The Deterrent Never Discussed…

There has been much bloviation regarding WMD and how Valerie Plame single-handedly destroyed the Iraqi WMD capability during Clinton’s era of ‘Peace and Prosperity’.

However, one lesson that was loud and clear to terrorist regimes has been lost in the shuffle. Namely, that American and coalition forces did invade a state that was known to have indigenously built and used WMD of various and lethal forms.

One result of that salient fact occurred when the valiant Moammar Khadafi, the el Presidente of Libya, unilaterally declared his WMD program following said invasion. A program as of yet unknown to the UN WMD sleuths – a couple of years before another unknown unknowable became known with regards to Iran.

Now, with the Libs railing that BusHitler knew there was no WMD prior to invasion; but instead instigated a very complex ruse based on Jewish CIA suicide operatives crashing planes (or shooting missiles if you are really serious about this) into really big and important buildings in an effort to make a grab for Middle-East oil.

Get it…

Libs, you may have blown the only deterrent available…

You see, America didn’t really invade a nation in the teeth of WMD…

They must still be the weak horse. They value life more than we value death.

Will the next WMD armed thug be deterred by our actions…

These folks (Ahmadinejad, Jong-Il, and Assad) are rather stupid, rather barbaric, and rather brazen.

So, the answer is – as I think is being made clearer by the day – Nope…

Bush and Rumsfeld let Osama Go!!!

How many times must one hear this ignorant rant:

Bush should have sent 50,000 paratroops into Afghanistan to deal with al-Qaeda and the Taliban and not count on indigenous support.

Constantly ranting ‘Bush letting Osama go’ in Tora Bora.
Wailing about this, crying about that.
It never ends.

So, let us start with a map:

Q1: Are you going to parachute your 50,000 airborne infantry into one area or spread them around. If you are going to spread them around how was that going to help in the capture and trial of bin Laden? If brilliantly dropping in on one spot, which spot? Why? If Tora Bora is your landing zone why wouldn’t al-Qaeda just traipse west into Iran or north into Turkmenistan or east into Pakistan? When al-Qaeda defines their movements are you simply going to airdrop more thousands to attack them in transition – into other countries.

Q2: Do you actually think we had 50,000 paratroops immediately available with the capability to airlift them promptly into Afghanistan? What kind of weapons do you think paratroops carry? Remember, we had President Clinton’s ‘Peace Dividend’ to spend! Are you really talking about changing the American military force structure before we were to strike al-Qaeda and the Taliban (like Shinkeki's 400,000 comment implied)? How many years did you want to expend in the effort to build that capability – and therefore, how long were you going to permit al-Qaeda to run free?

Q3: Assuming we have those 50,000 paratroops to spare (and I don’t think we had 50,000 jump qualified personnel in 2001 – period), can generate the necessary airlift capability, and figure out exactly where to drop them – how do you supply these guys?

The answers to the first two questions by these Armchair Generals imply that, at best, they can assume the nickname “General Maintenance”. The type of leaders and military strategists that ensure the base is clean and painted and the grass is cut – but can’t lead or implement change worth a damn. However, these bloviations are only hints of foolishness.

The proof is in the answer to Question 3. Supply and support of large military expeditions separate General Maintenance from General Patton. How do you supply a land locked nation like Afghanistan through the air? Whose airspace do you use? Do you have any idea of the material requirements for a force that large? How permanent were those ‘good will’ agreements you site so often (ah, the old ‘we blew all that post 9/11 goodwill’ argument) with nations such as Iran, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan?

If you contend we could have airdropped tens of thousands of paratroopers onto the precise spot to fix and destroy al-Qaeda and the Taliban without a buy-in from the indigenous peoples then you are a fool…

And, a fool is forever…

Keep Your Eyes on the Prize…

Re(1): ‘F-16 Fighting Falcon’, FAS Military Analysis Network
Re(2): ‘Extending the F-16 range’, Defense Update
Re(3): ‘Iran Special Weapons Facilities’, GlobalSecurity.org
Re(4): 'CIA Factbook - The Middle East Map', CIA Factbook

Israel may strike Syria with ground forces - and hold ground.

Why?

The Osirak reactor was about 1,200 km from Israel..

That, in 1981, was the absolute outer limit of the bombing range of an F-16. There have been numerous improvements to the range and lethality of the F-16. This includes an extension to the combat range of the current variant – as described by ‘Extending the F-16 range’ in Defense Update. Per this article, Israel purchased these enhancements on or before 2004.

