Sauron Reporting Doom from Mount Doom..

Re(1): 'U.S. Army records 10th straight month exceeding recruiting goals', SecurityWatchTower, C.S. Scott
Re(2): 'Iraq Coalition Casualty Count', Iraq Coalition Casualty Count
Re(3): 'Budget Deficit Estimation...', Me
Re(4): 'Federal Budget Deficit - MoveOn Libs, nothing to see here', Me

Byline: Mr. Sauron, Reporting from Mount Doom

After reading C.S. Scott’s post ‘U.S. Army records 10th straight month exceeding recruiting goals’ I immediately thought of a few other topics the media is silent about:

Military Recruiting: All active duty recruiting goals have been met or exceeded. Reserve recruiting has been spotty. I, however, contend that current Administration and DOD goals are deemphasizing reserve and guard strength. That cannot be stated for political reasons – but review the BRAC base closings. Reserve and Guard commands were ‘streamlined’ and closed at a much higher rate than active duty stations. Can anyone deny that the Army should restructure to more of a Marine Corps force structure?

Iraq Quagmire: Since the ratification of the Iraqi Constitution in October 2005 the Coalition fatality rate has dropped from 3.19/day to 2.07/day. This includes traffic accidents and the like, but the statistics are drawn consistently so we are comparing apples to apples. This month (March 2006) we are looking at a 0.91/day rate. At these low numbers any lucky hit by al Qaeda in Iraq will affect the rates. Regardless, the rates are in a rather dramatic decline.

Iraq Civil War: The statistics do not support that contention even though there has been a little upturn in Iraqi casualties. Here is what appears to be happening in our media: CNN will report an atrocity today, CBS tomorrow will report the same thing tomorrow, and ABC will follow a bit later. The viewer sees the same event three times as three discrete events. View the link and note how many mass attrocities are documented - and then remember how they were presented in the media. Day after day the same mass killing would be presented - and be presented in a slant that made them seem like new events.

Unemployment: National Unemployment rates have dropped from 6% in 2003 to less than 5% in 2006. Neither rate results in soup lines and migrations of populations. And, 5% is considered full employment. Right now wages are going up and the Federal Reserve is concerned about inflation. Unemployment concerns???

Economic Growth: Since 2003 we have had an average of 3.5% GDP growth. That is a perfect number. Neither too fast for a boom, nor slow enough to throw the US into a recession. This reasonable growth rate is sustainable and is the reason why many are whining about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates for ten consecutive cycles.

Annual Deficit: FY2003’s deficit was 3.4% of our GDP, FY2005’s deficit was 2.6% of our GDP. My estimate for FY2006 is it will come in around 2.1% of GDP. FY2007 will be better because Congress is starting to be shamed into a conservative alignment.

Corporate Tax Cuts: Corporate income tax revenues in FY2003 were 131 Billion, in FY2005 they were 278 Billion. At the height of President Clinton’s vaunted economy corporate income tax revenue were 185 Billion (FY1999). Thus, Bush’s corporate cronies are paying much more now than they did under Clinton. My guess is that we will see a corporate income tax revenue stream of about 350 Billion in FY2006.

Outsourcing Jobs: Uuuummmm, Lefties and Buchananites, ever hear about the baby boom. You folks still spend money like drunken sailors. There are fewer people in the US providing goods and services for them. Face up to the fact that you will have to accept immigration or accept outsourcing to satisfy your purchasing pattern. Understand another thing Boomers: Do you think the GenXers will pay for your retirement when you did not save for it. You reared a tough brood. Remember we were the latch key children that used to shoot each other in the classroom. More seriously, look at the comments from the SNCOs and mid-level officers in our military - they are willing to accept casualties for mission achievement.

Where shall Doom fall next...

Enjoy and invest!!!