The Conservative Saeculum - Avoiding Flameout

re(1): 'The Conservative Saeculum', Roger Bogh, BoghieOnYourSix
re(2): 'The Conservative Saeculum - Future Flameout', Roger Bogh, BoghieOnYourSix

Uuuuuummmmm, yeah :-(

I included the nomination of John Bolton in my list pointing toward a Conservative saeculum (a long life trend crossing generations). That turned out to be more problematic than expected - due to the admitted ignorance of Senator Voinavich.

I did not include floor votes on President Bush's nominees. Just look at this herd of cats:

• McCain
• Chaffee
• Collins
• Snowe

And some odd ones:

• Warner
• Graham
• DeWine

I have no confidence that the top list of grandees will ever lean center right or vote with the Party on Party votes. To them, President Bush has a responsibility to meet individually, discuss all 220 nominations, and come to a consensus that satisfies 101 individuals – or at least themselves. The bottom list is just Senators being cranky. You can count on at least three wobblies on any vote.

As the centrist Chris Matthews opines: 'Again, the Maveric Wins...' (McCain)
As the centrist Chris Matthews opines: 'The Master of the Compromise...' (McCain)

John McCain predicts fewer filibusters. Gee, what a deal. And the institution of the Senate won. He unknowingly kills any future for Frist.

Yea, Susan Collins is very happy. She can get back to doing the business of the country. Like getting some milk subsidy through... Extrodinary Circumstances is a very high bar - yup, but they crossed it before. Anybody tell you that a path taken is a path known. Susan, did anyone inform you that the business of the country might, just might, be to figure out how to deal with judicial nominations? Did your short term 'solution' resolve the 20 year problem?

Lincoln, this is not yours fathers Senate. I hope you do not mind me donating to anyone who runs against you. I'll make a compromise: I will not send money to any terrorist on the watch list that may run against you. Anyone else gets my cash. I think the stress of high office is affecting the time spent with your family. You will thank me later.

Golly, I’m sure glad the seven illuminati listed above got together with Robert Byrd to get the business of the country going again. Couldn't wait...

By The Way Northeast. Bye Bye... We don't need your trash in the Senate or House.

UPDATE: Does anybody else feel like McCain just attempted a coup in the Senate? If the center holds than he is the power broker. There is no hammer in the Senate leadership.

UPDATE: If the center holds, we will replace conservative Supreme Court justices with milquetoast Supreme Court justices. Not a good thing. How silly will it look to create an unwritten aggreement to replace justices purely via ideology.

Media: Corroborate or Collaborate

Now that the media slime have dredged up three year old stories (about human turds that are being prosecuted no less) I think a ribald cheer should go out to tell the media to be responsible:

Corroborate or Collaborate

Media slugs, validate and justify your trash or accept that you are collaborating with the enemy. Your unthinking, reactionary antics do not make you 'unpatriotic', rather they are informing your customer base that you are either stupid or painfully biased.

NEWSWEEK!!!

While everyone is ranting about the report, the reporter, and the editors – rightfully so – I want the source outed…

Why?

I no longer trust the media

I will never trusted anonymous sources.

I want to know if the trusted source is an operative.

I want to know what an unimpeachable source means to the MSM.

I am tired of major media using unnamed sources as their only backing for articles.


If the trusted, anonymous, qualified, senior source turns out to be some ignorant, ideological, brain dead, junior operative - or vaunted senior Senator from somewhere - I think I have the right to know. NOW. Since I cannot trust the media to vet their sources and their stories, I must be able to do it.

The Ultimate Desecration of the Quran

Re(1); 'Iraqi leader's Koran 'written in blood'', BBC News Online

Saddam had a Quran written in his own blood…

"My life has been full of dangers in which I should have lost a lot of
blood...but since I have bled only a little, I asked somebody to write God's
words with my blood in gratitude," President Saddam Hussein said in a letter
published in the official media.

