Saturday, December 09, 2006

The Race is On!!!

Re(1): "Declare War on Iran's Economy", BackTalk, Engram

Autocracies fail catastrophically when they fail.

This one is failing. I guess there were smarter people than I reviewing the situation if these reports are to be trusted – and they do match the reports from early spring regarding the reduction in fuel import by the Iranian government. That is another reason our form of economy and government will win out in the long haul – can you imagine if our government was the direct purchaser and owner of our fuel needs?

Now Iran must answer basic questions.

It must answer the question of whether it can support Hezbollah after Hezbollah destroyed southern Lebanon. Can Iran rebuild Lebanon after their very own self-induced Katrina? Can they do so as oil prices fall and oil production plummets? Can they induce Halliburton to rebuild their oil infrastructure under the threat of air strikes that they cannot defend and under the cloud of nationalizing the assets once they are profitable?

Can Iran continue on their Manhattan Project when America doesn’t really seem strategically concerned with the Ill One in North Korea? When we still attacked Iraq even though we ‘knew’ there were WMD capabilities – one of the reasons we did not mass troops and attack WWII style?

And, can Iran continue to hold client states? Unlike North Korea, which is a client state of China, Iran is the 'owner' of many regional states and groups. They are the 'power' that drives the regions terror. Without assets and influence they will lose their clients - and in this part of the world clients that lose their papa are in a very precarious position.

My personal question remains: Will Iran fail before we quit? I think so. Rope-A-Dope will take two years and I don’t think Iran with its meager economy will survive that long (just a guess). If Iran collapses as a revolutionary force than Iraq will be a very interesting place.

1 comment:

Donald Douglas said...

Iran needs constant pressure from the West if it's going to collapse. Appeasement is happening in the EU, so it's going to be up to us to tip Iran over. The mullahs are pretty entrenched, and they've got oil profits to prop up the economy. They're also pushing for regional hegemony through the creation of a Shiite arc of regimes supporting Tehran. Hezbollah's success in the summer war was backed by Iran, and could be a precursor to a larger campaign to wipe out Israel and remove American power across the Middle East.

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