Now let us fast forward to Summer 2006…

Iran is sponsoring terror at Israel’s southern border

Syria is sponsoring terror at Israel’s northern border

Iran is ranting about obliterating Israel from the face of the earth.

But, Iraq – and thus American airspace – lies between Israel and Iran. It is very problematic to expect American armed forces to permit an Israeli air strike through their airspace – such permission would more than imply a coordinated effort. Would America accede to that? Personally, I think not.

Thus, the Iranian WMD sites are most likely beyond Israeli F-16 range as currently deployed. Even with American cooperation - which is problematic.

Let us assume that Israel has a few options to deal with Hezbollah and Hamas. Why chose an option that includes a significant ground campaign and an attack on an ‘innocent’ nation – ie. Syria.

Why…

One reason becomes clear when you look at a map.



Because the eastern portion of Syria is within F-16 combat range of the vast majority of Iranian WMD facilities and missile launch sites.

Thus, feint to Lebanon, strike Damascus, set up a combat airfield on that eastern appendage, and fly through an unpopulated portion of Turkish airspace to hit Iran's WMD development and deployment sites.

A New Favorite - Goldstein Fried Frisch

Re(1): 'Protein Wisdom', Jeff Goldstein
Re(2): 'Althouse.... The Stupidity Rays... Are Overwhelming...', Brad DeLong
Re(3): 'Excremental Sighting at University of Arizona', Me

Got a bit caught up in a dust up or two this week.

1. I have a new Frisch Face on my BlogRoll... Yuk, yuk... I have spent more time on Jeff Goldstein's Protein Wisdom since the Learned Professor jumped his child and wife. Tell me you don't smile when reading:

Watership Up?

From the August/September Reason (print edition):

Doctors at the Institute for Regenerative Medicine at Wake Forest University report success in regrowing healthy cells for diseased rabbit penises.

Researchers say the process could pave the way for treating impotence in human beings.—Which, while swell news for impotent males, is nevertheless a bummer for the French, who have long considered diseased rabbit penises something of a delicacy.

Or am I’m thinking of snails? Or the Koreans?

update: IS THERE A MULTICULTURALIST IN THE HOUSE?

I'm telling you, that is a funny post...

And, this is almost as telling as Dan Rather waiving the magic National Guard Papers:

Uh, wow.

And people wonder why some of us mistrust the traditional media.

I left my response in the comments at the TC site.

It’s my own fault, really. In fact, my grandmother always used to say, “never trust a female Tuscon Citizen reporter with a hyphenated last name; she’ll screw you like she was putting together shelving”—but did I listen?

No. No I did not.

Apologies, Grams. Your wisdom knows no bounds.

So, to Frischen things up a bit, I hereby and there-to-fore add Goldstein's Protein Wisdom to my blog roll.


2. Regretfully, I can't take Bradly DeLong's semi-coherent lefty rant site - did you know he was President Clinton's Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury - off my blog roll because he never was on it. I enjoyed schooling his little ones in the comments section of 'Althouse.... The Stupidity Rays... Are Overwhelming...'. It was sad when he excommunicated me and deleted all my posts. If Brad actually reads this I would like to challenge him to post those comments and have others determine whether or not I am a troll. Hey, Brad, keep it in context though...


3. I called Deborah Frisch a turd on her site. I think I'll stick with that... Concise... Clear... To the point... Clarity over Agreement!

And, now banned :-{

Re(1): 'Brad DeLong', Wikipedia
Re(1): 'Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal', Brad DeLong
Re(2): 'Althouse.... The Stupidity Rays... Are Overwhelming...', Brad DeLong

Brad DeLong, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury under President Clinton, banned me from his site. He worked for Secretary of the Treasury Robert Rubin - a person who I have deep respect for...

I got banned for commenting at the 'Althouse.... The Stupidity Rays... Are Overwhelming...' post. You can see my name burning in effigy throughout the comments.

I have asked Mr. DeLong to email me my comments stream. None of them were factually defeated by the commenters.

But I was told I was a troll - one who developed and wrote large, content driven, and primary sourced posts...

Here is a favorite response (part of a comment of mine italicized):

Boghie:

"What does this stat really mean? It means that to get ahead you have to take a
supervisory position. Your experience and skillset should progress to the point
that you should be able to attain a supervisory position."

When we're all--all 100% of us---suitably ensconced in supervisory positions, who will be the 'worker bees' whom we shall supervise?

Are you suggesting the reintroduction of slavery? Feudalism?

You are, aren't you? Not that we'd call it by those nasty names, naturally.

This is how you see the immigration problem, I presume. As a source of slaves and vassals.

