conceivable that expenditures will be in the $218 Billion range and revenues in the $128 Billion range. That will result in: Revenue:

	February	to Date	Change	Annual Projection
Revenues:	$128	$962	+10.2%	$2,719,543
Expenditures:	$218	$1,094	-2.0%	$2,707,464
Deficit:	$90	$132	-39.5%	-104%

Folks, at those numbers we are looking at a surplus in September 2007.

Me still thinks we will run a small deficit. There will be a supplemental for our egregious war on civilization – one that occurs later this year than in years past. But, the deficit will be so minimal as to be rounding error. However, one can hope that Byrd and Stevens can’t get it together to carve up the pork on their serving plate. So far, the split leadership can’t agree on who gets which cuts. Maybe the big eaters will starve for a year, eh…

Internal Intrigue/External Failure...

Re(1): 'The Truce is Over', The Belmont Club, Wretchard T.C.
Re(2): '"Supporting the Troops" Means... Supporting the Troops', My Sandmen, Major Mike

Internal intrigues are not the true equal to external dangers.

Intrigue simply paves the way for externally driven destruction. When internal conflict seems more at hand than the external enemy we focus on the internal. However, it is the outside threat that destroys a state, a culture, a civilization.

Ask these questions:

Why is the Hagia Sofia a mosque?
Do you respect the Greek Navy?
Why is Latin a dead language?

So, a vocal minority and the silly masses in America compete ever more belligerently in a forty year long culture war while various external threats smolder. Many discount – or prejudge as inconsequential and ineffective – the external threats we face to our state, our culture, and our civilization. But, the threat of rolling back ‘the Great Leap Forward’ brings out the battle standards.

So, think this through. Our culture can internally shift more traditional – but progressives can continue to agitate for goals in-line with that value structure. Our culture values that agitation. Our culture requires that agitation. However, enemies outside our cultural umbrella do not respect and do not value much of anything fought over in the Culture War. They want to see it end.

Why is an Illini not an Indian?
Where is the Christmas Pageant?
Is there anything worth fighting for?

Thermopylae/Herdonia- And Choices Made...

Re(1): '17 Republicans Join the White Flag Caucus ', Victory Caucus, NZ Bear
Re(2): 'Battle of Thermopylae', Wikipedia
Re(3): 'Battle of Herdonia', Wikipedia

When sending men off to battle Spartan women told their men to come home with your shield or on it. The men were to fight and return with dignity or die trying.

However, You never drop your shield…

Simply put, you die when you drop your shield.

You die an inglorious death. A death without dignity or meaning. You do not face the enemy with your armor. You have nobody protecting your flanks. You get stabbed in the back – by an unforgiving victor. That enemy then moves onward – ever closer to your home and hearth. Dropping shields and fleeing fields resulted in the greatest massacres in military history. And, each coward's last thought is this truth.

The Libs have for years whined about the martial apect of American sports. They hate the reality that while on the court you can win, you can lose, but you do not quit…

The following Republicans dropped their shields today:

Representative James T. Walsh
Phone: 202-225-3701
Fax: 202-225-4042
Web Email

Representative Walter Jones
Phone: 202-225-3415
Fax: 202-225-3286
Web Email

Representative Wayne Gilchrest
Phone: 202-225-5311
Fax: 202-225-0254
Web Email

Representative Michael Castle
Phone: 202-225-4165
Fax: 202-225-2291
Web Email

Representative Richard (Ric) Keller
Phone: 202-225-2176
Fax: 202-225-0999
Web Email

Representative Philip Sheridan English
Phone: 202-225-5406
Fax: 202-225-3103
Web Email

Representative Ronald Ernest Paul
Phone: 202-225-2831
Web Email

Representative Frederick Stephen Upton
Phone: 202-225-3761
Fax: 202-225-4986
Web Email

Representative Thomas M. Davis
Phone: 202-225-1492
Fax: 202-225-3071
Web Email

Representative Mark Kirk
Phone: 202-225-4835
Fax: 202-225-0837
Web Email

Representative Howard Coble
Phone: 202-225-3065
Fax: 202-225-8611
Web Email

Representative John J. Duncan Jr.
Phone: 202-225-5435
Fax: 202-225-6440
Web Email

Representative James Ramstad
Phone: 202-225-2871
Fax: 202-225-6351
Web Email

Representative Steven C. LaTOURETTE
Phone: 202-225-5731
Fax: 202-225-3307
Web Email

Representative Robert Inglis
Phone: 202-225-6030
Fax: 202-226-1177
Web Email

Representative Timothy V. Johnson
Phone: 202-225-2371
Fax: 202-226-0791
Web Email

Representative Thomas Petri
Phone: 202-225-2476
Fax: 202-225-2356
Web Email

They shall only be remembered because they will never be forgiven…

Sorry Libs, the Federal Budget is Balancing!!!

