Monday, January 15, 2007

Adding and Deleting...

To All 5 Readers (or maybe just myself on five different machines, eh):

The Good:
The blog 'Back Talk' is now linked permanently in my blog roll. It has become one of the few I roll through (see below) when I have some time. His analysis using objective data is impressive. I think he has influenced my style without me knowing it. That style differs, but complements, the more subjective observations of Wretchard, MM, Atos, and the Anchoress. Obviously it differs from the on-site efforts of Roggio and Yon. Like Wretchard and Atos and Roggio he has a strategic overview sense of things. Always worth reviewing.

The Bad:
I hope this is not the case but it appears that SecurityWatchTower fell off the map. I don't know if C.S. Scott and the rest are just changing hosts or what. Regardless, their site is now mapped to an open domain. I regret this far more than most will ever know. SecurityWatchtower was one of the first three sites I would visit whenever I started a blog surf. The others being 'The Belmont Club', and Instapundit. That is not bad company. I know the folks at SecurityWatchtower peruse this site every once in a while - please point me to the new domain!!!

The Ugly:
But, rather funny... I am still banned from Brave Sir DeLong's (the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury under President Clinton) slightly errant web-site. While not a brain surgeon, I can look at ratios and trends. Brad, if those ratios and trends do not change than your system is in stasis. The economy, and the federal budgets are at least in stasis. Maybe you are coming to that realization because you now have very few posts on the federal deficit. I value your vaunted opinion as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury under
President Clinton
. Are you waiting for a terrorist hit to wipe out a city to bitch and whine about Bush's Budget Follies again!!! Come on Brad, give me a shot at the sycophants that post on your site - and don't delete the comments when they are objective, factual, and sourced - eh... Apparently Mr. DeLong - the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury under President Clinton - deleted
ALL of my comments on the post in question
. It looks like your brain surgeon sycophants are arguing with a rock. Even Arianna Huffington was more honest with her readers than thee - she relinked the entire thread she was hammered in...

Federal Budget Slashing in Progress…

Re(1): ‘U.S. Senate Committee on Appropriations – Continuing Resolution’

Oh, Dear God…

Death and Dismemberment…

How can we survive the budget cuts of FY2007?

The homeless… The children… Our Education… The military… Health Insurance... Science… Temple Construction… Monument Design… Wars of Imperialism… The Fourth Reich… My Mental State of Being…

Hear the howls of protest and derision?

No, neither do I.

Quietly, the inability of the Oinkers from the Right to agree with the Swine from the Left resulted in budgetary gridlock through at least February!!! Dear God, most of the Federal Government must cinch its belt and survive on last year’s budget.

Oh, the humanity.

But, there is a silver lining in every cloud. If our nation’s governmental apparatus does not collapse into the very dust of its own substance as a result of these severe cutbacks (one year’s inflation – ie. about 2%) we might be looking at a budget surplus for FY2007. Here is how the numbers work out:


The revenue numbers are the actual revenues for FY2006 and projections derived from expected growth - and, no, these are not silly CBO and OMB numbers that project a decrease in tax revenue. It ain't going to happen Lefties so get over it. Personally, I think the growth noted with the grey background is most likely - but things are starting to look even better as the month of January has moved on... Thus, it is not silly to start looking at the +13% - +15% numbers.

Actually, it might be a bit better. I am using projected growth for the Department of Defense and the Department of Health and Human Services to generate the expenditure number. These seem to be the only Departments that are still complaining about their belly ‘dunlapping’ over their belts. Unbelievably, however, the expenditures are almost flat this quarter. But, lets not hope for the best and get slammed in the face. We can be certain that big chunks of both political American Parties can agree on one thing - and one thing only. Even a blind sow can find an acorn in the trough, eh...

I don’t know how we are going to survive.

I will have to feed, water, clothe, house, and transport myself.

Oh, the humanity!!!

A Letter to the Press Corps

Re(1): 'Et Tu, Press Corps?', Extreme Mortman

A post at Extreme Mortman provided access to a petulant letter submitted by the print media regarding the exemption of still photographer access to the President during the January 10, 2007 Presidential Speech. My God, the still photographers were unable to snap three thousand photos and pick a chimpy image of our President during a wartime speech on wartime strategy. Here is a response to Tom - who seems to be a decent and professional still photographer for the media:


Tell me again, why as a citizen of the United States of America - during wartime (and I know most of your profession does not think we are at war) - I am forced to place into history another photo selected by a childish press corps that tries to outdo each other in the picking of smirks and pursed lips of a leader at war.