How wonderfully fucking enlightened of you. Some of your rightwing buddies want to gas them, or at least shoot them on the barbed wire fence.

My comment dealt with a fact extrapolated from the starting and ending average wage for each President since LBJ - inflation adjusted to 2005 dollars. I would like to thank JLR for that information. Since Brad seems to be a happy hacker, here is the info:

Stunster-

The Bureau of Labor Statistics average hourly earning page does make for interesting reading. Just for fun I converted the average hourly earnings of all the available years for all private nonsupervisory positoins to 2005 dollars. Here are the numbers for the starting year and ending year of the presidents from 1964 on:

President(years) start/end (2005 dollars)

LBJ (1964/1968): 15.94/16.94
Nixon (1968/1974): 16.94/17.54
Ford (1974/1976): 17.54/17.36
Carter (1976/1980): 17.36/16.21
Reagan (1980/1988): 16.21/15.56
Bush I (1988/1992): 15.56/14.96
Clinton (1992/2000): 14.96/15.82
Bush II (2000/2005): 15.82/16.11

Here is an ordered list of these presidents with their fractional change per year of office

LBJ +1.6%
Clinton +0.72%
Nixon +0.59%
Bush II +0.37%
Reagan -0.50%
Ford -0.51%
Bush I -0.96%
Carter -1.66%

Not very scientific, but interesting to look at.
-JLR

Using JLR's inflation adjusted information I found that the average wage earners made (take home pay only reflects Federal taxes, not Social Security, Medicare, and State Tax):

Clinton:

Gross Income: $31,640
Taxable Income: 31,640 - 7,500 (Standard Deduction) = $24,140
Income Tax: $3,621
Annual Take Home: $28,019
Monthly Take Home: $2,335
Hourly Take Home: $14.01 off a gross salary of $15.82 per hour

Bush:

Gross Income: $32,220
Taxable Income: 31,640 - 10,000 (Standard Deduction) = $22,220
Income Tax: $2,578
Annual Take Home: $29,642
Monthly Take Home: $2,470
Hourly Take Home: $14.82 off a gross salary of $16.11 per hour

I simply asked this Stunster dude and his friend Anne (is that the PoliPundit troll of old) if they would rather have $29,642 take home pay or $28,019. It was an easy question. No tricks. I guess Brad did not like the fact that Bush gave this chap in the lowest income tax bracket an $0.81 per hour pay raise.

A hidden one, no doubt. And, one the President doesn't brag enough about.

But a pay raise no politico or company can take from him/her.

Love and Kisses Brad - kinda sad that the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury did not stoop low enough to contest these and other facts. I could have flaws in my computations, thinking, or general algorithm. A nice factual return by you or a top commenter would have been appreciated. That is something I get routinely at The Belmont Club and SecurityWatchTower. That is the least I could expect from a fine SESer such as yourself.

Enjoy the 'Fair, Balanced, and Reality-Based' community you created over there!!!

NYT Surprised by 2nd Annual Jump In Revenues since Tax Cuts...

Re(1): 'Surprising Jump in Tax Revenues Is Curbing Deficit', NYT, Edmund J. Andrews
Re(2): 'Budget Deficit Estimation...', BoghieOnYourSix, Me
Re(3): 'Response to 'Liberal and Loving It' - Ranking the American Presidents', Me
Re(4): 'Fiscal Flameout???', BoghieOnYourSix, Me
Re(5): 'Bush's Promise - To cut the deficit in half by FY2009', BoghieOnYourSix, Me
Re(6): 'Pull This Finger, Will You', BoghieOnYourSix, Me
Re(7): 'Eeyore Covers the Budget', PowerLineBlog, John Hinderaker

UPDATE: Brad DeLong removes a comment by me from his Blog
Re(8): 'Althouse.... The Stupidity Rays... Are Overwhelming...', Brad DeLong

Nice Try NYT!!!

You get a Smiley Face

So evil corporate income tax has almost tripled during the Bush Economic Blight, and individual income tax revenue has grown substantially. And, the deficit is shrinking rather dramatically in this era of war and corruption. That is something you have to admit – but great grudge work and slight of hand.

So your fine article deserves a Fisking!!!

Here is the Gist of your Argument – as mouthpiece for the Loony Left:

Democrats and many independent budget analysts note that overall revenues have barely climbed back to the levels reached in 2000, and that the government has borrowed trillions of dollars against Social Security surpluses just as the first of the nation's baby boomers are nearing retirement.

