Sunday, December 16, 2007
A Disconcerning Thought.
Are Lefty Boomers looking inward?
The time to watch is when the GenXers start acting on the influence of the Boomers.
Those latch-key kids who spent their childhood during an era of dissolving family and social structure tend to see things in a practical manner. They get things done – and in some cases break the eggs used in the omelets.
For example. Is it the Boomers wailing about the GWOT or the GenXers? Yup, the Boomers are awailing and the GenXers are adoing. Look at the difference between Petraeus and Wesley Clark in the way a military campaign is run. Petraeus knows casualties are coming but still fights to win. Clark accepted no pain and gave himself no chance to win. Look at the Boomers like Pelosi and Reid and Malloy (Air America) and Sheehan wailing that only oldsters and children are showing up at their rallies. The GenXers may not like the war – who does – but, they realize that unpleasant things must be completed and a war decisively won. The life of a GenXer revolves around making tough decisions and acting on them toward completion.
But, what happens internally. When Boomers influence pragmatic – and in some cases violent – GenXers. The clown (Leeland Eisenberg) with flares in his jacket at the Clinton campaign headquarters was a Boomer. Timothy Mcveigh was a GenXer. Boomer Leeland wanted to make a Kerryesque senatorial protest point, GenX Mcveigh decided he hated the government apparatus and moved to kill it. We have Boomers with dangerous ideas all over the spectrum. If/when they focus internally – and, I think the left is starting to – we are in for some rough times. Even if they want to fight it out with cultural wars rhetoric they will influence GenXers to fight it out on the streets. I think the Wingnuts can be controlled, but I can’t see anyone controlling the Moonbats.
We do live in interesting times.
Saturday, November 24, 2007
Re(2): The Skeptical Optimist, Steve Conover
Not SubtractingYou absolutely have to add AJ Strata to any viable blogroll – he is a rocket scientist or something or whatever after all… And, he is a center right kindof guy. Well worth listening too.
And, for optimistic (and fair) economic analysis one can do no better than Steve at the Skeptical Optimist. He and Jayson (of pre-immigration debate self-immolation) were the still small voices of economic reason piercing the doom and gloom of Sauron’s Eonomy. Steve is an honest broker who keeps tabs on things even when the budget and economy aren’t leaning in the right direction – like now.
Out of the cacophony I am starting to hear that 'still small voice'...
The past six months or so have been in flux. No trends of note could be studied or reviewed or written on with confidence. Now, many long term trends are starting to build.
al-Qaeda is losing it's 'base'.
They put everything on the line in Iraq thinking that democracies are the weak horses. That hasn't worked out well for them. The libs were - and are - weak horses, but their weakness didn't completely infect our culture. Regardless, there still is a transnational conflict with militant Islam. Will we continue to press our hand without being able to focus on a singularity?The American voter is seeking leadership.
The body politic is deeply split right now - but, there is starting to be movement toward the center. To me, the overarching quality the American voter is looking for is leadership. Is there any other reason for Giuliani leading in the Republican polls? For Romney? For Thompson? Then, again, there are the Democrats. Will they go the way of the dodo bird as a result of their ‘leadership’ in Congress? I would not want to be a Presidential candidate in a Democratic Party that is ineffectively ranting and raving to satisfy its financial and ideological base. Conversely, the Republican Party is recentering.Iran is being dealt with as a valued member of the Axis of Evil.
And, all out war will not be necessary. Will the next president be able to deal with the chaos of an Iranian collapse? President Bush Sr. dealt with the fall of the Soviet Union. I have confidence in Giuliani, Romney, Thompson – but what about Clinton or Obama. See above.The Federal tax revenue stream is no longer promising.
Is this because corporations and individuals like me are adjusting to the new reality of a Congressman Rangel defined tax code? Financial decisions have to be made now - before one is actually affected by the various proposals. Remember, the most recent tax increase was retroactive - as was the most recent tax cut. Do I really want to be in dividend producting securities if/when dividends become taxable as income? Do the oil companies want to show profit now that their investors no longer desire dividends?It is now time to raise ones voice!!!
Re(2): 'The Race is On', Me
Re(3): 'Keep Your Eyes on the Prize', Me
Re(4): 'Red/Blue in the Middle East', Me
So, Iran is in a commanding position this Thanksgiving…
Me thinks not.
As stated here, here, and especially here there seems to be a strategic effort to deal with the second leg of the Axis of Evil.
Wretchard, the esteemed purveyor of The Belmont Club, naturally describes this better than others in ‘The Real Surge’…
Well written, concise, and now part of my research post list...
Monday, November 12, 2007
Or forward towards 2001/09/12, the first day of the end of the Islamofascist movement...
The Hard Left has been smoking cancer sticks for so long I can't remember a moment when one wasn't poking from their ever scowling grill.
The Center Left moved away from them.
Recently, however, the media provided the means for the Hard Left contagion to stream into the center.
If we have the anti-bodies remaining to fight this internal struggle than the Left in America will be destroyed.
Is this a good thing?
And, that comes from a conservative neocon.
But, it is a thing.
It is a fact.
Both Parties will have to rebuild. One from the ground up – cursing the idealists and power brokers who cannot see the good in our society, who cannot see the good in our efforts, who run the show completely and without remorse, The other from the center out – picking off those who have no backbone, no morals, no guiding stricture.
Back to the culture wars, eh…
Sunday, October 14, 2007
Americans are blithely trooping about listening to music on their radios. The latest tunes. Songs of love, dogs, cats, killing cops, or whatever turns each individual on… In the background we hear of auto crashes and traffic snarls…
Every week or so we experience the aggravating sound of the ‘Emergency Alert System’ test:
Music and joy or cop killing or whatever fills the air again.
"This is a test of the Emergency Alert System. This is only a test."
"This is a coordinated monthly test of the broadcast stations in your area. Equipment that can quickly warn you during emergencies is being tested. If this had been an actual emergency such as (insert types of messages that may occur in the geographic area) , official messages would have followed the alert tone. This concludes this test of the Emergency Alert System."
‘This concludes this test of the Emergency Alert System.”.
Here is the skinny…
We accept that test. Most respect that test. We know we need that test.
