Re(2): 'California Monthly Finance Bulletins', California Department of Finance
Re(3): 'US Treasury, Monthly Treasury Statements', US Treasury
Re(4): 'Budget Deficit Estimation...', BoghieOnYourSix, Me
That was the sound of California’s April 2006 tax receipts coming in 40% over expectations… No word on the Federal Tax Receipts… But, how has that ever stopped me from 'Projecting the Future'!!!
The San Diego Union just reported that April tax receipts in California exceeded expected revenue by $3.5 Billion. That exceeds expectation by over 40%. So that means I get to guess at what that means for the Federal Budget:
Some patterns of note:
- We have Repuclican Congresscritters looking like kiddies caught with their hands in the cookie jar - even fiscally conservative Repuclicans.
- I can't remember to many silly Libs talking about the deficit the last couple of weeks.
- The last noise heard on this topic came from the MediaCrats. They whined that spending was up $15 Billion from last March - and half of that was because Social Security payments for April had to be posted in March this year. Where was the Democratic crying then.
Libs, remember my projection for a $290 Billion annual deficit...
I am assuming that past patterns repeat themselves. Thus the national economy – which is better than California’s – will follow suit. California tax revenues range from about 3.55% to about 5.58% of Federal Revenues. Although difficult to determine, it appears that California’s revenue stream for April will be around $16.3 Billion – up from $12.8 Billion last year.
Best case scenario:
Federal Tax Revenue = $16.3 Billion / 0.0355 = $459 Billion
Most Likely scenarios:
Federal Tax Revenue = $16.3 Billion / 0.0402 = $405 Billion
Federal Tax Revenue = $16.3 Billion / 0.0419 = $389 Billion
Worst case scenario:
Federal Tax Revenue = $16.3 Billion / 0.0558 = $292 Billion
Last year’s April Federal Tax Revenue: $277 Billion
Last year’s April Surplus: $57.711 Billion
Spending is growing by about 8.7% so April expenditures should be about $240 Billion
So, April’s budget SURPLUS will be between $52 Billion and $219 Billion - with a best estimate of between $149 Billion and $165 Billion.
What are you going to talk about now…
Global Health Care…