See those specks, up in the air, a Black Swan?

Re(1): 'Fire and Ice', The Belmont Club, Wretchard
Re(2): 'Engagement Queue', The Belmont Club, Wretchard

There is a difference between Risk and Uncertainty...

University of Chicago Professor Frank Knight described the distinction between risk and uncertainty in these words. “Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated…. The essential fact is that ‘risk’ means in some cases a quantity susceptible of measurement, while at other times it is something distinctly not of this character … It will appear that a measurable uncertainty, or ‘risk’ proper, as we shall use the term, is so far different from an unmeasurable one that it is not in effect an uncertainty at all.” In other words, Knight wanted to differentiate between risks we could measure and those which we could not estimate. Donald Rumsfeld conveyed the same idea much more eloquently and comprehensively.

As we know,
There are known knowns.
There are things we know we know.
We also know there are known unknowns.
That is to say, we know there are some things we do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don’t know we don’t know.

The Black Swan event is not a risk, it is an unmeasurable uncertainty. We have lived through a few Black Swans in the last decade. This stock market - which actually feels rather like a standard growth market - is with high probability measurable, and thus has risk. We may get a 10% contraction - a correction - but, that is normal and measurable and acceptable. A market move like that is NOT uncertain. It will happen. It is not the Black Swan of new crash.The Black Swan event that is setting up will be the 'leaker' that gets through the defense. I don't think the next Black Swan will be the same one we just saw. We have multiple inbounds, multiple adversaries, and discordant directors. As Wretchard states:

Yet with events coming at a fast and furious pace it will always be problematic whether the response will be quick enough; or whether a “leaker” will get through to change the game even faster than is happening now. Emergence tends to throw curve balls. They also tend to speed up the ball-throwing machine. In some things people must trust to luck, not just to avoid dangers but to seize opportunities.

But luck favors the ready.

Things seem to be moving rapidly.

Keep your head on a swivel.

Look, talk on defense.

Be ready...

Looking Forward to 2011 Already...

The evil BusHitler's great tax giveaway to the corpulant wealthy of Nazi America is about to sunset...

On this very day next year the pathetic slugs that stole so much over the past decade will be taxed at the same rates as they were during 'The One' administration prior to "The One's administration". Here is a comparison for folks filing as Married Filing Jointly:

I know this looks like everybody is getting jobbed, but that just ain't so. Those rich bastards (and their families) making a hundred G's will get whacked for $3,464 more per year. So what if you get knocked up for an additional $2,560 a year. You can handle it. It's just $215 less take home pay for the month. What is that - gas, electricity, food. Just cut the fat and enjoy the schadenfreude.

This example of justice is inflation adjusted (uses 2009 dollars), uses the 2009 tax schedule, and uses a 2000 inflation adjusted tax schedule to demonstrate this power to the people moment.

And, lookie here everybody.

That Moronic BushChimp sunsetted his tax giveaway just after folks vote in November 2010. Just after the vote. Nobody will be talking about it before it happens. And, nobody will be adjusting their taxable income either till after it hits em.

What a waste of air!!

What an idiot!!!

Chimp!!!

Single Plier Health Care...

Re(1): 'A Land Fit For Heroes', The Belmont Club, Richard Fernandez

Re(2): 'Man pulls out 13 of his own teeth with pliers 'because he couldn't find an NHS dentist'', The Daily Mail





A picture is worth a thousand words.

Each word Free

Priceless

That Pesky Obama Deficit Chart Thany

Re(1) 'Let it come down', Obsidian Wings, Von
RE(3): Monthly Treasury Statement

To All,

The standard argument against:

is being fought again by libs in the comments section of Obsidian Wings. Von is 100% correct. The numbers from Bush's years are ACTUAL numbers and come from the 'Monthly Treasury Statement'. These numbers are actual expenditures - not budget projections. In fact BusHitlers budgeted deficits were generally FAR HIGHER than the actual deficts. Regardless, the Monthly Treasury Statement includes the annual war supplimental. That site is an exceptional resource. It is located at:

http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts

Use the September reports to get full Fiscal Year data.