Six years into the GWOT we accept the war, most respect the warfighter, and we know we have to be engaged in the region. We don’t like it. But we accept it. We are very happy that most of the sounds are ‘tests’ of the system and not Katrinas with thousands or hundreds of thousands of casualties. We feel prepared.
When a Katrina is forming or blows in most will heed the warning and act. Some will ignore the Emergency Alert System and switch to their iPod or whatever. But, in full, there will be major action. There have already been major adjustments.
Maybe someone with an iPod stuck in his/her ear-hole will be elected. That would be a shame. Both for us and our enemy. But, we are large and still in charge. And we have mobilized our economy (which is perking along just fine), our infrastructure (which is very robust and getting more so), our military (which is in the region and gaining experience), and pushing to ‘close the gap’ (which will help any leader focus on a smaller and smaller region for full retaliation). It would be a shame to lose thousands more and to be forced into sowing a land with salt – but, that might be the end result.
Saturday, September 08, 2007
Re(2): 'The July 2007 Monthly Treasury Statement', Department of the Treasury
Re(3): 'Monthly Treasury Statement', Department of the Treasury
Re(4): Bureau of Labor Inflation Calculator
Some poor Lefty (Alphie) posted the usual blather at Will Wilkinso’s ‘The Fly Bottle’ blog stating:
And the $400+ billion the U.S. government paid in interest last year(mostly to foreigners) on the money it borrowed in the past instead of rasing through taxes?(Spelling errors his)
Even Joe Sixpack realizes that if he runs off to Vegas and blows his mortgage money on a good time…there will be a cost.
When he sobers up, that is.
The poor sod.
He is off by $29 Billion on the interest payment – in his favor!!!
Off by a massive $161 Billion on his DOD spending. That is a 30% error.So, I got to thinking…
Just how big is Bush’s War Machine…
Some facts first:
The GDP in 2000 was 9.8 Trillion
The GDP estimate for 2007 is $13.5 Trillion.
Thus, GDP in 2007 in 2000 dollars is 11.2 Trillion
DOD spending in FY2000 was $281 Billion
The DOD FY2007 spending estimate is $539 Billion
Thus, DOD FY2007 spending in 2000 dollars is $445 Billion
Very few associated with the military found the DOD spending acceptable. Anyone remember running out of Tomahawk missiles in October 2001? Anyone remember any new military technology that was developed in the Clinton era? Anything we did not have in 1992? Anything at all? Maybe some up-armored HMMVEs?
So my opinion is that we had to spend a bit more in the DOD to compensate for Clinton Era cutbacks. We all know the military ‘survived the Clinton Era!!!’. But, just barely
Now the Math (in 2000 dollars):
Bush has grown the DOD budget by:$445 Billion - $281 Billion = $164 Billion.
In that time, Health and Human Services grew by:$561 Billion - $390 Billion = $171 Billion
With Tax Revenue Growth of:
$2,127 Billion - $2,025 Billion = $102 Billion
And, a FY2007 deficit of probably $120 Billion ($99 Billion in 2000 dollars). With a balanced budget – or even a surplus – in FY2008!!!
Thus, under Bush,
The DOD expenditures are 3.7% of GDP
The Health and Human Services expenditures are 5.0% of GDP
The DOD expenditures are 20.9% of Tax Revenue.
The Health and Human Services expenditures are 26.4% of Tax Revenue
Thus, under Clinton,
The DOD expenditures are 2.9% of GDP
The Health and Human Services expenditures are 4.0% of GDP
The DOD expenditures are 13.9% of Tax Revenue.
The Health and Human Services expenditures are 19.3% of Tax Revenue.
That War Machine is costing 0.8% of GDP and 7% of Tax Revenue. There are no serious experts who think we should spend less than 4% of GDP on our military. Only folks like Alphie I guess.
So, here is my deal with the Lefty’s:
Let’s cut DOD expenditures by $25 Billion and HSS expenditures by $35 Billion. That is, shave 5% off of each budget!!! Then, with the tax revenue growth President Bush has initiated we shall see a large surplus next year.
Let’s shake on that!!!
The Grand Bargain!!!
Sunday, September 02, 2007
No, not a Larry Craig joke.
Instead, yet another miserable article by the NYT…
The basic jist of Klienfield's article is: 9/11 – Get over it!!!
To answer Klienfield’s questions as well as that of the good doctor’s:
Few Americans give much thought anymore on Dec. 7 that Pearl Harbor was attacked in 1941 (the date to live in infamy). Similar subdued attention is paid to other scarring tragedies: the Kennedy assassination (Nov. 22, 1963), Kent State (May 4, 1970), the Oklahoma City bombing (April 19, 1995).
Generations, of course, turn over. Few are alive anymore who can recall June 15, 1904, when 1,021 people died in the burning of the steamer General Slocum, the deadliest New York City disaster until Sept. 11, 2001. Also, the weight of new wrenching events crowds the national memory. Already since Sept. 11, there have been Katrina and Virginia Tech. And people have their own more circumscribed agonies.
What might happen on Sept. 11 a hundred years from now? “It’s conceivable that it could be virtually forgotten,” said Dr. Bodnar, the history professor. “Does anyone go out on the streets of New York and commemorate the firing on Fort Sumter?”
Klienfield, we Americans remember World War II. Have you visited the monument? Do you go shopping on Veterans Day? Memorial Day? You may not remember the start of World War II – but that only proves you are an ignorant lout. Personally, if you do not remember ‘the day that lives in infamy’ I can’t help you. Why are you qualified the write about epoch changing events?
Klienfield, I do not commemorate the Kennedy assassination, Kent State shooting, the Katrina hurricane, or the Oklahoma City bombing because those events did not upend America the way the Revolution, the Civil War, World War II, and 9/11 have. The Kennedy assassination is remembered – but what has it changed. The other events were tragic – but why are they on your list.
A natural disaster?
A steamship fire?
A mass killing?
Why not put Contra Gate on that list? Watergate? Did some Christianist Wing-Nut editor at the NYT scandalously excise those references from your screed? How about the 1977 San Diego State beating of Florida State? Are all tragedies equal. Can you define the Revolution, the Civil War, and World War II as tragedies and still tell the world that you are a man of letters? Spend a second and think of 9/11. Was it a 'tragedy'?
I live over three thousand miles away.
