Sunday, March 20, 2005

The Net Never Forgets...

re(1): "Hezbollah fighters moved to Iraq for operations against U.S.", The Command Post

Regretfully (for those proven wrong) on-line activity is forever. So here is a reasonable chaps wager from June 20, 2004 in this Command Post blog:

Why is US foreign policy disliked by the vast majority of the world's population? The answer to this question will depend on whether you think that the world's population is mistaken, or whether you are prepared to entertain the notion that US foreign policy is in contradiction with the interests of the vast majority of the population of the globe, Americans included. Either way, you have some thinking to do - real thinking, not the embarrassing armchair general proposals for impossible victories found here at the moment. I will revisit this site in three months. In the meantime, I make four predictions:

1. The security situation in Iraq will continue to deteriorate, with more areas including East Baghdad becoming no-go zones for the US.

2. The interim government will fall out with the US and fall apart as it tries to reflect Iraqi public opinion and oppose military operations.

3. The insurgencies in Pakistan and Saudi Arabia will escalate, and it will be even clearer that rebels are motivated by anti-US feelings, and that Musharaf and the Saud are the last lines of US defense in the countries, not thorns in the US side.

4. The trend against the war in US polls will continue, and a clear majority will consistently oppose the occupation. Kerry will opportunistically respond to this by making some more aggressive anti-occupation statements.

If these predictions are accurate, then you ought to think about the analysis of the situation in Iraq I'm putting forward. Who wants to the last pundit to argue a mistake?


So let’s revisit (I decided to give this chap 9 months):

1. The US can go as it pleases – including Fallujah and the other ‘River Cities’. Reports are that folks of all types are moving about the city. The casualty count for Coalition troops is declining rapidly. The vote took place in the teeth of the maniacs…

2. They didn’t oppose military operations. The Iraqis are actually taking the lead in wiping out the unwanted insurgency.

3. The insurgencies in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are being dealt with in ways that are a bit tougher than American sensibilities could handle- ah, multiculturalism…

4. Uuuummmm, the reason I looked for this post is that there were huge protests this weekend. It must be that the right wing media conglomerates are not televising the millions in the streets. Even Europe seems rather subdued…

So, your predictions are 0 for 4 - should I gloat? Your reasoned (and I welcome anyone to check out the blog entry and comments in question – some insightful discussions with sharp people including Julius and Jeffers) argument was well thought out and viable. Therefore, I will not gloat – but I ‘am not the last pundit to argue a mistake’.l... As we all know – ‘For whom the bell tolls, it tolls for the…’. I’m absolutely certain my time will come. Google my name in the future and some embarrassments will be found…

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