And, yes, without the FY2007 war supplimental we were looking at a deficit of about $70 Billion. You can see the DOD splurge on receiving the supplimental.

And, the total cost of the war has been about $100 Billion/year. A cost President Obama has elected to continue.

And, Bush had a role in the FY2009 bloat. But had nothing to do with the 'Emergency Stimulus Bill ($860 Billion) nor any of the other 'emergency' spending that occured after January 19th (more auto and bank bailouts). He is responsible for TARP - which never was completely obligated (and will not be) and is now being paid back (at least in part). Will President Obama's 'Stimulus' be paid back. Nope. Splitting the blame will actually be fairly simple. Bush - TARP. Obama - Everything else. We will, however, have to wait till someone breaks it down. We have to wait to see if the banks are stupid enough to keep enslaving themselves via TARP bailout cash. I think it is clear they are staying far far away from the TARP Baby.

And, at what point in the Bush Presidency was there ANY talk of defaulting on Treasury debt or inflating our way out of paying it?

And, the evil BusHitler warned us in 2000 and 2004 that Social Security was heading into the red by 2008/09. And, yup, it shore is bubbas.

Son of Spendulus is the Master Spender

Re(1): 'Monthly Treasury Statement', The U.S. Department of Treasury

Just a note, just a note...

The numbers for President Bush are actual. The numbers for President Obama are projected. The Bush numbers include any money spent during his administration for the war and TARP.

President Bush				President Obama
Year	Deficit			Year	Deficit
2001/09/30	$ -127,165			2009/09/30	$ 1,750,000
2002/09/30	$ 158,520			2010/09/30
2003/09/30	$ 374,219			2011/09/30
2004/09/30	$ 412,553			2012/09/30
2005/09/30	$ 318,615			2013/09/30
2006/09/30	$ 247,698			2014/09/30
2007/09/30	$ 162,833			2015/09/30
2008/09/30	$ 454,806			2016/09/30
Totals:	$ 2,002,079			Totals:			$ 1,750,000

President Obama has just authorized running a single year deficit that is 82% of President Bush's entire deficit accrued over eight years as President. President Bush did not play a part in the $840 Billion dollar Spendulus bill. President Bush did not play a part in the $410 Billion dollar Son of Spenulus. President Bush has not played a part in spending anything since President Obama gained control of the government.

Who is a better steward of the citizens contributions toward our Federal government???

President Obama, this thing is yours...

Social Security - Rolling Over...

Re(1): Monthly Treasury Statement FY2008
Re(2): Monthly Treasury Statement FY2009

I hate to break this to everybody, but BusHitler was right regarding Social Security. He campaigned on changing it in 2000 and 2004. He stated that FY2009 would be the year Social Secuirity revenue would be exceeded by Social Security expenditures.

That moron hit it on the mark.

Last fiscal year Social Security revenue/expenses were about even:

• Revenue: 658,045
• Expenditures: 657,799

This years projection, not so good:

• Revenue: 682,373
• Expenditures: 699,976

Folks, this is the first year that the government doesn't get to incorporate a Social Security surplus into its revenue stream to buy 'Bridges to Nowhere'!!!

Obviously, with unemployment being 7.6% rather than 4.6% the revenue from payroll taxes will reduce - but that was NOT incorporated into the projections!!! So it will be worse!!!

And, now President Obama wants to spend more money - with comments that it is the spending that counts, not judicious spending. Just spending.

Finally, BusHitler was right. The long term benefits of compounding interest investment requires a long term. He figured eight years. Then prayed four years would be enough. Bubbas, we gave him nothing (and, noting todays stock market collapse if you just watched your investments rather than moved them, nothing might have been for the best!!!).

Now, President Obama is six inches into the hole - a hole he probably knew nothing about. He was talking about Hope and Change. The time for small, incremental change is over!!! I Hope he can come up with a new financial Change that is not a killer!!!

Folks, we punched ourselved in the face.