I will allow my memory of 9/11 to fade when I find myself living in an era of PAX Americana. I will remember ‘Victory over Barbarism Day’. If you ignorant troglodytes will allow a victory than that will be the day I celebrate. Is that a fair bargain? Let us shake on that.
To make my point a bit clearer. To cut though the fog of BDS infliction. If you cannot separate a steamship fire from the initiation of a hot war than I am sorry.
You and yours are turds still floating aimlessly in the bowl.
Looks like I have to flush that damn toilet again.
Saturday, August 25, 2007
Re(1): "It Didn't Happen", The OpinionJournal, James Taranto
Re(2): “History Proves Vietnam Victors Wrong”, Wall Street Journal, Senator James Webb
Re(3): “The Approach Of The Arab Pol Pot”, HughHewitt.com, Hugh Hewitt
Re(4): “Vietnam Analogies”, HughHewitt.com, Dean Barnett
Because of articles like these - and the long memories of an educated citizenry - I think it will be impossible to bail from a conflict without addressing the consequences.
It was possible in 1975:
- To run and hide.
- To cut and run and redeploy.
- To have a compliant media ignore the facts.
There is simply too much information, too much history, and too many sources to ignore the circumstances of a run and hide strategy.
I am including Taranto's article on the 'My Favorite Posts' link list.
I would have included Webb's as well - but, me thinks politics may add, shall we say, nuance to his writings in the near future. I want to keep the 'My Flameouts' link list as clean as possible. What Webb writes in 2000 is now open to interpretation by Webb in 2007 and beyond!!!
Process and initiative are both basic cogs in an ever improving and competitive enterprise. There is a balance. You need both.
The Clinton Legacy was one that neither respected the military nor the intelligence services. Hence, they would not accept failure and could not accept results unless ‘process was followed’ and ‘accountability could be ascertained’. Both the military and the intelligence services were not critically important assets since they were not immediately aligned to Liberal goals. Basically, these entities never adapted to the peace dividend!!!
Therefore, the view was that they must change incrementally. Thus, process improvement techniques where implemented (TQL) to build a ‘stronger’ military and ‘revamped’ intelligence service. However, under Clinton ‘stronger’ was ‘more streamlined’ and cheaper - and ‘revamped’ was a re-tasking to economic and social research. We were, of course, talking about ‘Peace in Our Time!!!’.
Conversely, after 9/11 we went straight to change and initiative without much regard to process. To me, this was necessary. The processes were not set up to redevelop and restructure the entity. They were there to make it manageable and cheaper in peacetime. However, we are now dealing with the excesses and failures of initiative without measurement. America is now restructuring its processes to match its reality. Hence, the hue and cry about surveillance and counter insurgency surges. The Left is still unconvinced that the military and intelligence services have adapted to the modern world, and the Right cannot prove that they have. We are now readdressing process. It is ugly, but it is necessary.
Here is a very strong positive of the Clinton starvation by process and the ‘W’ process be damned just give me progress initiatives. Now, the military has a much lighter support footprint and understands process improvement techniques. The best example is Rumsfeld’s water spiquet references. Even during wartime he wanted to measure effectiveness and make incremental changes based on those facts. Another example is the recent review of NSA surveillance techniques – and, the reasonable adjustment to the wild-wild west changes that occurred in October of 2001. Why is that important? It is important because we can now change tactics and equipment and training and recruiting and retention – and still measure how the changes affect the whole.
We have changed, We are changing, And, we are improving.
I would hate to be the other guy!!!
Sunday, July 15, 2007
2. The tide has turned against al-Qaeda.
3. al-Qaeda's strategic actions seem to take place in Iran and Pakistan.
I have a feeling inside, can't explain...
I have a feeling inside, I can't explain...
But, I can state a few things:
1. We don't want to get beat by Islamists ANYWHERE
2. This conflict is not over when al-Qaeda is wiped out; it is a wider conflict.
3. Iran and Islamist elements of Pakistan will not enjoy Sunni Islamists inside their borders
and, lest we forget some earlier commentary...
We will not definitively know when we have won the conflict...
Wednesday, July 04, 2007
Listening to Harry Joffrey and Dennis Prager this July 4th - while debating yet another Conflicted Leftist on ‘Back Talk’ - moved one synapse in my vague and beer addled mind to connect with another…
What do I love and respect about my country – the good old United States of America!!!
I love my nation because we:
- accept imperfection,
- know we are imperfect,
- can act on our imperfections,
- and have the freedom to strive for perfection.
Where else in this fine and diverse abode on which we all live is this true. We accept our imperfections, but have confidence we can challenge and overcome them. Slavery is a perfect example. For the greater good, slavery was actually written into existence - written into the Constitution. But, that Constitution can be, must be, and will be changed. Over 600,000 fellow Americans died to change that central mores – but, we did the right thing.
Additionally, and here I might be on thin beer bleary thin ice, where else on this marble of ours does a nation celebrate its birth as being the date of legal separation. Not a battle won or a war started. But, instead, when a document that defines a belief and presents a grievance is presented to the general populace. Who really remembers the first or last battle in the Revolution?
We remember a perfection written by the naturally imperfect.
The most perfect understanding of humanity yet.
May we always move forward.
God Bless America
Monday, July 02, 2007
MessNBC's Terrorism Expert, Larry Johnson...
The best 'byline description' of CIA Master Spy Larry Johnson yet!!!
Once again, Johnson’s wannabe-hipster pessimism — which is temperamentally tied to the grand conspiracy scenarios he and his acolytes like Olbermann cling to like Lindsay Graham might a victory sombrero — has led him to look like an utter “denialist” (hi, Commissar!), one who, if his track record is any indication, wouldn’t be able to spot imminent Islamic terrorism were it wearing a “Hi, I’m a Jihadist” name tag and galloping towards him on a camel wrapped in explosives and sporting a riding blanket made entirely from roofing nails and the severed heads of western journalists.
A target of scorn and humor...
That has to hurt...
Sunday, June 24, 2007
Re(2): '2000 Tax Rate Schedules', IRS
Re(3): '2006 Tax Rate Schedules', IRS
Re(4): '2006 Alternative Minimum Tax Schedule', IRS
I am not rich. I am in the 25% tax bracket. Solidly middle class!!!