Re(1): 'Monthly Treasury Statement numbers for the first four months of FY2007'
Re(2): 'Federal Budget Slashing in Progress', Me
Re(3): 'Watching the Deficit', Me
Re(4): 'Brad and Other Libs Miss Deficit by Just 39%!!!' Me
Re(5): 'Budget Deficit Estimation' (FY2006), Me

Here comes another Monthly Treasury Statement - and, yes Randi Rhodent listeners, the Monthly Treasury Statement includes all the 'Emergency Supplimentals' for the War or whatever. Please, dear Rhodents, don't send me estimated budgets that still project a $423 Billion deficit for FY2006 - those numbers are all in and you lost...

So the MTS balance sheet will magically appear at 0900 EST on February 12 - the eighth working day after the end of the month. If you are reading this prior to that date/time Do Not Click. It ain't there. This is a premonition.

Here are the predictions:

1. Individual Income Tax Revenue will increase (~10%)...
2. Social Security Payroll Tax Revenue will increase (~10%)...
3. Corporate Income Tax Revenue will increase significantly (~20%)...
   
4. and, split government will limit the increase of Federal Spending to 2%

How does that affect the deficit. The spending constraint is holding - nobody can figure out how to slice up the yummy pork just sitting there on the table. The tax code changes are still resulting in a massive and reliable rate of growth in corporate income tax revenue (see earlier discussions on the dividend tax code changes). More people are working and thus paying the Social Security tax. And, wages are increasing - resulting in both individual income and social security revenue taxes increasing concurrently. So, I am adjusting the earlier chart to reflect these facets:

	Growth	Revenue	Expenditures	Deficit
FY2006		2,406,675	2,654,873	-248,197
FY2007	+8%	2,599,209	2,707,970	-108,761
	+9%	2,623,276		-84,694
	+10%	2,647,343		-60,627
	+11%	2,671,409		-36,561
	+12%	2,695,476		-12,494
	+13%	2,719,543		+11,573
	+14%	2,743,610		+35,640
	+15%	2,767,676		+59,706

I think the 2% growth in Federal spending will hold this year. Even the Libs can't spend all the money allocated to their pet projects. And, the military will not be able to spend all that is thrown their way - for the second year in a row!!!

I now think we will have about 11% revenue growth in FY2007.

Please note the sweet spot in the above chart. Recent trends indicate that the Monthly Treasury Statement numbers for the running deficit first four months of FY2007 will be about 1/3rd of the total deficit - no big surprise, eh... However, posting large December/January back to back surpluses portend very good things...

My projections for a $60 Billion deficit imply a $40 Billion dollar surplus for January.
That will match with the $44 Billion surplus for December.
Good things are happening...

Hamas - 'A Man We Can Deal With'!!!

Re(1): 'Of Course', The Belmont Club, Wretchard T.C.
Re(2): 'Hamas Wants West to End Blockade', The Age

Progress It Is!!!

"We have agreed with the Saudis to market this agreement internationally."

Hamas will market New Terror!!! A more overt, state sponsored, and state
protected variant of the barbarism they currently aspire too. Maybe they can use
AP to Photoshop the old 'New Coke' ads to save money!!!

"We will never recognize Israel. There is nothing called Israel"

That is an agreement all Fascists can start with. Actually, not all Fascists.
Many Fascists find other scapegoats - but the real ones can always hearken to
the golden oldie!!! We westerners can dust off the Chamberlain backgrounders on
how to deal with Fascists – especially when we identify ‘a man we can work
with’. Heck, maybe dust off the ‘Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact’ if we are really
adventurous and/or duplicitous!

"We, in the Hamas movement, will not abide by anything."

There always has to be a starting point, eh. The Global Community has to find
the lowest common denominator to initiate a frank and open discussion. I think
this might be the lowest common denominator ever brought into the peace process.
Maybe even a bit lower than ceding a sovereign nation to Nazi Germany.

I don’t know…

Bring on Jimmy…

Only Time will tell!!!

