Sunday, August 07, 2011

4th Turning Choices...

Re(1): 'The Long-Term Stakes of the Debt-Ceiling Fracas', Forbes, Brink Lindsey
Re(2): 'The Fourth Turning', William Strauss and Neil Howe
HT: RealClearMarkets

The referenced article is probably the best I have read on the debt ceiling and debt management topic.Basically, it comes down to Boomers not paying for their stuff. So, we have a range of options.

  • Pay for the stuff

  • Cut the stuff

  • A Mix
Now, it might be important to remember that all you Boomers are asking the GenXers to pay the bill.

  • On the positive side, GenXers are pragmatic, self-sufficient, practical, perceptive, and savvy.

  • On the negative side, GenXers are tough, uncultured, amoral, and unfeeling.
In a '4th Turning' the Boomers will promote culture changing ideas, the GenXers will fight. We are watching that now.

In my opinion, we will watch much of the welfare state fat get wiped away in the next ten years. Remember, Boomers are of two minds. The Burlap Sack and Birkenstock archetype and the Gingrich archetype. You know where I stand. And, who has been winning the fight these last twenty years?

If I were to guess, this is in the wings:

  • Balanced Budget - not an Amendment, just the hard choices

  • A Flatter, less 'Progressive' Tax System - Everybody Pays for Stuff

  • An increase in Medicare Taxes - Anyone think 2% pays for Medical Stuff

  • A Cut in Social Security - With the Bush Option of investing part in the Market

  • A Cut in Welfare Benefits - Leading off with Wiping out Benefits for Citizens of another Country

  • A Cut in Defense Spending - But, with a Hard Headed Approach to Benefits, Strategy, and Material

  • A Decimation of Federal Departments that Came into Existence During the 1970s 'Doing What Feels Right' Mood
In affect, the contraction of the Nanny State.I know there are other opinions, but how do you fight for a continuation of not funding your largess? Look back at the GenXers. Do you see hope there? Where are your knife fighters?

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