Hhhhhmmmm

Hhhhhhhhhhhhhmmmm…

Iraq Civilian Casualties of War...

Civilian Casualties in Iraq

Re(1): ‘Iraq’s Dead Counted’, Tim Blair, www.TimBlair.net
Re(2): ‘Iraq Living Conditions Survey 2004’, UN Report
Re(3): ‘Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: cluster sample survey’, The Lancet, Les Roberts, Riyadh Lafta, Richard Garfield, Jamal Khudhairi, Gilbert Burnham
Re(4): http://www.iraqbodycount.net/

Please Review and make your own decision (hat tip: Tim Blair):

Lancet Study Findings Summary:

Findings: The risk of death was estimated to be 2·5-fold (95% CI 1·6–4·2) higher after the invasion when compared with the preinvasion period. Two-thirds of all violent deaths were reported in one cluster in the city of Falluja. If we exclude the Falluja data, the risk of death is 1·5-fold (1·1–2·3) higher after the invasion. We estimate that 98 000 more deaths than expected (8000–194 000) happened after the invasion outside of Falluja and far more if the outlier Falluja cluster is included. The major causes of death before the invasion were myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular accidents, and other chronic disorders whereas after the invasion violence was the primary cause of death. Violent deaths were widespread, reported in 15 of 33 clusters, and were mainly attributed to coalition forces. Most individuals reportedly killed by coalition forces were women and children. The risk of death from violence in the period after the invasion was 58 times higher (95% CI 8·1–419) than in the period before the war.

Interpretation: Making conservative assumptions, we think that about 100 000 excess deaths or more have happened since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Violence accounted for most of the excess deaths and air strikes from coalition forces accounted for most violent deaths. We have shown that collection of public-health information is possible even during periods of extreme violence. Our results need further verification and should lead to changes to reduce noncombatant deaths from air strikes.

Iraq Living Conditions Survey 2004, War-related deaths – between 18,000 and 29,000
The number of deaths of civilians and military personnel in Iraq in the aftermath of the 2003 invasion is another set of figures that have raised controversy. The ILCS data indicates 24,000 deaths, with a 95 percent confidence interval from 18,000 to 29,000 deaths. The confidence interval was estimated using a linearisation technique (using SPSS Complex Samples, version 12).


IraqBodyCount
The website “Iraq Body Count” (http://www.iraqbodycount.net/) estimates that between 14,619 and 16,804 deaths have occurred between the beginning of 2003 and 7 December 2004 (IBC 2004).

Science Sucks:
For those of you who wasted lots of ink defending the Lancet Study in Matthew Yglesias’ and other left and left of center sites – Who do you want to believe?

1. The Lancet Study which estimates a civilian casualty rate in Iraq of between 8,000 and 194,000 with a 95% certainty. Naturally, you assumed the bell curve would demonstrate that the most likely estimate was about 98,000.
   
2. The UN study which estimates a civilian casualty rate in Iraq of between 18,000 and 29,000 with the same 95% certainty. The UN estimate implies a most likely estimate of 24,000 civilian casualties.
   
3. The IraqBodyCount website which documents a casualty rate in Iraq of between 14,619 and 16,804 deaths for the same approximate timeline.

Please note, both the UN and IraqBodyCount casualty count estimates fit within the Lancet Study with a 95% certainty. Yuk, yuk…

By The Way, Saddam Hussein’s finely oiled murder machine would have killed about 30,000 civilians within the same approximate timeline. And that killing would never have ceased or been reduced. And that killing was sanctioned by the state and implicitly accepted by the isolationists, the burlap sack and Birkenstock crowd, and the real politic elites.

By now an additional 70,000 folks would have been euthanized and carefully placed in ditches and under mosque sidewalks for a proper Islamic burial!!!

Maybe, after the honorable French, Germans, and Russians removed the sanctions that were killing all the children in Iraq, Saddam Hussein would have used his enormous oil wealth for the benefit of mankind. Or maybe he would have reconstituted his other petrochemical and nuclear programs…

Base Realignment...