I am using 2006 inflation adjusted numbers and am increasing the 2000 tax brackets by the inflation adjustment. Adjusted the brackets look like the following:
2000 Federal Tax Schedule for Married Filing Jointly (Inflation adjusted to 2006) :
|If taxable income is over-||But not over-||The tax is-|
|$51,336||$124,039||$7,700 + 28% of the amout over $51,336|
|$124,039||$189,014.63||$20,356 + 31% of the amount over $124,039|
2006 Federal Tax Schedule for Married Filing Jointly:
|If taxable income is over-||But not over-||The tax is-|
|$15,100||$61,300||$1,510 + 25% of the amount over $15,100|
|$61,300||$123,700||$8,440 + 25% of the amount over $61,300|
|$123,700||$188,450||$24,040 + 28% of the amount over $123,700|
(Note: Higher brackets will end up in the AMT. A flat tax!!! Income is flat taxed at 26% or 28% with very restricted deductions - and, no, that hasn't been changed. Thus, higher income earners really don't get a 'tax break' and can't play with their taxes - but, inflation will soon bring the AMT flat tax to you!!!).
If the taxes revert to the pre-2003 code I will be in the 28% tax bracket. That difference does not sound like much, but the fact is that income from $0 - $51,336 is taxed at a higher effective tax rate of 15% rather than 13% (as a side note: why should we all want the bottom two brackets to pay more income tax?).
So, under pre-2003 tax code I would pay the Feds $14,045 for exactly the same service I currently pay the Feds $11,615. Thus, from a married chap firmly in the middle class, the BusHitler tax code nets little old me $2,430 in take home pay - or a little more than $200 bucks a month. Half a car payment, or perhaps paying down the old credit cards a bit faster, maybe investing more into my retirement fund, eh… Lots of options and the government is not there to tell me how to best deal with it. And, to top everything off, the Federal annual budget will be in surplus next year – while looking at $300 - $500 billion dollar annual surpluses for as long as the eye can see if the economy doesn’t tank
Now, more pertinent to the current post by Steve. Will I simply pay the $200 each month and be happy about it?
I will act aggressively, as I did in 2000, to reduce my tax burden. I will ‘hide’ more income from the tax man!!! I will be more aggressive in my deductions. I will stop funding a Roth IRA and increase my 401(k) contributions. And, RIGHT NOW, I will take my capital gains from investment growth and move to cash. (and, yes, Marmico that is what I am doing at the present. I want to beat the big time investors to the safety of cash and low tax rates before they act).
So, the increase in personal income tax rates will net the government $0 or maybe even a negative return as I start playing the tax game again. And, what happens to the economy as I move my resources from active assets to tax shelters?
Why should the Feds make me play the game?
Since I feel the taxes are fair I no longer play. I just pay!!!
Monday, May 28, 2007
Re(2): 'Americans will die for liberty', The Telegraph, Andrew Gimson
I fear that many confuse the sound of Spartan piping at Thermopylae with the signed or whispered or shouted orders at Diyala and Auschwitz and Andersonville. On this Memorial Day, I think we should take a moment to redefine the difference.
On this day I voice my deep appreciation for the soldiers who have fought - and who are now fighting - men who don the livery of evil. I honor those who have paid the ultimate cost for the ultimate endeavor.
May good always triumph!!!
Saturday, May 26, 2007
Why? Three reasons:
- The Defense Department is currently spending as if the supplemental was passed
- And, even the DOD cannot spend that kind of money that quickly
- And, the stock market is boiling…
Thus, there will be no marked increase in monthly spending. The DOD will simply backfill other budget line items. And, folks are still making tons of taxable money in the stock market - even if the market crashes!!!.
I expect an FY2007 deficit (for you Lib ignits October 2006 to September 2007) to be about $70 Billion. That is, less than 0.6% of GDP. Yup, rounding error - or the equivalent of a six pack of cheap beer per month for Americans at the poverty level.
There is always hope. Maybe you all could create al-Qaeda influenced cells here in America and prove that playing offense in the Middle East is not making Americans safer here. What will you call your organization – ‘Ignit Lefty al-Qaeda Supplicants in America’. Has a nice ring to it!!!
Saturday, May 05, 2007
Re(2): 'Monthly Treasury Statement, April 2007', United States Treasury
Carnac must retire from the Federal Budget prognostication business...
I mentioned in an earlier post that BusHitler, the 'Great Monkey Ape', seemed to be streamlining the budget process. I even mentioned the whole TQM approach of measuring and managing processes. The fact that the woefully incompetent - and slow - Congressional Budget Office is quickly reviewing and posting information based on the Monthly Treasury Statement is testament to that fact that the budget process is now more manageable.
The CBO actually crunched and posted an adjustment to their estimates four days after the end of April. This is very good, and a very positive thang. But, if they did it right it does make predicting tax receipts and government expenditures a bit boring.
Here are the numbers:
|April||to Date||Change||Annual Projection|
However, things are far bleaker if one uses the ratios from the remaining months as the determinant factors:
|April||to Date||Change||Annual Projection|
This would incorporate the $100 Billion dollar Defense Supplimental. Even the DOD can only spend so much money a month on gold plated screwdrivers!!!
But, and this is a rather large sized but...
There is no additional Katrina money being spent!!!
Thus, I still lean toward my preseason pick of $68 Billion as the FY2007 deficit...
Oh, the humanity...
My guess is that we will hear nothing of this. I mean the gnashing of teeth over a deficit of 0.51% of GDP should be audible from the moon.
The end is near...
The end of annual deficits, I mean!!!
Friday, April 06, 2007
Re(2): 'Beslan memorial plan angers Russian Muslim leader', Reuters, Christian Lowe
To me the key paragraph is:
"It is not acceptable to present this tragedy as the tragedy of followers of only one religion," Sheikh Ravil Gainutdin, chairman of the Council of Russian Muftis, said in a statement.
"We need a monument on this site that symbolises a national tragedy, without any religious undertones, where everyone can come and shed their tears."
My response to the concerns expressed by Sheikh Ravil Gainutdin, chairman of the Council of Russian Muftis, is that his religion is included in the proposed document...
It wouldn't be their but for Radical Islamism!!!
Sunday, March 11, 2007
Tomorrow, Paul Krugman will explode in almost sexual release.