Invest in The New 'Treasury Turd Bonds'

Re(1): 'It's not a bailout; it's the dollar's credibility', The Skeptical Optimist, Steve Canover

Let us postulate that the government funds the purchase of the cookies with Treasuries. If our brilliant government asset managers (maybe borrow some expertise from Fannie Mae or Freddy Mac) can melt, mash, and refine the assets - separating the turds from the chocolate - than you have at least two piles of assets. The pile over here is comprised of quite tasty chocolate chip cookies. Yummy. I think I saw Barney Frank romping and chomping on that pile. But, over here, a nauseating fecal smell permeates the atmosphere. The dogs come by, sniff, and walk away. Children run gagging from that pile of ‘assets’.

However, we know the truth, eh… Nobody will be able to refine these assets into their elemental parts. How are you going to know if grandma Boomer One bought a small, almost imperceptible, turd in her cookie while grandma Boomer Two owns an untainted treat. Anyone think any politician will have the heart tell Grandma One to give her cookie back – tell her she is gobbling on a turd. Upper lip quivering and feeling her pain or something. We all know everything will be dumped at fire sale prices because the government will not be able to sniff out the turds from the chips. Our government won’t even want to get on their knees and initiate the sniff test.

Regardless, assuming our vaunted government sniffers are up to the task, now what do we do?

1. Mix it all back together to hide the power of the stench and mark it down with a known turd to chip ratio. What happens to the Turd Tainted Treasuries? This is the most likely ‘solution’. Yippie, this asset lump has a turd to chip ratio of 5%. We can make a plan or something. However, Grandpa and the Chinese and the Saudi Sheiks will want a bit more of a return to cover their potential medical bills. But, at least they know they have a 5% chance of catching cholera.

2. Keep them separate. Wait till the good assets grow in value enough to cover the cost of the turds under the tarp. All the while paying the rent on the gym where the two piles are stored (the cost of borrowing required to purchase the original pile of tainted assets). Might be a while. Then hire someone to start shoveling the turds into the toilet bowl. Don’t want this to be a SuperDome thang, eh…

Here, however is my solution!

Since the brilliant government flaks are obviously in charge – and worthy of managing a trillion dollars – they obviously have some handle on what they are buying. That is, they must have some idea of how big the pile under the tarp is in relation to the one Barney Frank has been traipsing in. Have confidence. Now, in my opinion the government should fund the ORIGINAL purchase of the asset mix via two different instruments. Something like a Ginnie Mae for the yummy cookies. And, a brand new ‘Treasury for Turds’ bond for the not so good cookies. If someone buys the ‘Treasury for Turds’ bond he/she is speculating that there will still be some chips in the mess. Probably a good bet, eh. Then get to the refining.

Here, is my offer to those who want part of the action via my personal assets:

I’ll buy the second ‘Treasury for Turds’ bond.

You buy the first.

Hopefully, the bond will have a cute design like a Disney stock certificate. Maybe a collector’s item.

Thank You Senator Obama

Re(1): 'Obama says no place for Palin daughter story', The Politico, Jonathan Martin

Senator Obama, I cannot vote for you because politically I do not agree with the direction you are taking. To be fair, I can barely lean in wahtever direction McCain wobbles into.

However, I have always thought you a gentleman and a decent person. I gave you a longer look than I have given any Democrat for President in my sensible voting lifetime.

Children and non-politicizing family should not be hassled during an election.

My concern - and the major reason I averted my eyes from your candidacy - are the zealots that track you. Democratic Underground and DailyKOS adherents are not folks I want to be around.

Kinda like Bill Ayers, eh - zing!!!

Choices Made…

Re(1): 'The Fourth Turning', William Strauss and Neil Howe

Senator McCain:

An Artist who got kicked in the teeth chose a GenX Reformer with a background of challenging the establishment while sending her child off to a Fourth Turning war. Governor Palin definitely defines the ‘Nomad’ in Strauss & Howe’s ‘The Fourth Turning’. She is an energetic leader who is unafraid to make the hard call needed to get the job done. She obviously is not a dutifull follower of entrenched 'experts'. So, let me mention some others in that Archetype:

• Francis Drake
• Nathaniel Bacon
• George Washington
• Ulysses S. Grant
• David Eisenhower
• David Petraeus

Yup, many of them are wartime leaders. Another example would be Harry Truman, eh… They are the leaders of men that decide the conflicts of their era. They are not necessarily the Prophets of Ideas – but, as you can see by the list, they are not devoid of game changing punch in that realm either.