This was a serious speech at a serious time.

While the still photographers might be serious people - but, that seems to be in question as well - your editors are not serious people.

Would the WWII press corps select an especially weak and powerless image of President Roosevelt after Rommel crushed the United States at the Kasserine Pass? The press corps at that time was mature enough not too. Please claim they did not have those photos. How about those photos of Nimitz, Stimson, or Roosevelt after Pearl Harbor. Where are the peoples’ photos during the months of stalemate following D-Day – or maybe even some doubting and worried images in the NYT during D-Day? Not on the cover of the NYT or the Left Angeles Times.

Regretfully, your profession has lost the confidence of the American people.

That, by the way, is a very bad thing.

I do not like or enjoy it.

But, it is true.

Deal with it… I was hoping the embed process would initiate younger journalist into the fog of war and into the righteousness of this conflict. I was hoping the young embeds, as they migrated back into the stateside newsrooms, would add balance, common sense, and an understanding that we are doing the right thing. That they could battle the old War Horse Vietnam Cadre Press Corps that denigrates anything they touch. Regretfully, the American people lost that battle. But, as you can see, the American people are not losing the war. We are ignoring you. We are seeking information from other sources. We no longer care about your privileges and pompous demands. It is not you that is being denigrated; it
is the other 90% of your profession that is being trashed. Your profession is seen as no better than biased bloggers – but at least the bloggers note their biases.

You still have time to turn this around, can you see what you have to do.


Saturday, January 13, 2007

Lib Martial Music: Over Here!!!, Over There, Over Where???

Re(1): Congressman John Murtha's Redeployment 'Plan'

Ok Libs, I Give – Tell Me Where to Redeploy

I have heard Democratic CongressCritters holler about a ‘Redeployment Plan’ for our fighting forces in Iraq. This implies a few things:

  1. That they know where to redeploy the troops
  2. That the troops can redeploy into Iraq if necessary
Given these two axioms, please use the comments to provide the country in which we can redeploy our 150,000 American troops – and still be scary enough to deter Islamofascist aggression.

Here are some factoids to take into consideration:

1. The ‘horizon line’ is 25 miles. Thus, to ‘deploy just over the horizon’ implies redeploying our troops a half hour outside of Baghdad. Here is a map of the Baghdad region for your perusal:

2. Maybe you are talking about the borders of Iraq. Redeploying ‘over the horizon’ of Iraq’s borders means a large military footprint in Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Syria. You could, of course, attempt to force Kuwait to accept a huge military infrastructure on their tiny territory – but that might not be too sensible if there is a threat of WMD attack (and Iran has, and has used, WMD). Jordan is land-locked and moving units through Israel to Jordan will not be popular with the new Caliphate or Terror State. Here is a map of the region you can use as a convenient tool to identify the sovereign state that would, and could, gladly accept our 150,000 troops:

3. Maybe, the horizon line extends to any part of the world reachable by the fastest terrestrial vehicle known to man. I think we have clocked jet cars at about 300 miles/hour on the salt flats. I think, however, that it will take some time to invent and build troop transport capable of 300 miles/hour. And, to do it in an environmentally safe manner might be impossible!

4. Maybe that horizon line is a Blackbird wing away. However, for this brilliant solution to succeed we have to overcome even more problems than noted in point 3.

Thus, I think those who take the challenge seriously must be restricted to the environs of Baghdad, the Anbar Province, or the nation states bordering Iraq. As a secondary challenge, please provide a military and tactical reason to surrender a hill taken – just to attack it again in the near future.

Where are we redeploying to? Your turn:

Friday, January 12, 2007

Culture of Corruption - Big Tuna Lobby buys off Speaker!!!

Re(1): 'GOP hits Pelosi's 'hypocrisy' on wage bill', Washington Times, Charles Hurt
Re(2): 'Clock ticking on Dems' 100-hour agenda', Associated Press, Kasie Hunt

It is true

At some indeterminate timeslice in

Speaker Pelosi’s Magnificent First 100 Hours (or so)
we have been made aware of the influence of the

Big Tuna lobby.

Thursday, January 11, 2007

Watching the Deficit???