The Arkin Man and His Poison...

Re(1): ‘The Troops Also Need to Support the American People, Washington Post, A Blitzed William Arkin
Re(2): 'The Arrogant and Intolerant Speak Out', Washington Post, Arkin in the Drunk Tank
Re(3): 'A Note to My Readers', Washington Post, A William Arkin under treatment

I am on a bender too!!!

Not really…

But I am enjoying a glass of ‘Beaulieu Vineyard 2004 Beauzeaux’ that to my pitiful palette is very good. Very good indeed…

But why admit to Boozin’ While Bloggin’?

Because, a Mr. Arkin seems to have the same affliction.

Mr. Arkin posted an ‘Early Warning’ on the WoPo blog while on an end-game drunk. The one question I had (that I attempted to post, but was not permitted to) revolved around a bit too much booze and a whole lotta prune juice. I thought he emptied his shit-bag of an 'id' on the crap paper we know as the Washington Post. Oh, well… I probably should have softened my tone...

So, Arkin sobers up a bit yesterday and writes an apology – sort of… It is I who is arrogant. Not he. While I have never, will never, and can never, have the honor of serving my nation in the military I still take affront to this. He accomplished this feat of excellence one day after a full on slobbering binge – but only sober enough to create complete sentences of acceptable structure. Must have been difficult, though…

And now, our hero – the Arkin Man – has sobered to the point on quasi-apology. But, how do you apologize for stating what you believe? You can’t….

I love it when some brilliant piece of shit - one I could decimate on any topic - informs me to appreciate his betters. Since this blog entry is the first to cuss I will puctuate it with a hearty Fuck You to the Arkin Man...

I hope there is a 12 Step Program for Boozin’ Haters of America…

Yeah, that’s the ticket…

Adding and Deleting...

To All 5 Readers (or maybe just myself on five different machines, eh):

The Good:

The blog 'Back Talk' is now linked permanently in my blog roll. It has become one of the few I roll through (see below) when I have some time. His analysis using objective data is impressive. I think he has influenced my style without me knowing it. That style differs, but complements, the more subjective observations of Wretchard, MM, Atos, and the Anchoress. Obviously it differs from the on-site efforts of Roggio and Yon. Like Wretchard and Atos and Roggio he has a strategic overview sense of things. Always worth reviewing.

The Bad:

I hope this is not the case but it appears that SecurityWatchTower fell off the map. I don't know if C.S. Scott and the rest are just changing hosts or what. Regardless, their site is now mapped to an open domain. I regret this far more than most will ever know. SecurityWatchtower was one of the first three sites I would visit whenever I started a blog surf. The others being 'The Belmont Club', and Instapundit. That is not bad company. I know the folks at SecurityWatchtower peruse this site every once in a while - please point me to the new domain!!!

The Ugly:

But, rather funny... I am still banned from Brave Sir DeLong's (the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury under President Clinton) slightly errant web-site. While not a brain surgeon, I can look at ratios and trends. Brad, if those ratios and trends do not change than your system is in stasis. The economy, and the federal budgets are at least in stasis. Maybe you are coming to that realization because you now have very few posts on the federal deficit. I value your vaunted opinion as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury under
President Clinton. Are you waiting for a terrorist hit to wipe out a city to bitch and whine about Bush's Budget Follies again!!! Come on Brad, give me a shot at the sycophants that post on your site - and don't delete the comments when they are objective, factual, and sourced - eh... Apparently Mr. DeLong - the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury under President Clinton - deleted
ALL of my comments on the post in question. It looks like your brain surgeon sycophants are arguing with a rock. Even Arianna Huffington was more honest with her readers than thee - she relinked the entire thread she was hammered in...

Federal Budget Slashing in Progress…

Re(1): ‘U.S. Senate Committee on Appropriations – Continuing Resolution’

Oh, Dear God…

Death and Dismemberment…

How can we survive the budget cuts of FY2007?

The homeless… The children… Our Education… The military… Health Insurance... Science… Temple Construction… Monument Design… Wars of Imperialism… The Fourth Reich… My Mental State of Being…

Hear the howls of protest and derision?

No, neither do I.

Quietly, the inability of the Oinkers from the Right to agree with the Swine from the Left resulted in budgetary gridlock through at least February!!! Dear God, most of the Federal Government must cinch its belt and survive on last year’s budget.

Oh, the humanity.

