Wednesday, June 22, 2005

The China Syndrome

Re(1): 'China Draws a Line in the Sand...', Tigerhawk, Tigerhawk
Re(2): 'Three Conjectures', The Belmont Club, TC Wretchard

A blog I have seen referenced, but never reviewed, had an interesting post on the Foreign Minister of China stating:
"China will never permit the Islamic Republic of Iran to gain access to nuclear weapons"

"Though China does have certain relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran, it will never agree to permit such a regime to equipped with nuclear weapons."

Tigerhawk effectively asks the question of why it would be in China's interest to strongly make such a declaration. Wouldn't it be in China's interest to poke the US and Russia in the eye. Isn't directly challenging your most important source of oil economically dangerous to say the least.

I think part of the answer can be found in

1. Wrechard's 'Three Conjectures'. and
2. Barnett's 'The Pentagons New Map' and
3. ‘The Clash of Civilizations’

Basically, for all its faults China lives within the civilized core of nations. One can deal with them in reciprocity. Like the Soviet Union, Trust But Verify. Deterrence functions. There is recognized leadership. Measured response can be made.

Once stateless Islamofascist use, or attempt to use, WMD the game is up and the starting gun is fired. There is no point in measured escalation. There is no command element, there is no deterrent effect, the movement is not limited to any state, and there is no confidence in any agreements.

I postulate that if an Islamofascist terrorist group, let’s say al Qaeda, nukes Paris the retribution will not be limited to coming from France, Europe, and/or even America. Even if the west proves soft and pliable, it is at least somewhat likely that China and Russia will become involved to the extreme. Actually, more than likely.

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