Re(1): Monthly Treasury Statement 2006/12 (FY2007)
Re(2): 'Dubya's New Plan to Balance the U.S. Budget', The Daily Reckoning, Ian Mathias

Howdy Folks - all five readers. The above link doesn't exist yet. It will magically appear tomorrow. Will it tell a story tomorrow that is better or worse than what follows...

Prediction Time...
But, with lots of caveats...

It is rather dumb to predict Federal spending with two months of data. So these numbers shouldn't be used when debating some Lib. Next months numbers will provide enough data to whack-a-mole a Lib or two and win some bets.

However, here is one recent bet I made and won: President Bush promised to cut the deficit in half by FY2009 (his last budget). He made that promise using the CBO FY2004 estimate of a $512 Billion dollar deficit. The media scoffed, the Dems wailed... 1/2 of $512 Billion is $256 Billion. Last years deficit was $247 Billion. He wins, I win. At least I got a decent lunch out of it. What did Bush get for being right and being early. Nada.

Now for this year (FY2007).

Right now we are running a $124 Billion deficit - a 4.31% reduction from last year. Revenues are up 8.75% while spending is up a mere 4.74%.

The interesting factoid is that the Gubmint is running without a budget and cannot exceed last years spending by more than inflation. What does that mean in the greater scheme of things.

  1. We might hold spending to a 4% increase
  2. Even that spending might be reduced because of gridlock
  3. And, we will not be funding Katrina (already paid for last year)
  4. And who knows about the annual $100 Billion military supplemental

Thus, we are looking at FY2007 1st Qtr (2006/12) numbers as follows:

  • Receipts: $588,533 Million
  • Outlays: $669,004 Million
  • Deficit: $ 80,471 Million

With those numbers we are looking at annual FY2007 numbers as follows:

  • Receipts: $2,671,409 Million
  • Outlays: $2,734,524 Million
  • Deficit: $ 63,115 Million

Our GDP will be about $13,000,000 Million
The deficit will consume 0.49% of GDP
The deficit will be 2.3% of spending

And, the budget will be in surplus in FY2008 - just in time for the Presidential Elections!!!

Rosy... Me thinks not. The worse case scenario (not including acts of God and the like) would result in an FY2007 deficit of $145 Billion. Basically, the growing economy and the minimal spending restraint shown by the Pigs in the Trough lop off about $100 Billion a year in the defict. Thus, by FY2009 we are looking at a surplus of between $50 Billion and $130 Billion...

Quite a Legacy, eh...

Thursday, January 04, 2007

minnieMeCVN 'The William Jefferson Clinton'

Re(1): 'Loose Lips Name Ships', In From the Cold, Spook86

Spook86 discusses the naming of major command ships in the US Navy. He rightfully decries the politicized process behind naming capital ships. He also expresses a concern about the naming selection that awaits for the sister ships of the Ford CVNs.

He is, alas, too late. A new, and vastly improved capital ship class has already been designed and will wear the moniker of William Jefferson Clinton. She has, in fact, already been spotted at sea trials (August 2005, New Orleans). What follows is a brief synopsis for both of my readers:

Military History Buffs!!!

The U.S.S. William Jefferson Clinton did indeed sail prior to the U.S.S. Hillary Rodham Clinton. Crewed ably by Sean Penn, she sailed dramatically (and peacefully!!!) into the murky waters of New Orleans. However, the rapacious warmongers of Congress increased the military budget so she was redesigned as a three-man ship with provisions for four. This came in handy since an able captain, a legacy photographer, and a noted biographer must man all warships of the Clinton class.

This photo demonstrates the viability of this concept. While there was no space for transporting rescued Americans, America can indeed show concern and immediacy with this warship. Also, this fine vessel stored enough food and water for four stranded citizens for one day. With a flotilla of 7,500 such ships sailing daily we could have dealt with the situation in New Orleans much better and much faster. This proves that posing and posturing are forms of leadership that work. Planning, logistics, and coordinated action are unnecessary in the 21st Century as is proved by Sean Penn and the U.S.S. William Jefferson Clinton.

Note: Minor flaws in preparing the warship for active duty precluded even the appearance of saving children or the feeding of the stranded. However, Captain Penn has described his sortie as a success and President Bush's efforts as inadequate, too slow, and impeachably cheap. In addition, the Superdome was evacuated Friday, September 2 2005. The Convention Center was evacuated Saturday, September 3 2005. Regrettably, the U.S.S. William Jefferson Clinton sailed forth on Sunday, September 4, 2005. Our hope is that future sorties will save thousands!!!