He will have to dry clean his shorts because the annual running total of the US Deficit will again exceed $100 Billion. It might be as much as $150 Billion. Only five months into BusHitler's proliferate budgetary wastage. Oh the joy for Paul Krugman et. al. If only we could also incorporate a recession he could kill his column knowing he was right in the end!!!
That damn monkey of a President took surpluses as far as the eye could see and turned them into Halliburton profits. What he will neglect to tell his honored readers (actually, patients) is that February is normally a miserable month for tax receipts – and usually a boon for government bloat. For example, one can watch the effects of the ‘War for Oil and the Subjugation of Brown People’ Supplementals on expenditures over the past few years.
February revenues are fairly easy to SWAG. My guess is that it will come in at about $126 Billion – which, by the way, is $24 Billion higher than FY1997’s February revenue stream inflation adjusted.
February expenditures are all over the map. If you model your numbers on the mid-1990’s than you expect expenditure numbers for February to be about 4% higher than January. If you use war-time number you expect a growth of 7% - 8%. I am actually going to run for safety and assume a growth rate of February over January of about 4%. That’s right Randy Rhodent listeners – I am going to assume February numbers roughly equivalent to Clinton’s era PAX Americana when we were not killing people who declared war on us.
Oh my god, how can one be so naïve. Here is one good reason. After studying the numbers it has become apparent that our ignorant fool of a President is normalizing the budget process. That is, he is lucking into a process that is more predictable. To summarize:
|February||to Date||Change||Annual Projection|
Now here is a very odd thought.It is very conceivable that expenditures will be in the $218 Billion range and revenues in the $128 Billion range. That will result in: Revenue:
|February||to Date||Change||Annual Projection|
Folks, at those numbers we are looking at a surplus in September 2007.
Me still thinks we will run a small deficit. There will be a supplemental for our egregious war on civilization – one that occurs later this year than in years past. But, the deficit will be so minimal as to be rounding error. However, one can hope that Byrd and Stevens can’t get it together to carve up the pork on their serving plate. So far, the split leadership can’t agree on who gets which cuts. Maybe the big eaters will starve for a year, eh…
Saturday, February 17, 2007
Re(2): '"Supporting the Troops" Means... Supporting the Troops', My Sandmen, Major Mike
Internal intrigues are not the true equal to external dangers.
Intrigue simply paves the way for externally driven destruction. When internal conflict seems more at hand than the external enemy we focus on the internal. However, it is the outside threat that destroys a state, a culture, a civilization.
Ask these questions:
Why is the Hagia Sofia a mosque?
Do you respect the Greek Navy?
Why is Latin a dead language?
So, a vocal minority and the silly masses in America compete ever more belligerently in a forty year long culture war while various external threats smolder. Many discount – or prejudge as inconsequential and ineffective – the external threats we face to our state, our culture, and our civilization. But, the threat of rolling back ‘the Great Leap Forward’ brings out the battle standards.
So, think this through. Our culture can internally shift more traditional – but progressives can continue to agitate for goals in-line with that value structure. Our culture values that agitation. Our culture requires that agitation. However, enemies outside our cultural umbrella do not respect and do not value much of anything fought over in the Culture War. They want to see it end.
Why is an Illini not an Indian?
Where is the Christmas Pageant?
Is there anything worth fighting for?
Friday, February 16, 2007
Re(2): 'Battle of Thermopylae', Wikipedia
Re(3): 'Battle of Herdonia', Wikipedia
When sending men off to battle Spartan women told their men to come home with your shield or on it. The men were to fight and return with dignity or die trying.
However, You never drop your shield…
Simply put, you die when you drop your shield.
You die an inglorious death. A death without dignity or meaning. You do not face the enemy with your armor. You have nobody protecting your flanks. You get stabbed in the back – by an unforgiving victor. That enemy then moves onward – ever closer to your home and hearth. Dropping shields and fleeing fields resulted in the greatest massacres in military history. And, each coward's last thought is this truth.
The Libs have for years whined about the martial apect of American sports. They hate the reality that while on the court you can win, you can lose, but you do not quit…
The following Republicans dropped their shields today:
Representative James T. WalshThey shall only be remembered because they will never be forgiven…
Representative Walter Jones
Representative Wayne Gilchrest
Representative Michael Castle
Representative Richard (Ric) Keller
Representative Philip Sheridan English
Representative Ronald Ernest Paul
Representative Frederick Stephen Upton
Representative Thomas M. Davis
Representative Mark Kirk
Representative Howard Coble
Representative John J. Duncan Jr.
Representative James Ramstad
Representative Steven C. LaTOURETTE
Representative Robert Inglis
Representative Timothy V. Johnson
Representative Thomas Petri
Sunday, February 11, 2007
Re(2): 'Federal Budget Slashing in Progress', Me
Re(3): 'Watching the Deficit', Me
Re(4): 'Brad and Other Libs Miss Deficit by Just 39%!!!' Me
Re(5): 'Budget Deficit Estimation' (FY2006), Me
Here comes another Monthly Treasury Statement - and, yes Randi Rhodent listeners, the Monthly Treasury Statement includes all the 'Emergency Supplimentals' for the War or whatever. Please, dear Rhodents, don't send me estimated budgets that still project a $423 Billion deficit for FY2006 - those numbers are all in and you lost...
So the MTS balance sheet will magically appear at 0900 EST on February 12 - the eighth working day after the end of the month. If you are reading this prior to that date/time Do Not Click. It ain't there. This is a premonition.
Here are the predictions:
- Individual Income Tax Revenue will increase (~10%)...
- Social Security Payroll Tax Revenue will increase (~10%)...
- Corporate Income Tax Revenue will increase significantly (~20%)...
- and, split government will limit the increase of Federal Spending to 2%
I think the 2% growth in Federal spending will hold this year. Even the Libs can't spend all the money allocated to their pet projects. And, the military will not be able to spend all that is thrown their way - for the second year in a row!!!
I now think we will have about 11% revenue growth in FY2007.
Please note the sweet spot in the above chart. Recent trends indicate that the Monthly Treasury Statement numbers for the running deficit first four months of FY2007 will be about 1/3rd of the total deficit - no big surprise, eh... However, posting large December/January back to back surpluses portend very good things...
