Sunday, August 14, 2005

The Coming War with the Iraqi Caliphate...

The title is a play on Friedman and Lebard's 'The Coming War with Japan' which emphasized the almost certainty of a war with Japan in America's future.

How a Caliphate could form:

I think there is some agreement that a caliphate cannot form unless there is charismatic leadership in a stable capital with a devoted and militarily adequate following.

Here is how that could form – an odd concept.

Let us postulate that:
New forms of energy management result in a decline in oil exports from the Middle East
However, those exports are concentrated to a stable nation or region

Saudi Arabia is in chaos as a result of a weakened monarchy
Iran becomes a pariah state as a result of WMD ambitions
Syria breaks down into factions and chaos
Iraq revives politically and economically and militarily

Iraq controls much of the oil exports, much of the regional wealth, and much of the cultural heritage of the ‘caliphate’.

Odd in that it would be the success of current western ambitions that might lead to a strong, centralized Islam.

Good, bad, indifferent. Would a vibrant Iraq be an aggressive Iraq? Could America challenge its progeny?

1 comment:

Marcus Aurelius said...

You have a beautiful blog roll.

You need to get it balanced though, it is nice on top but then off kilter on the bottom half.


First, America could challenge an Iraqi progeny. Will it? That is always the question, unfortunately we will probably have to wait until fair trade coffee shops have to separate their seating into bachelor and family sections.

However, I get this notion of a liberalized Iraq (even if they don't welcome the V-Monologues they will be more liberal) is less of a danger than a Saudi Arabi with a weakened monarchy. As much as we are suspicious of the Saudi Monarchy they know they can not let things get out of control, if they become weakened then out of control it becomes. Always remember, Saudia Arabia has the two holy mosques.

It is Saudi ideology driving the conflict with the West. The further one gets from Saudi the less strong that ideology becomes and Iraq has always had this reputation for being more cosmopolitan than the rest of the Arab world (with perhaps the exception of Dubai and Lebanon prior to their civil war).