If Governor Palin follows the Archetype her traits will be as follows:

Positive Reputation	Negative Reputation
Savvy	Unfeeling
Practical	Uncultured
Perceptive	Amoral

Senator Obama:

A Prophet who lives the life of a Nomad selected an Archetypical Artist from the previous saeculum. This is a generation that seems to get lost in the mix. Some behave like Prophets, others Nomads. This archetype comes to flower AFTER the Fourth Turning conflict and erects the foundations that stabilize the next four generations (United Nations, NATO, Warsaw Pact, Civil Rights Movement, etc.). Biden's archetype is this generations GenX children.

I think Biden, however, will simply get lost in this the crisis era. He has made NO mark yet – so why should he in the time remaining. He is too old, his values too conflicted, and his positives are too dreamy to be useful in a time of conflict. His negative traits overwhelm those positives in a Fourth Turning. To be fair I will document those traits as follows (and invite you to come to your own conclusions on his role in this Fourth Turning):

Positive Reputation	Negative Reputation
Caring	Sentimental
Open-Minded	Complicating
Expert	Indecisive

An interesting dynamic, eh. The patterns became clear while watching reruns of CSPAN and listening to replays of talk radio this weekend. Palin fits the era, Biden does not. McCain flows in and out but is tough and decisive, Obama sits dead center as a Prophet but is weak and indecisive and picks someone elses choice for Vice President.

Interesting times we live in, eh.

Time to Select the Company and Platoon Leaders

McCain has selected his XO…

I t should be obvious - and the timing is right. Republicans must select their next batch of Senate and Congressional leader. Take the initiative! Place those selections in the public eye. Make those selections reformers – not Joe Biden or Ted Stevens or Robert Byrd Lites. May I STRONGLY suggest you look at some of the folks on McCain’s short list. No more pork barrel pigs or stodgy time servers.

Prove you are on board.

Do not wait till January.

Do it now, elect reformers, and step into power after the November elections.

That is what WE want.

McCain Selects His XO

Senator McCain picked a challenging, but impressive, XO.

He wanted someone loyal. Not all decisions made in the Oval Office are 100% righteous. Not all are made with 100% certitude. Not all are black or white. All, however, should be made honorably and with concern.

Similarly, he wanted someone who would challenge him if the decision process became a dishonor. If one became flippant.

Anyone out there think Governor Palin will be a toady. This is a two edge sword, but it is obvious that a real leader wanted a real XO.

McCain has picked XOs before.

• Character and Leadership
• Talent and Promise
• Wanted an XO
• Got One.

PS. Whatever one may think of the other potential selections (Romney, Pawlenty, Cantor, etc.) it is apparent now that the Republican bench is quite big, quite promising, and quite effective. The Democrats, not so much…

They Call Her Sarah

And, that is a very good thing...

A very, very good thing.

Think about it.

1. She is a known MAVERICK
3. She is a Conservative
5. She is an Executive
7. She competes
9. She wins.

Human Rights...

Re(1): 'Saddleback Civil Forum on the Presidency', Saddleback Church, Rick Warren

Rick Warren asked pointed questions, permitted answers in depth, and allowed out two candidates for President of the United States to define themselves.

I am not an abortionalutionist or whatever. Most of the time, regretfully, I do not care about the subject. However, the question was succinctly asked:

"At what point does a baby get human rights, in your view?"

Think about it.

It is a tougher question, on deeper review, than one thinks - eh…

We are not talking about legal rights.

We are not talking about political rights.

We are not talking about economic rights.

We ARE talking about HUMAN RIGHTS!!!

The most basic set of rights any human holds. The inalienable ones. Not given by man to man. Instead, they are those given by God, god, or gaia.

