Sunday, March 11, 2007

Carnac the Magnificent: Deficits as Far as the Ey Can See!!!

Re(1): 'Monthly Treasury Statement - February'

Tomorrow, Paul Krugman will explode in almost sexual release.

He will have to dry clean his shorts because the annual running total of the US Deficit will again exceed $100 Billion. It might be as much as $150 Billion. Only five months into BusHitler's proliferate budgetary wastage. Oh the joy for Paul Krugman et. al. If only we could also incorporate a recession he could kill his column knowing he was right in the end!!!

A horror…

A Tragedy…

That damn monkey of a President took surpluses as far as the eye could see and turned them into Halliburton profits. What he will neglect to tell his honored readers (actually, patients) is that February is normally a miserable month for tax receipts – and usually a boon for government bloat. For example, one can watch the effects of the ‘War for Oil and the Subjugation of Brown People’ Supplementals on expenditures over the past few years.

February revenues are fairly easy to SWAG. My guess is that it will come in at about $126 Billion – which, by the way, is $24 Billion higher than FY1997’s February revenue stream inflation adjusted.

February expenditures are all over the map. If you model your numbers on the mid-1990’s than you expect expenditure numbers for February to be about 4% higher than January. If you use war-time number you expect a growth of 7% - 8%. I am actually going to run for safety and assume a growth rate of February over January of about 4%. That’s right Randy Rhodent listeners – I am going to assume February numbers roughly equivalent to Clinton’s era PAX Americana when we were not killing people who declared war on us.

Oh my god, how can one be so naïve. Here is one good reason. After studying the numbers it has become apparent that our ignorant fool of a President is normalizing the budget process. That is, he is lucking into a process that is more predictable. To summarize:

Februaryto DateChangeAnnual Projection
Expenditures:$231$1,108 +1.5%$2,707,464

Now here is a very odd thought.It is very conceivable that expenditures will be in the $218 Billion range and revenues in the $128 Billion range. That will result in: Revenue:

Februaryto DateChangeAnnual Projection
Expenditures:$218$1,094 -2.0%$2,707,464

Folks, at those numbers we are looking at a surplus in September 2007.

Me still thinks we will run a small deficit. There will be a supplemental for our egregious war on civilization – one that occurs later this year than in years past. But, the deficit will be so minimal as to be rounding error. However, one can hope that Byrd and Stevens can’t get it together to carve up the pork on their serving plate. So far, the split leadership can’t agree on who gets which cuts. Maybe the big eaters will starve for a year, eh…