Recruiting poster for the 'U.S.S. William Jefferson Clinton':

'An Army of One'. For all active duty (of any force - we are a bit desperate), we are seeking volunteers to man the U.S.S. William Jefferson Clinton. There are no minimum requirements. There is no minimum rank. There are no physical or mental challenges placed in your way - serving on this peaceship will lead to far greater self-esteem than serving anywhere else in this military. Actually, we don't care if you are actually in the military - as long as we can fit you to some type of uniform or another. By the way, the chain of command of all ships of the Clinton class ultimately lead to either William Jefferson Clinton or Hillary Rodham Clinton. This ensures civilian authority over part of the military and their use of deadly force.

The 'U.S.S. William Jefferson Clinton' is the first of the Clinton class of warship. It embodies all the necessities of being cheap (I mean inexpensive), inexpensive in manpower requirements, inexpensive in negative publicity if sunk, inexpensive in lethality since our goals are humanitarian, and inexpensive in scariness... The second ship, the 'U.S.S. Hillary Rodham Clinton' is currently under construction. Construction of the Rodham Clinton may actually be completed and sea trials finished before the problems with the Jefferson Clinton are worked out. Regardless, the Rodham Clinton will enhance the current Jefferson Clinton class by streamlining the medical insurance of the crew. The third ship, the 'U.S.S. Cohen', is being designed carefully by Mr. Cohen himself. There will be a TV on board to ensure that missions can always be recalled by a careful review of CNN broadcasts. This ship is over budget and way behind schedule. Mr. Cohen is staying up all night every night - right now he is concerned about the paint scheme. In the wings is the 'U.S.S. Albright' which will be the most forward of the peaceships Clinton. She will be the iron fist behind the felt glove. I sure hope the meanies in the world watch out when she sails free. Regretfully, construction of the 'U.S.S Sandy Berger' is now delayed. The schematics and drafting plans seem to have been misplaced.

Wednesday, January 03, 2007

Back to the --- Past...

1968 all over again...

But, in a time of war???

Oh, that's right, there is no war...

LBJ, how many children did you kill today!!!

"De-escalate, investigate, troops home now!!!

To my Lefty friends, at least this memorable chant isn't in 'Black and White'! My challenge still stands, however. Please use the comments section to provide links to ANY memorable speech by any liberal President that is in color. And, when I say memorable I actually mean memorable in a good way. Therefore President Carter's brilliant malaise speech really doesn't count.


Truely Pathetic.

Clear Choices - None Easy...

Re(1): 'Parthian Shot', The Belmont Club, Wretchard T.C.
Re(2): 'Total War', USS Clueless, Steven den Beste
Re(3): 'The Peace Party vs. The Power Party', The Weekly Standard, Matthew Continetti
Re(4): 'The Three Conjectures', The Belmont Club, Wretchard T.C.

A still small voice seems to be thundering...

We have decided, as a civilization, to ignore the region, the people, and the culture of the Middle East for more than three decades. In fact, far more than three decades. But, three decades in which we have been the target of aggression by those peoples and that culture.

We must engage that culture culturally. While they do not have the means to destroy our civilization, globalization has provided them the means of disrupting us to the point we may eat our own. One way we destroy our own values and our own culture is to stand by in some form of Sitzkrieg and wait till we can defend ourselves only through the ‘Second Conjecture’ solution of genocide. Any information age total war will be a war of genocide. Imagine a weak President after 9/11. Imagine that Putin was not constrained (he must have been) after Beslan. While some may want a more forceful posture there is a balance – and once that tipping point is met and exceeded (since none know where it is to be found) than future generations will judge our actions.

The Left (the Peace Party) refuses the power of the kinetic influence. The Right (‘The Power Party’) often refuses the influence of soft power. Judgments have to be made and made soon. We are in for a long conflict that requires leadership and vision, or we are in for a short conflict that requires acceptance of genocide. Are we really at the point of promoting and accepting the second option? Is another thirty years of Sitzkrieg going to really change our options? In the end we really do have to dance to the same tune, eh…

That is history.

I pray history finds us informed, just, and victorious.