To deny HUMAN RIGHTS is to perpetrate a CRIME AGAINST HUMANITY.

Senator Obama, your answer was an abortion.

Signing Ceremonies…

Re(1): 'Cracks in the ground', The Belmont Club, Wretchard T.C.
Re(1): 'May 2008 One Of Top Two Least Violent Months Of The Entire Iraq War', The Strata-Sphere, AJ Strata

The Libs have been prattling about trying to figure out how we are to surrender when we lose. They think a rapid retreat is all that is needed to settle the conflict. That militant Islamists will not continue their struggle when we turn around and go home. No signing ceremonies in a torture house or any ceremonial head chopping in some city square in Mecca are needed.

But, name a finished war that never ended officially?

Now, however, with the long term trends being what they are, we have to ask ourselves where and how does the militant Islamist movement surrender?

This is not a snarky question. We civilized people have no desire to kill or destroy.

Who is the guarantor that militant Islam will cease hostilities toward America, Iraq, Israel, and the West in general?

Has President Bush again led the Lawrence Wright, in an interview with Hugh Hewitt, mentioned that the two centers of Islam are Egypt and Iraq. Allowing the civilized element of Iraq to flourish and dominate may prove to re-center Islam to Iraq – the strong horse. A different, but civilized, people and culture – one not wedded to jihad, expansion, and murder.

Pray, hope…

I would love to go to Iraq as a tourist.

Istanbul was stunning.

Baghdad would be amazing.

Babylon anyone. Nineveh. To see the cradle of civilization…

The Left hath no Fury Like an Appeaser Scorned

Re(1): 'It was never OK to carve up Czechoslovakia', Ed Morrissey, HotAir.com
Re(2): 'Bush, and His Use of Appeasement', Bruce Ramsey, The Seattle Times
Re(3): 'Hypocricy on Hamas', James P. Rubin, WashingtonPost.com

1. First the good. Actually the very good. The more I think about it - good enough to be on my permanent 'My Favorite Posts' blogroll. I still use that thing for research. Anyone else find it valuable?

Ed Morrissey's post 'It was never OK to carve up Czechoslovakia' concisely argues the fact that there was absolutely NO justification for allied nations GIVING AWAY a sovereign state during a negotiation with a tyrant.

None.

Nada.

Never.

Morrissey further emphasizes this obvious point (obvious to anyone but the oblivious MoonBat Left) by recalling history anyone with eyes or finger sensation or ears could attain in a few moments of research. The fact that Hitler’s Germany acted in bad faith on the world’s stage for years prior to England and France ceding half a sovereign state to its clutches. They rearmed in violation of treaty. They increased military manpower in violation of treaty. They attacked and took territory in violation of treaty. They built a vast submarine fleet in violation of treaty. And, they acted the part of barbarian hoards for years prior to WWII.

Basically, that era of Krauts behaved like this era of Islamofascists.

Hence the name, eh.


2. Now the bad. Actually, the very bad. Now that I am thinking about it - the completely ignorant and stupid and vapid.

If I only had a blogroll for idiotic MSM ‘journalism’. But I don’t – and won’t. That task would be a full time job.

First, the wizened opinion of an idiot. Namely, Bruce Ramsey and his argument that Hitler’s Germany had some righteous arguments for demanding and accepting part of a sovereign state – just prior to rolling his tanks over the rest a few months later. You see, Hitler’s demands were reasonable because part of the Czechoslovakia Republic spoke German and because the great powers had to avoid war. Dude (I now speak a language he understands), Switzerland's official language is German. Dude, we speak a Germanic language. Dude, we sent black people to Berlin's Olympics to whomp on Aryan Germanic Ass. We Americans oppressed the German Nazis by sending a 'nigga' to show them up on their own racist home turf. The Krauts had basis for negotiating the cession of at least half the American eastern seaboard for that slight. They were oppressed, very oppressed, mightily oppressed, etc...

And to top it off, Bruce just committed a blogospheric injustice by rewriting his trash. Still not much better. Try again bubba. I’ll find the original version for posterity sake.