Re(1): BRAC 2005 Closure and Realignment Impacts by State

While everyone is looking at the Congressional and Senatorial winners and losers, I think a more comprehensive review illustrates some other (and potentially more) important patterns:

132 Reserve Centers are CLOSED

• 3,650 jobs were lost in closed (132) Reserve Centers
• 1,327 jobs were lost in realigned (9) Reserve Centers
• 676 jobs were created in gained (9) Reserve Centers

So the DOD Reserve Force lost 4,301 jobs of the 14,684 total lost positions (30%).

Question: How confident is the DOD and the administration in our Reserve Force?

My guess is that we will see a comparable increase in the active duty force structure.

Scud Alert:
And yes, I do have a problem with folks being recruited directly into the reserves. The Army is the biggest culprit in recruiting folks who want to join the job corps and go on camping trips every other month or so – and don’t forget the extra pay check. Surprise, Army recruiting is being clobbered – the campers want the paycheck, but not the work. Now the Army wants to recruit folks for 15 month stints – probably as direct recruit reserves. This is not a good idea.

Hey Army, smell the roses!!!
Shoomaker
Pace
Force Reductions

Tomorrows Brilliant Err America Analysis of the speech...

Just a preview...

Let us carefully look at the following quote from President Bush's long speech about appeasement, the march of freedom, and why we fight:

Successful democracies will be defined by a broader ideal of citizenship -- based on shared principles, shared responsibilities, and respect for all. For my own country, the process of becoming a mature, multi-ethnic democracy was lengthy and violent. Our journey from national independence to equal injustice [sic] included the enslavement of millions, and a four-year civil war. Even after slavery ended, a century passed before an oppressed minority was guaranteed equal rights.

For you libs and Err America listeners: sic means a typographical or verbal error that might be construed as ignorance of/or in contradiction to the context. If you harp on the use of 'injustice' when the context definitely implies the word 'justice' than you will further erode your already miniscule credibility. Err America listeners: You can start the long recovery from your adiction by reading and/or listening to the speech - and speak highly of it!!!

Pulling My Backhanded Slap...

re(1): 'President Discusses Freedom and Democracy in Latvia', G.W. Bush, President of the United States.

Part of my previous two posts were kindof a backhanded slap on what the President stated in his speech. I should have followed my own advice and not taken the MSM as knowledgeable on anything. Do these morons really require college degrees in something other than makeup and hairstyling? 'Never Again' I say again... Here is part of the speech:

As we mark a victory of six days ago -- six decades ago, we are mindful of a paradox. For much of Germany, defeat led to freedom. For much of Eastern and Central Europe, victory brought the iron rule of another empire. V-E Day marked the end of fascism, but it did not end oppression. The agreement at Yalta followed in the unjust tradition of Munich and the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. Once again, when powerful governments negotiated, the freedom of small nations was somehow expendable. Yet this attempt to sacrifice freedom for the sake of stability left a continent divided and unstable. The captivity of millions in Central and Eastern Europe will be remembered as one of the greatest wrongs of history.

Umm, folks, we have a good one here. A very good one.

It does seem that he has read a bit in his 50+ years. Especially since becoming President.

And Paleocons and Leftist (War for Oil, WMD, other stupid comments):

For all the problems that remain, it is a miracle of history that this young century finds us speaking about the consolidation of freedom throughout Europe. And the stunning democratic gains of the last several decades are only the beginning. freedom is not tired. The ideal of human dignity is not weary. And the next stage of the world democratic movement is already unfolding in the broader Middle East.

We seek democracy in that region for the same reasons we spent decades working for democracy in Europe -- because freedom is the only reliable path to peace. If the Middle East continues to simmer in anger and resentment and hopelessness, caught in a cycle of repression and radicalism, it will produce terrorism of even greater audacity and destructive power. But if the peoples of that region gain the right of self-government, and find hopes to replace their hatreds, then the security of all free nations will be strengthened. We will not repeat the mistakes of other generations, appeasing or excusing tyranny, and sacrificing freedom in the vain pursuit of stability. We have learned our lesson; no one's liberty is expendable. In the long run, our security and true stability depend on the freedom of others. And so, with confidence and resolve, we will stand for freedom across the broader Middle East.

