American Political Trends - Where are we going...

Re(1): 'National Journal's 2005 Congressional Vote Ratings', National Journal
Re(2): 'American Conservative Union Ratings of Congress', American Conservative Union

Howling from the left, howling from the right. The Republicans are going to lose seats. They will lose control of the House and Senate. There will be investigations of a President during wartime. The end is near.

The Eye of Sauron gazes upon us!!!

Get that damn ring off and have a beer or two. Mellow out dude. Its August...

Think of it this way:

When you are on the basketball court and the other team has to change its lineup and game plan who do you think is winning. The radio announcers may claim to respect the coaches ability to change up and adjust, but who is winning the game

In the context of this report, what are the long term political trends, and what does it mean to us?

I reviewed Senatorial voting patterns using two fact sets. First, the lifetime voting rating provided by the American Conservative Union. Then the 2005 voting rating provided by the National Journal. The obvious weakness in this review is the fact that I am using National Journal numbers for one year - not a lifetime rating. That said, the numbers from National Journal gel with those of the ACU. Additionally, I don't even play a statistician on the radio - so any advice is well appreciated.

Republican Senators by Initial Election Year:

Election Year	ACU	NJ Economics	NJ Social	NJ Foreign	NJ Conservative%
1968-76	69.00	65.50	57.50	74.00	70.60
1976-80	82.75	69.50	62.00	65.50	70.15
1980-92	81.78	74.89	66.11	62.67	72.27
1992-00	83.73	72.50	63.45	61.77	70.16
2000-06	90.83	69.06	70.33	68.61	75.53
Average	84.77	71.49	65.47	64.64	72.03

Democrat Senators by Initial Election Year:

Election Year	ACU	NJ Economics	NJ Social	NJ Foreign	NJ Conservative%
1968-76	5.00	17.50	13.50	14.00	16.90
1976-80	7.00	21.33	22.67	15.00	25.33
1980-92	12.17	19.00	19.83	23.35	22.43
1992-00	12.43	21.14	19.57	17.00	21.09
2000-06	19.73	25.91	20.45	29.36	27.12
Average	11.26	20.98	19.20	19.74	22.57

The simple implication is that the newest Democratic Senators are - in a significant way - transitioning conservative from their long term mean. New Democratic Senators are:

• 8.5 points higher on the American Conservative Unions lifetime voting record
• And, a whopping 14.26 points higher than the Liberal Ancient Regime!

And, in 2005 Democratic Senators elected from 2000 onward were:

• 4.93% more conservative on Economic votes than previous classes
• 1.25% more liberal on Social votes
• 9.62% more conservative on Foreign Affairs votes
• 4.53% more conservative overall.
• and, a whopping 15% more conservative on Foreign Affairs votes than the Ancients

In the meantime, the Republicans seem more at ease with their deals. Republican Senators elected for the first time in 2000 or later are:

• 6 points higher on the American Conservative Unions lifetime voting record

And, in 2005 Republican Senators elected from 2000 onward were:

• 2.43% less conservative on Economic votes than previous classes
• 4.86% more conservative on Social votes
• 3.97% more conservative on Foreign Affairs votes
• and, 3.50% more conservative overall.

Folks, for all the hue and cry, it is not the growing Republican majority that is changing its principles and game plan - it is the Democrats. We are about to see that Party fragment. The younger, more conservative studs will want - ney, need - to take control of that Party. Listen to the screaming about voting Pelosi out if she doesn't gain a majority. Reid will be gone. The American public - taken as a whole - does not respond well electorally to someone that has a single digit ACU rating. They are unelectable - and getting more so. These bubbas can be elected locally, but who wants them running a national effort. By their very nature they are out of the mainstream.

This recent conservative shift started in 2000 and will continue through at least 2012. It will take years for the Democrats to sort themselves out - and the little Lamont temper tantrum ain't helping things. Right now, the only folks who could save the Democratic Party (Bill Nelson, Ben Nelson, Mark Pryor, and Ken Salazar) will not clear the Idiotarian Party primaries. There is nobody in the wings palatable to the general public.

Finally, I think this explains the consternation regarding President Bush. If I were to put him on the ACU scale (by twitching my nose somewhat scientifically) he would be right around Senator Norm Coleman of Minisota. The American public is now demanding someone in the Frist to Allen range. It is not President Bush that is changing, it is us...

That is a very good thing...