Moron.

Fool.

And, a fool is forever.

Second, a Clintonoid named James Rubin misquotes his own videotape and transcribed interview with Senator John McCain to make McCain look like an ObamAppeaser. It’s not every day that an MSM moron can – or will – misquote his own interview. But, here we have it!!!

Rubin quotes McCain word for word, nuance for nuance, inflection for inflection, facial expression for facial expression, etc. on the first thirty seconds of a videotaped interview he had with McCain two years ago when Hamas was dutifully elected by the enlightened citizens of Hamasistan. But, whoops, the dog ate the next thirty seconds. Certainly nobody would catch him with only half his homework done. I mean, if the WashedOutPost editors and fact checkers don’t call him on his inadvertent misplacement of an important quote than some slugs in their pajamas never will!!!

Let her ride!!!

You two ignorant turds.

The Web is Forever.

Brave Mam Clinton

Re(1): 'Shameless liar on Bosnia: I’m only human', Hot Air, AllahPundit
Re(2): 'HILLARY - OBAMA: Sucking all the cash out of the Democrats?', Instapundit, Reynolds
Re(3): 'The presidential race in perspective', KnoxNews, Michael Silence

Only a Lib would brag about being part of President Clinton's crack Foreign Policy Squad...

I think al-Qaeda operatives saw Mrs. Clinton snorkeling around the docks of Aden harbor after the Cole bombing. Bin Laden and his brave Minutemen ran for the hills.

She was on-site immediately following the Khobar Towers bombing. She single handedly captured an al-Qaeda financier. Guns blazing, Brave Mam Clinton gave fair warning, requested the door be opened, and read the Minuteman his rights. That criminal got off on a technicality by some kinda troglodyte man.

And, she defied the ‘wag the dog’ commentary and personally guided a Tomahawk missile to an Iraqi WMD factory – or maybe an aspirin factory – but, it is the thought that counts. Rode that missile like the brave pilot in ‘Doctor Strangelove’. Gods, she was beautiful.

Finally, in yet another example of leadership in a time of crisis Hillary Clinton braved smoke and mirrors saving victims from the 1st World Trade Center bombing. As a result, there were only six fatalities.

Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few.

An Easter Look at Killing...

Re(1): As US Deaths In Iraq Approach 4,000 Over 5 Years, Some Perspective, The Strata-Sphere, AJ Strata
Re(2): 'What is the real death toll in Iraq?', The Guardian, Jonothan Steele and Suzanne Goldenberg

Let us look at some nasty statistics this Easter. Let us see if the SurrenderMedia can find a nugget of crap to chew upon:

A review of recent statistics demonstrates (Using the ICC stats, assuming a 6 month average of 552 wartime fatalities per month which seems to be the current level):

Iraq Civilian Casualties as a result of the war:
24.1/100,000The pre-surge rate was: 74.7/100,000

United States
Murders and Suicides: 16.3/100,000
Murders only: 5.6/100,000

So, Iraq is not the United States. It is not England. It is not Japan. Iraqi’s are not as worried about single payer healthcare or whatever as we are. However, the situation has dramatically improved and that improvement is accelerating.

From 'What is the real death toll in Iraq?’
Maximum Accepted Saddam-Era state sponsored mortality
1 million killings over 35 years, rate: 105.45/100,000

Accepted count of 380,000 Saddam state sponsored killings over those 35 years - not including Iran/Iraq war: 41.1/100,000.

Thus, Saddam killed about 11,300 per year every year. And these were state murders – not illnesses, accidents, old age, etc. And, should we not include Saddam’s unjust wars? And, the ratio seemed to accelerate through the years!!!

Surge era killings by ‘militants’ and coalition troops will result in about 6,600 per year at the current ratio. And, this ratio has a solid chance to decline as al-Qaeda weakens. Thus, the norm in Iraq under Saddam was almost double that of the current ICC stats and the differential will likely widen.

Anyone want to claim that Saddam and his lovely children and sycophants would have worked hard on behalf of the Iraqi people to reduce the state sponsored murder rate?