But, there is a silver lining in every cloud. If our nation’s governmental apparatus does not collapse into the very dust of its own substance as a result of these severe cutbacks (one year’s inflation – ie. about 2%) we might be looking at a budget surplus for FY2007. Here is how the numbers work out:

	Growth	Revenue	Expenditures	Deficit
FY2006		2406675	2654873	-248197
FY2007	+8%	2599209	2740529*	-141320
	+9%	2623276		-117253
	+10%	2647343		-93187
	+11%	2671409		-69120
	+12%	2695476		-45053
	+13%	2719543		-20968
	+14%	2743610		3080
	+15%	2767676		27141

The revenue numbers are the actual revenues for FY2006 and projections derived from expected growth - and, no, these are not silly CBO and OMB numbers that project a decrease in tax revenue. It ain't going to happen Lefties so get over it. Personally, I think the growth noted with the grey background is most likely - but things are starting to look even better as the month of January has moved on... Thus, it is not silly to start looking at the +13% - +15% numbers.

Actually, it might be a bit better. I am using projected growth for the Department of Defense and the Department of Health and Human Services to generate the expenditure number. These seem to be the only Departments that are still complaining about their belly ‘dunlapping’ over their belts. Unbelievably, however, the expenditures are almost flat this quarter. But, lets not hope for the best and get slammed in the face. We can be certain that big chunks of both political American Parties can agree on one thing - and one thing only. Even a blind sow can find an acorn in the trough, eh...

I don’t know how we are going to survive.

I will have to feed, water, clothe, house, and transport myself.

Oh, the humanity!!!

A Letter to the Press Corps

Re(1): 'Et Tu, Press Corps?', Extreme Mortman

A post at Extreme Mortman provided access to a petulant letter submitted by the print media regarding the exemption of still photographer access to the President during the January 10, 2007 Presidential Speech. My God, the still photographers were unable to snap three thousand photos and pick a chimpy image of our President during a wartime speech on wartime strategy. Here is a response to Tom - who seems to be a decent and professional still photographer for the media:

Tom,

Tell me again, why as a citizen of the United States of America - during wartime (and I know most of your profession does not think we are at war) - I am forced to place into history another photo selected by a childish press corps that tries to outdo each other in the picking of smirks and pursed lips of a leader at war.

This was a serious speech at a serious time.

While the still photographers might be serious people - but, that seems to be in question as well - your editors are not serious people.

Would the WWII press corps select an especially weak and powerless image of President Roosevelt after Rommel crushed the United States at the Kasserine Pass? The press corps at that time was mature enough not too. Please claim they did not have those photos. How about those photos of Nimitz, Stimson, or Roosevelt after Pearl Harbor. Where are the peoples’ photos during the months of stalemate following D-Day – or maybe even some doubting and worried images in the NYT during D-Day? Not on the cover of the NYT or the Left Angeles Times.

Regretfully, your profession has lost the confidence of the American people.

That, by the way, is a very bad thing.

I do not like or enjoy it.

But, it is true.

Deal with it… I was hoping the embed process would initiate younger journalist into the fog of war and into the righteousness of this conflict. I was hoping the young embeds, as they migrated back into the stateside newsrooms, would add balance, common sense, and an understanding that we are doing the right thing. That they could battle the old War Horse Vietnam Cadre Press Corps that denigrates anything they touch. Regretfully, the American people lost that battle. But, as you can see, the American people are not losing the war. We are ignoring you. We are seeking information from other sources. We no longer care about your privileges and pompous demands. It is not you that is being denigrated; it
is the other 90% of your profession that is being trashed. Your profession is seen as no better than biased bloggers – but at least the bloggers note their biases.

You still have time to turn this around, can you see what you have to do.

Sorry.

Lib Martial Music: Over Here!!!, Over There, Over Where???

Re(1): Congressman John Murtha's Redeployment 'Plan'

Ok Libs, I Give – Tell Me Where to Redeploy…

I have heard Democratic CongressCritters holler about a ‘Redeployment Plan’ for our fighting forces in Iraq. This implies a few things:

1. That they know where to redeploy the troops
2. That the troops can redeploy into Iraq if necessary

Given these two axioms, please use the comments to provide the country in which we can redeploy our 150,000 American troops – and still be scary enough to deter Islamofascist aggression.