I guess you will just have to accept that this President just does not seem to understand real politic. The Stupid rube!!!

President Bush's Yalta Statement (Part II)

re(1): 'Yalta', Wretchard, The Belmont Club

By the way, would Britain and the United States have been forced to ally with the Soviet Union if they had denied Nazi Germany, Tojo Japan, and Fascist Italy their opportunities in the mid 1930s?

If we (the democratic countries) had formed a coalition of the willing against the above while those miscreants were forming would there have been a WWII? Would there have been a WWIII (Cold War)?

Bush is reminding the democratic nations that there are consequences to being meek and weak. I don’t think he is taking a slam at FDR. FDR did what he could in a nation gripped in the clutches of isolationism and the creeping cloud of socialism. He is reminding us that marching around in burlap sacks and Birkenstocks is not a viable counter to aggression.

President Bush's Yalta Statement

re(1): 'Yalta', Wretchard, The Belmont Club

The agreements made at, and the results of, the Yalta Conference were pre-ordained by the actions taken by the western powers in the five to ten years prior to World War II (and by that I mean 1939). The parents and great grand parents of the knuckle heads that are marching, whining, and interfering in our current conflict against expansionistic aggression were busy marching, whining, interfering, and electing opposition to leadership against the previous expansionistic totalitarian movements. These stupid children, parents, and grand parents praise the very efforts (appeasement in the face of aggression) that result in the world wide conflagration of total war.

Those who cannot see the factual evil in totalitarian Stalinism and Fascist Germany, Italy, and Japan still cannot see it in Hussein, Khomeini, Assad, Wahabi Islam, North Korea, and a revitalized totalitarian China and a re-Stalinizing Russia.

Do these idiots (useful or otherwise) always have to wait until their simplistic world view leads to the death of millions? Do we have to wait until nuclear winter is the only answer to world wide terror?

Maybe there is another country like Czechoslovakia that we can give up for a few more years of ‘peace’. I think we can still hold that conference in Munich. Springtime is beautiful there.

This is a slap at Russia, but it is also a punch at the Paleocons and Leftists in our fat, dumb, and happy western cultures. Their forebears elected the stalwarts of appeasement – Chamberlain, and the chumps who ran France in the years leading to WWII. Now they attempt to elect right wing isolationist (who view the GWOT purely on boarder management) and lefty peaceniks (who view the GWOT purely as American aggression) into our Congresses, Senates, and Executive Branches.

The leadership of Bush, Blair, Howard, Berlesconi, Anznar, and that of the just freed Warsaw Pact countries may preclude a near term catastrophic total war.

Never Forget…

Never forget that cowardice in the face of evil is not a virtue.

September 1, 1939 – December 7, 1941

As the isolationist left and right marched, whined, and squabbled for over two years millions died. A few questions to the Paleocons and the Lefties in America past and present:

1. Are you proud your forefathers watched and whined about the march of evil for over two years prior to World War II?
2. Are you proud that we were forced to ally with the Soviet Union to destroy Germany?
3. Are you proud that our decade of inaction forced the complete destruction of nations?
4. Are you proud that we were forced to end the war with atomic weapons?
5. Are you even cognizant that a measured demonstration of backbone during the remilitarization of the Rhineland and the incursions into China, while thousands would have been killed, might have alleviated the suffering of hundreds of millions?
6. And are your WWII era leaders anything more than a regrettable footnotes in dusty Lefty Political Science studies?

Now, why are you marching, whining, and squabbling when we are trying to stop the onslaught of Islamofascism before it required total war?

Thank you President Bush and those derisively called Neocons for trying to lead the ignorant…