Or, would that pathetic genocidal murderer simply assume he had a god given mandate to murder citizens since they voted for him at a 95+% rate?

On the Conservative Message

I, too, think the ‘Reagan Coalition’ is no longer the standard under which conservative politics can be marketed…

Why?

Because there is little left to fight for.

Taxes: Bush’s tax code is dead center for me and most folks in America. I am middle class. My 25% bracket just seems fair. I no longer pour over deductions – looking for every edge. I just pay ‘my fair share’. Under Bush my first $15,000+ is untaxed, the next $48,000+ is taxed at 15%, and anything over at 25%. Under Clinton my first $54,000 was taxed at 15%, and the rest at 28%. Why should a married couple making less than $15,000 pay tax. Why should a middle class chap almost pay 1/3 of his income in federal tax? The tax code is fair. We just pay. The corporate tax is much the same. The tax treatment of dividends wiped out ENRON style fraud. What is left – the 28% bracket. Small stuff…

Defense: Bush came into office with the DOD funded at about 2/3rd’s of requirement. Remember, we ran out of Tomahawk missiles when dealing with Afghanistan. Remember the flood of senior SNCOs leaving the military. Remember the officer corps exiting stage wherever. Remember the ammo shortages. Remember a 162 ship Navy. An 8 Division Army. A depleted Air Force. That was the Clinton Legacy. We are now a much more modern and effective military. We just need a bit more numbers – and, both the Army and Marine Corps are growing in a sustainable fashion. Clintons last budget appropriated $344 Billion (inflation adjusted). Bush’s last budget appropriated $450 Billion – excluding supplementals for the war. That is on target. And, it didn’t come with an unmanaged splurge.

Social Values: Tried ‘Faith Based Initiatives’ – public didn’t rally. Appointed quality judges – got no credit. Demonstrated healthy Judeo-Christian values in public – decried as a theocrat, an ignoramus, and/or a liar. How many 40 year old issues will move tens of millions? Abortion – not for me.

Those were the old issues. The new ones are:

Spending Responsibility: Bush had to fight a war. The Libs wanted bribes and the ‘Fiscal Conservatives’ wanted a big piece of the growing pie. I put ‘Fiscal Conservative’ in quotes because they proved not to be. They figured that since the pie (tax revenue) was growing so rapidly they could take bigger bites and still shrink the deficit in a timely manner. Well they misjudged. The folks in America figured that the $250 million dollar bridge in Alaska could have partially funded the supplemental. The folks figured out that income does not always go up in America. Sometimes there is an economic downturn. The credit card does come due. We are actually in a great position for a politician to remind the voter that we can run in the black for decades – and, do so with no pain.

Social Security: Bush fought the good fight – but powerful trust funders in the Senate squelched and mangled the message. On purpose – some. Out of complete ignorance – most. I mean, if you have $10 million earning 4% I think you can live off of $450,000 a year especially when you have a salary of $220,000 a year. So these ignorant louts think that a 30 year old ‘investing’ 12% of his/her income can do the same with the same interest. Safe and sound. The morons cannot do basic math. The results are about $11,000 in annual benefits. Now, we watch as the Rangel $1 Trillion dollar tax hike affects the way corporations and individuals account for their assets. Surprise. Oh, well. I think this is a solid angle with all the 401(k) investors out there.

American Values: Classic WASP values can be proposed and lived by Americans. Who cares about which faith he/she believes in. We really don’t need a ‘Baptist Based Initiatives’ project – but a ‘Faith Based Initiative’ or a ‘Values Based Initiative’. Yup. Good idea. Where would you rather send your money – the Salvation Army or the Federal Department of Education?

So, the message is still there. But we don’t have to surround the walls of Jericho anymore. We already have that city.

4th Generation Musings...

Re(1): 'The Implosion Of The Leftward Fever Swamps, Dems Mob Out Of Control', The Strata-Sphere, AJ Strata

A Disconcerning Thought.

Are Lefty Boomers looking inward?