My projections for a $60 Billion deficit imply a $40 Billion dollar surplus for January.
That will match with the $44 Billion surplus for December.
Good things are happening...
Saturday, February 10, 2007
Re(2): 'Hamas Wants West to End Blockade', The Age
Progress It Is!!!
"We have agreed with the Saudis to market this agreement internationally."
Hamas will market New Terror!!! A more overt, state sponsored, and state
protected variant of the barbarism they currently aspire too. Maybe they can use
AP to Photoshop the old 'New Coke' ads to save money!!!
"We will never recognize Israel. There is nothing called Israel"
That is an agreement all Fascists can start with. Actually, not all Fascists.
Many Fascists find other scapegoats - but the real ones can always hearken to
the golden oldie!!! We westerners can dust off the Chamberlain backgrounders on
how to deal with Fascists – especially when we identify ‘a man we can work
with’. Heck, maybe dust off the ‘Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact’ if we are really
adventurous and/or duplicitous!
"We, in the Hamas movement, will not abide by anything."
There always has to be a starting point, eh. The Global Community has to find
the lowest common denominator to initiate a frank and open discussion. I think
this might be the lowest common denominator ever brought into the peace process.
Maybe even a bit lower than ceding a sovereign nation to Nazi Germany.
I don’t know…
Bring on Jimmy…
Only Time will tell!!!
Thursday, February 01, 2007
Re(2): 'The Arrogant and Intolerant Speak Out', Washington Post, Arkin in the Drunk Tank
Re(3): 'A Note to My Readers', Washington Post, A William Arkin under treatment
I am on a bender too!!!
But I am enjoying a glass of ‘Beaulieu Vineyard 2004 Beauzeaux’ that to my pitiful palette is very good. Very good indeed…
But why admit to Boozin’ While Bloggin’?
Because, a Mr. Arkin seems to have the same affliction.
Mr. Arkin posted an ‘Early Warning’ on the WoPo blog while on an end-game drunk. The one question I had (that I attempted to post, but was not permitted to) revolved around a bit too much booze and a whole lotta prune juice. I thought he emptied his shit-bag of an 'id' on the crap paper we know as the Washington Post. Oh, well… I probably should have softened my tone...
So, Arkin sobers up a bit yesterday and writes an apology – sort of… It is I who is arrogant. Not he. While I have never, will never, and can never, have the honor of serving my nation in the military I still take affront to this. He accomplished this feat of excellence one day after a full on slobbering binge – but only sober enough to create complete sentences of acceptable structure. Must have been difficult, though…
And now, our hero – the Arkin Man – has sobered to the point on quasi-apology. But, how do you apologize for stating what you believe? You can’t….
I love it when some brilliant piece of shit - one I could decimate on any topic - informs me to appreciate his betters. Since this blog entry is the first to cuss I will puctuate it with a hearty Fuck You to the Arkin Man...
I hope there is a 12 Step Program for Boozin’ Haters of America…
Yeah, that’s the ticket…
Monday, January 15, 2007
The blog 'Back Talk' is now linked permanently in my blog roll. It has become one of the few I roll through (see below) when I have some time. His analysis using objective data is impressive. I think he has influenced my style without me knowing it. That style differs, but complements, the more subjective observations of Wretchard, MM, Atos, and the Anchoress. Obviously it differs from the on-site efforts of Roggio and Yon. Like Wretchard and Atos and Roggio he has a strategic overview sense of things. Always worth reviewing.
I hope this is not the case but it appears that SecurityWatchTower fell off the map. I don't know if C.S. Scott and the rest are just changing hosts or what. Regardless, their site is now mapped to an open domain. I regret this far more than most will ever know. SecurityWatchtower was one of the first three sites I would visit whenever I started a blog surf. The others being 'The Belmont Club', and Instapundit. That is not bad company. I know the folks at SecurityWatchtower peruse this site every once in a while - please point me to the new domain!!!
But, rather funny... I am still banned from Brave Sir DeLong's (the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury under President Clinton) slightly errant web-site. While not a brain surgeon, I can look at ratios and trends. Brad, if those ratios and trends do not change than your system is in stasis. The economy, and the federal budgets are at least in stasis. Maybe you are coming to that realization because you now have very few posts on the federal deficit. I value your vaunted opinion as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury under
President Clinton. Are you waiting for a terrorist hit to wipe out a city to bitch and whine about Bush's Budget Follies again!!! Come on Brad, give me a shot at the sycophants that post on your site - and don't delete the comments when they are objective, factual, and sourced - eh... Apparently Mr. DeLong - the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury under President Clinton - deleted
ALL of my comments on the post in question. It looks like your brain surgeon sycophants are arguing with a rock. Even Arianna Huffington was more honest with her readers than thee - she relinked the entire thread she was hammered in...
Oh, Dear God…
Death and Dismemberment…
How can we survive the budget cuts of FY2007?
The homeless… The children… Our Education… The military… Health Insurance... Science… Temple Construction… Monument Design… Wars of Imperialism… The Fourth Reich… My Mental State of Being…
Hear the howls of protest and derision?
No, neither do I.
Quietly, the inability of the Oinkers from the Right to agree with the Swine from the Left resulted in budgetary gridlock through at least February!!! Dear God, most of the Federal Government must cinch its belt and survive on last year’s budget.
Oh, the humanity.
But, there is a silver lining in every cloud. If our nation’s governmental apparatus does not collapse into the very dust of its own substance as a result of these severe cutbacks (one year’s inflation – ie. about 2%) we might be looking at a budget surplus for FY2007. Here is how the numbers work out:
The revenue numbers are the actual revenues for FY2006 and projections derived from expected growth - and, no, these are not silly CBO and OMB numbers that project a decrease in tax revenue. It ain't going to happen Lefties so get over it. Personally, I think the growth noted with the grey background is most likely - but things are starting to look even better as the month of January has moved on... Thus, it is not silly to start looking at the +13% - +15% numbers.
Actually, it might be a bit better. I am using projected growth for the Department of Defense and the Department of Health and Human Services to generate the expenditure number. These seem to be the only Departments that are still complaining about their belly ‘dunlapping’ over their belts. Unbelievably, however, the expenditures are almost flat this quarter. But, lets not hope for the best and get slammed in the face. We can be certain that big chunks of both political American Parties can agree on one thing - and one thing only. Even a blind sow can find an acorn in the trough, eh...