Here are some factoids to take into consideration:

1. The ‘horizon line’ is 25 miles. Thus, to ‘deploy just over the horizon’ implies redeploying our troops a half hour outside of Baghdad. Here is a map of the Baghdad region for your perusal:

2. Maybe you are talking about the borders of Iraq. Redeploying ‘over the horizon’ of Iraq’s borders means a large military footprint in Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Syria. You could, of course, attempt to force Kuwait to accept a huge military infrastructure on their tiny territory – but that might not be too sensible if there is a threat of WMD attack (and Iran has, and has used, WMD). Jordan is land-locked and moving units through Israel to Jordan will not be popular with the new Caliphate or Terror State. Here is a map of the region you can use as a convenient tool to identify the sovereign state that would, and could, gladly accept our 150,000 troops:

3. Maybe, the horizon line extends to any part of the world reachable by the fastest terrestrial vehicle known to man. I think we have clocked jet cars at about 300 miles/hour on the salt flats. I think, however, that it will take some time to invent and build troop transport capable of 300 miles/hour. And, to do it in an environmentally safe manner might be impossible!

4. Maybe that horizon line is a Blackbird wing away. However, for this brilliant solution to succeed we have to overcome even more problems than noted in point 3.

Thus, I think those who take the challenge seriously must be restricted to the environs of Baghdad, the Anbar Province, or the nation states bordering Iraq. As a secondary challenge, please provide a military and tactical reason to surrender a hill taken – just to attack it again in the near future.

Where are we redeploying to? Your turn:

Culture of Corruption - Big Tuna Lobby buys off Speaker!!!

Re(1): 'GOP hits Pelosi's 'hypocrisy' on wage bill', Washington Times, Charles Hurt
Re(2): 'Clock ticking on Dems' 100-hour agenda', Associated Press, Kasie Hunt

It is true

:-&

At some indeterminate timeslice in



Speaker Pelosi’s Magnificent First 100 Hours (or so)

we have been made aware of the influence of the


Big Tuna lobby.

Watching the Deficit???

Re(1): Monthly Treasury Statement 2006/12 (FY2007)
Re(2): 'Dubya's New Plan to Balance the U.S. Budget', The Daily Reckoning, Ian Mathias

Howdy Folks - all five readers. The above link doesn't exist yet. It will magically appear tomorrow. Will it tell a story tomorrow that is better or worse than what follows...

Prediction Time...
But, with lots of caveats...

It is rather dumb to predict Federal spending with two months of data. So these numbers shouldn't be used when debating some Lib. Next months numbers will provide enough data to whack-a-mole a Lib or two and win some bets.

However, here is one recent bet I made and won: President Bush promised to cut the deficit in half by FY2009 (his last budget). He made that promise using the CBO FY2004 estimate of a $512 Billion dollar deficit. The media scoffed, the Dems wailed... 1/2 of $512 Billion is $256 Billion. Last years deficit was $247 Billion. He wins, I win. At least I got a decent lunch out of it. What did Bush get for being right and being early. Nada.

Now for this year (FY2007).

Right now we are running a $124 Billion deficit - a 4.31% reduction from last year. Revenues are up 8.75% while spending is up a mere 4.74%.

The interesting factoid is that the Gubmint is running without a budget and cannot exceed last years spending by more than inflation. What does that mean in the greater scheme of things.

1. We might hold spending to a 4% increase
2. Even that spending might be reduced because of gridlock
3. And, we will not be funding Katrina (already paid for last year)
4. And who knows about the annual $100 Billion military supplemental

Thus, we are looking at FY2007 1st Qtr (2006/12) numbers as follows:

• Receipts: $588,533 Million
• Outlays: $669,004 Million
• Deficit: $ 80,471 Million

With those numbers we are looking at annual FY2007 numbers as follows:

• Receipts: $2,671,409 Million
• Outlays: $2,734,524 Million
• Deficit: $ 63,115 Million

Our GDP will be about $13,000,000 Million
The deficit will consume 0.49% of GDP
The deficit will be 2.3% of spending

And, the budget will be in surplus in FY2008 - just in time for the Presidential Elections!!!

Rosy... Me thinks not. The worse case scenario (not including acts of God and the like) would result in an FY2007 deficit of $145 Billion. Basically, the growing economy and the minimal spending restraint shown by the Pigs in the Trough lop off about $100 Billion a year in the defict. Thus, by FY2009 we are looking at a surplus of between $50 Billion and $130 Billion...

Quite a Legacy, eh...