The time to watch is when the GenXers start acting on the influence of the Boomers.

Those latch-key kids who spent their childhood during an era of dissolving family and social structure tend to see things in a practical manner. They get things done – and in some cases break the eggs used in the omelets.

For example. Is it the Boomers wailing about the GWOT or the GenXers? Yup, the Boomers are awailing and the GenXers are adoing. Look at the difference between Petraeus and Wesley Clark in the way a military campaign is run. Petraeus knows casualties are coming but still fights to win. Clark accepted no pain and gave himself no chance to win. Look at the Boomers like Pelosi and Reid and Malloy (Air America) and Sheehan wailing that only oldsters and children are showing up at their rallies. The GenXers may not like the war – who does – but, they realize that unpleasant things must be completed and a war decisively won. The life of a GenXer revolves around making tough decisions and acting on them toward completion.

But, what happens internally. When Boomers influence pragmatic – and in some cases violent – GenXers. The clown (Leeland Eisenberg) with flares in his jacket at the Clinton campaign headquarters was a Boomer. Timothy Mcveigh was a GenXer. Boomer Leeland wanted to make a Kerryesque senatorial protest point, GenX Mcveigh decided he hated the government apparatus and moved to kill it. We have Boomers with dangerous ideas all over the spectrum. If/when they focus internally – and, I think the left is starting to – we are in for some rough times. Even if they want to fight it out with cultural wars rhetoric they will influence GenXers to fight it out on the streets. I think the Wingnuts can be controlled, but I can’t see anyone controlling the Moonbats.

We do live in interesting times.

Adding and Subtracting...

Re(1): The Strata-Sphere, AJ Strata
Re(2): The Skeptical Optimist, Steve Conover

Well Adding

Not Subtracting

You absolutely have to add AJ Strata to any viable blogroll – he is a rocket scientist or something or whatever after all… And, he is a center right kindof guy. Well worth listening too.

And, for optimistic (and fair) economic analysis one can do no better than Steve at the Skeptical Optimist. He and Jayson (of pre-immigration debate self-immolation) were the still small voices of economic reason piercing the doom and gloom of Sauron’s Eonomy. Steve is an honest broker who keeps tabs on things even when the budget and economy aren’t leaning in the right direction – like now.

Out of the cacophony I am starting to hear that 'still small voice'...

The past six months or so have been in flux. No trends of note could be studied or reviewed or written on with confidence. Now, many long term trends are starting to build.

al-Qaeda is losing it's 'base'.

They put everything on the line in Iraq thinking that democracies are the weak horses. That hasn't worked out well for them. The libs were - and are - weak horses, but their weakness didn't completely infect our culture. Regardless, there still is a transnational conflict with militant Islam. Will we continue to press our hand without being able to focus on a singularity?

The American voter is seeking leadership.

The body politic is deeply split right now - but, there is starting to be movement toward the center. To me, the overarching quality the American voter is looking for is leadership. Is there any other reason for Giuliani leading in the Republican polls? For Romney? For Thompson? Then, again, there are the Democrats. Will they go the way of the dodo bird as a result of their ‘leadership’ in Congress? I would not want to be a Presidential candidate in a Democratic Party that is ineffectively ranting and raving to satisfy its financial and ideological base. Conversely, the Republican Party is recentering.

Iran is being dealt with as a valued member of the Axis of Evil.

And, all out war will not be necessary. Will the next president be able to deal with the chaos of an Iranian collapse? President Bush Sr. dealt with the fall of the Soviet Union. I have confidence in Giuliani, Romney, Thompson – but what about Clinton or Obama. See above.

The Federal tax revenue stream is no longer promising.

Is this because corporations and individuals like me are adjusting to the new reality of a Congressman Rangel defined tax code? Financial decisions have to be made now - before one is actually affected by the various proposals. Remember, the most recent tax increase was retroactive - as was the most recent tax cut. Do I really want to be in dividend producting securities if/when dividends become taxable as income? Do the oil companies want to show profit now that their investors no longer desire dividends?

It is now time to raise ones voice!!!