I don’t know how we are going to survive.
I will have to feed, water, clothe, house, and transport myself.
Oh, the humanity!!!
A post at Extreme Mortman provided access to a petulant letter submitted by the print media regarding the exemption of still photographer access to the President during the January 10, 2007 Presidential Speech. My God, the still photographers were unable to snap three thousand photos and pick a chimpy image of our President during a wartime speech on wartime strategy. Here is a response to Tom - who seems to be a decent and professional still photographer for the media:
Tell me again, why as a citizen of the United States of America - during wartime (and I know most of your profession does not think we are at war) - I am forced to place into history another photo selected by a childish press corps that tries to outdo each other in the picking of smirks and pursed lips of a leader at war.
This was a serious speech at a serious time.
While the still photographers might be serious people - but, that seems to be in question as well - your editors are not serious people.
Would the WWII press corps select an especially weak and powerless image of President Roosevelt after Rommel crushed the United States at the Kasserine Pass? The press corps at that time was mature enough not too. Please claim they did not have those photos. How about those photos of Nimitz, Stimson, or Roosevelt after Pearl Harbor. Where are the peoples’ photos during the months of stalemate following D-Day – or maybe even some doubting and worried images in the NYT during D-Day? Not on the cover of the NYT or the Left Angeles Times.
Regretfully, your profession has lost the confidence of the American people.
That, by the way, is a very bad thing.
I do not like or enjoy it.
But, it is true.
Deal with it… I was hoping the embed process would initiate younger journalist into the fog of war and into the righteousness of this conflict. I was hoping the young embeds, as they migrated back into the stateside newsrooms, would add balance, common sense, and an understanding that we are doing the right thing. That they could battle the old War Horse Vietnam Cadre Press Corps that denigrates anything they touch. Regretfully, the American people lost that battle. But, as you can see, the American people are not losing the war. We are ignoring you. We are seeking information from other sources. We no longer care about your privileges and pompous demands. It is not you that is being denigrated; it
is the other 90% of your profession that is being trashed. Your profession is seen as no better than biased bloggers – but at least the bloggers note their biases.
You still have time to turn this around, can you see what you have to do.
Saturday, January 13, 2007
Ok Libs, I Give – Tell Me Where to Redeploy…
I have heard Democratic CongressCritters holler about a ‘Redeployment Plan’ for our fighting forces in Iraq. This implies a few things:
- That they know where to redeploy the troops
- That the troops can redeploy into Iraq if necessary
Here are some factoids to take into consideration:
1. The ‘horizon line’ is 25 miles. Thus, to ‘deploy just over the horizon’ implies redeploying our troops a half hour outside of Baghdad. Here is a map of the Baghdad region for your perusal:
2. Maybe you are talking about the borders of Iraq. Redeploying ‘over the horizon’ of Iraq’s borders means a large military footprint in Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Syria. You could, of course, attempt to force Kuwait to accept a huge military infrastructure on their tiny territory – but that might not be too sensible if there is a threat of WMD attack (and Iran has, and has used, WMD). Jordan is land-locked and moving units through Israel to Jordan will not be popular with the new Caliphate or Terror State. Here is a map of the region you can use as a convenient tool to identify the sovereign state that would, and could, gladly accept our 150,000 troops:
3. Maybe, the horizon line extends to any part of the world reachable by the fastest terrestrial vehicle known to man. I think we have clocked jet cars at about 300 miles/hour on the salt flats. I think, however, that it will take some time to invent and build troop transport capable of 300 miles/hour. And, to do it in an environmentally safe manner might be impossible!
4. Maybe that horizon line is a Blackbird wing away. However, for this brilliant solution to succeed we have to overcome even more problems than noted in point 3.
Thus, I think those who take the challenge seriously must be restricted to the environs of Baghdad, the Anbar Province, or the nation states bordering Iraq. As a secondary challenge, please provide a military and tactical reason to surrender a hill taken – just to attack it again in the near future.
Where are we redeploying to? Your turn:
Friday, January 12, 2007
Re(2): 'Clock ticking on Dems' 100-hour agenda', Associated Press, Kasie Hunt
It is true
At some indeterminate timeslice in
Speaker Pelosi’s Magnificent First 100 Hours (or so)
Big Tuna lobby.
Thursday, January 11, 2007
Re(2): 'Dubya's New Plan to Balance the U.S. Budget', The Daily Reckoning, Ian Mathias
Howdy Folks - all five readers. The above link doesn't exist yet. It will magically appear tomorrow. Will it tell a story tomorrow that is better or worse than what follows...
But, with lots of caveats...
It is rather dumb to predict Federal spending with two months of data. So these numbers shouldn't be used when debating some Lib. Next months numbers will provide enough data to whack-a-mole a Lib or two and win some bets.
However, here is one recent bet I made and won: President Bush promised to cut the deficit in half by FY2009 (his last budget). He made that promise using the CBO FY2004 estimate of a $512 Billion dollar deficit. The media scoffed, the Dems wailed... 1/2 of $512 Billion is $256 Billion. Last years deficit was $247 Billion. He wins, I win. At least I got a decent lunch out of it. What did Bush get for being right and being early. Nada.
Now for this year (FY2007).
Right now we are running a $124 Billion deficit - a 4.31% reduction from last year. Revenues are up 8.75% while spending is up a mere 4.74%.
The interesting factoid is that the Gubmint is running without a budget and cannot exceed last years spending by more than inflation. What does that mean in the greater scheme of things.
- We might hold spending to a 4% increase
- Even that spending might be reduced because of gridlock
- And, we will not be funding Katrina (already paid for last year)
- And who knows about the annual $100 Billion military supplemental
Thus, we are looking at FY2007 1st Qtr (2006/12) numbers as follows:
- Receipts: $588,533 Million
- Outlays: $669,004 Million
- Deficit: $ 80,471 Million
With those numbers we are looking at annual FY2007 numbers as follows:
- Receipts: $2,671,409 Million
- Outlays: $2,734,524 Million
- Deficit: $ 63,115 Million
Our GDP will be about $13,000,000 Million
The deficit will consume 0.49% of GDP
The deficit will be 2.3% of spending
And, the budget will be in surplus in FY2008 - just in time for the Presidential Elections!!!
Rosy... Me thinks not. The worse case scenario (not including acts of God and the like) would result in an FY2007 deficit of $145 Billion. Basically, the growing economy and the minimal spending restraint shown by the Pigs in the Trough lop off about $100 Billion a year in the defict. Thus, by FY2009 we are looking at a surplus of between $50 Billion and $130 Billion...
Quite a Legacy, eh...
Thursday, January 04, 2007
Spook86 discusses the naming of major command ships in the US Navy. He rightfully decries the politicized process behind naming capital ships. He also expresses a concern about the naming selection that awaits for the sister ships of the Ford CVNs.
He is, alas, too late. A new, and vastly improved capital ship class has already been designed and will wear the moniker of William Jefferson Clinton. She has, in fact, already been spotted at sea trials (August 2005, New Orleans). What follows is a brief synopsis for both of my readers:
Military History Buffs!!!
The U.S.S. William Jefferson Clinton did indeed sail prior to the U.S.S. Hillary Rodham Clinton. Crewed ably by Sean Penn, she sailed dramatically (and peacefully!!!) into the murky waters of New Orleans. However, the rapacious warmongers of Congress increased the military budget so she was redesigned as a three-man ship with provisions for four. This came in handy since an able captain, a legacy photographer, and a noted biographer must man all warships of the Clinton class.
This photo demonstrates the viability of this concept. While there was no space for transporting rescued Americans, America can indeed show concern and immediacy with this warship. Also, this fine vessel stored enough food and water for four stranded citizens for one day. With a flotilla of 7,500 such ships sailing daily we could have dealt with the situation in New Orleans much better and much faster. This proves that posing and posturing are forms of leadership that work. Planning, logistics, and coordinated action are unnecessary in the 21st Century as is proved by Sean Penn and the U.S.S. William Jefferson Clinton.
Note: Minor flaws in preparing the warship for active duty precluded even the appearance of saving children or the feeding of the stranded. However, Captain Penn has described his sortie as a success and President Bush's efforts as inadequate, too slow, and impeachably cheap. In addition, the Superdome was evacuated Friday, September 2 2005. The Convention Center was evacuated Saturday, September 3 2005. Regrettably, the U.S.S. William Jefferson Clinton sailed forth on Sunday, September 4, 2005. Our hope is that future sorties will save thousands!!!
Recruiting poster for the 'U.S.S. William Jefferson Clinton':
'An Army of One'. For all active duty (of any force - we are a bit desperate), we are seeking volunteers to man the U.S.S. William Jefferson Clinton. There are no minimum requirements. There is no minimum rank. There are no physical or mental challenges placed in your way - serving on this peaceship will lead to far greater self-esteem than serving anywhere else in this military. Actually, we don't care if you are actually in the military - as long as we can fit you to some type of uniform or another. By the way, the chain of command of all ships of the Clinton class ultimately lead to either William Jefferson Clinton or Hillary Rodham Clinton. This ensures civilian authority over part of the military and their use of deadly force.
The 'U.S.S. William Jefferson Clinton' is the first of the Clinton class of warship. It embodies all the necessities of being cheap (I mean inexpensive), inexpensive in manpower requirements, inexpensive in negative publicity if sunk, inexpensive in lethality since our goals are humanitarian, and inexpensive in scariness... The second ship, the 'U.S.S. Hillary Rodham Clinton' is currently under construction. Construction of the Rodham Clinton may actually be completed and sea trials finished before the problems with the Jefferson Clinton are worked out. Regardless, the Rodham Clinton will enhance the current Jefferson Clinton class by streamlining the medical insurance of the crew. The third ship, the 'U.S.S. Cohen', is being designed carefully by Mr. Cohen himself. There will be a TV on board to ensure that missions can always be recalled by a careful review of CNN broadcasts. This ship is over budget and way behind schedule. Mr. Cohen is staying up all night every night - right now he is concerned about the paint scheme. In the wings is the 'U.S.S. Albright' which will be the most forward of the peaceships Clinton. She will be the iron fist behind the felt glove. I sure hope the meanies in the world watch out when she sails free. Regretfully, construction of the 'U.S.S Sandy Berger' is now delayed. The schematics and drafting plans seem to have been misplaced.
Wednesday, January 03, 2007
But, in a time of war???
Oh, that's right, there is no war...
LBJ, how many children did you kill today!!!
"De-escalate, investigate, troops home now!!!
To my Lefty friends, at least this memorable chant isn't in 'Black and White'! My challenge still stands, however. Please use the comments section to provide links to ANY memorable speech by any liberal President that is in color. And, when I say memorable I actually mean memorable in a good way. Therefore President Carter's brilliant malaise speech really doesn't count.
Re(2): 'Total War', USS Clueless, Steven den Beste
Re(3): 'The Peace Party vs. The Power Party', The Weekly Standard, Matthew Continetti
Re(4): 'The Three Conjectures', The Belmont Club, Wretchard T.C.
A still small voice seems to be thundering...
We have decided, as a civilization, to ignore the region, the people, and the culture of the Middle East for more than three decades. In fact, far more than three decades. But, three decades in which we have been the target of aggression by those peoples and that culture.
We must engage that culture culturally. While they do not have the means to destroy our civilization, globalization has provided them the means of disrupting us to the point we may eat our own. One way we destroy our own values and our own culture is to stand by in some form of Sitzkrieg and wait till we can defend ourselves only through the ‘Second Conjecture’ solution of genocide. Any information age total war will be a war of genocide. Imagine a weak President after 9/11. Imagine that Putin was not constrained (he must have been) after Beslan. While some may want a more forceful posture there is a balance – and once that tipping point is met and exceeded (since none know where it is to be found) than future generations will judge our actions.
The Left (the Peace Party) refuses the power of the kinetic influence. The Right (‘The Power Party’) often refuses the influence of soft power. Judgments have to be made and made soon. We are in for a long conflict that requires leadership and vision, or we are in for a short conflict that requires acceptance of genocide. Are we really at the point of promoting and accepting the second option? Is another thirty years of Sitzkrieg going to really change our options? In the end we really do have to dance to the same tune, eh…
That is history.
I pray history finds us informed, just, and victorious.