For most of the article the NYT uses numbers from FY2001 (the last Clinton budget – a point never made), but here they choose to use FY2000 numbers. Why??? Because in the context of later discussions the NYT denigrates the revenue increase as being the result of rich people selling stocks and bonds – that is, investment taxes. Thus, doom is around the corner.

But, hey look at this hand will you… Not that hand stupid… Over here we are talking about the last Great Man’s personal income tax revenues coming in at a mite over 1 Trillion dollars. And while we are talking about a huge increase in FY2006 revenues we shall pull the FY2005 revenues out of the hat over here. See, that Monkey of a President only yanked $927 Billion out of your wallet. Quiet about the earlier comment we had to make about the growth in all forms of revenue since last year… Stop looking at the Monkey bringing in over $1 Trillion this year – it must be a clerical mistake.

When will you audiences suspend disbelief and just watch the show. We had to tell you about evil corporations paying three times as much tax than they did in FY2001. Look at FY2000 where they were forced to redistribute $207 Billion. Shut up about projections of Halliburton et al greasing the skids to the tune of $350 Billion for FY2006. Look at this hand, please…

Over here, President BusHitler hasn’t even come to Clinton’s second to final numbers. This chump only brought in $927 Billion last year in individual income taxes and an obvious one-off of $278 Billion from Halliburton’s war profiteering.

Let us continue:

"The fact is that revenues are way below what the administration said they would be a few years ago," said Thomas S. Kahn, staff director for Democrats on the House Budget Committee. "The long-term prognosis is still very, very bleak, and the administration doesn't have any kind of long-term plan."

One reason the run-up in taxes looks good is because the past five years looked so bad. Revenues are up, but they have lagged well behind economic growth.

The surge could also evaporate as quickly as it appeared. Over the past decade, tax
revenues have become much more volatile, alternately soaring and plunging in the
wake of swings in the stock market and repeatedly defying government projections.

Mr. Kahn et al, please take in this set of numbers (and we even forget about the subsequent damage caused by 9/11 and Katrina – I can’t figure out why the numbers looked so bad after 9/11 and pre-2003 tax changes):

FY2001 (President Clinton’s last budget, in billions)

GDP: 10,128

Individual Income Tax: 994
Corporate Income Tax: 151
Total Revenues: 1,990
DOD Expenditures: 290
Social Security Expenditures: 489
Deficit: +127 (surplus)

FY2006 estimate (current budget, in billions)

GDP: 13,100
Individual Income Tax: 1,027
Corporate Income Tax: 352
Total Revenues: 2,375
DOD Expenditures: 512
Social Security Expenditures: 603
Deficit: -280(deficit)

Note the growth in GDP, Individual Income Tax, Corporate Income Tax, DOD expenditures, and Social Security expenditures.

Here is something to think about. Let us balance the budget! First, index Social Security Benefits to inflation rather than wages and bring them to balance with receipts and investment growth. Then cut our Defense budget in half. That will fix it. What, you will not talk about Social Security and you cannot politically cut the DOD budget. Then what are you going to do? Don’t know.

My guess is that President Bush figures 9/11 and Katrina are rare events. So, President Bush is figuring that if the economy grows at the steady and sustainable rate his administration is promoting - while spending is being brought steadily and sustainably under control - than the deficit will shrink. Not a bad idea – where is yours?

But, remember one must look at my right hand when I gesture with it – don’t look at my left hand. My right hand is showing increasing government spending while my left hand illustrates a shrinking deficit – both in real terms and as a ratio. I can’t see the pattern. I am lost. I am thinking like Bill Keller and the rest of the word smiths and Congressional Intelligencia – that is, I ain’t got no idea what numbers and trends mean.

So, for the John Kerry’s of the world here is a nice little chart:

Fiscal Year	GDP	Tax Revenue	Deficit	% of GDP	% of Tax Revenue
FY2004	11,743	1,798	412	3.51%	22.91%
FY2005	12,479	2,053	318	2.55%	15.49%
FY2006	13,400	2,285	286	2.13%	12.52%

That chart implies that economic and revenue growth is expanding faster that even drunken Republicans can spend it. And, let us not forget Senator Landrieu’s demand for more Katrina relief – remember she wanted $200 Billion more than she got. So where would we be if the other drunks were in power?

I guess this about sums up the MediaCrat opinion:

Tax receipts amounted to about 17.5 percent of the nation's gross domestic product in 2005, far below the level five years ago and still slightly below the average of 18 percent since World War II. Spending, by contrast, is running at about 20 percent of gross domestic product .

The recent average for tax receipts is 18 percent – so 17.5 percent is a significant cut to the NYT (please refer to NYT stock price). And, what about Clinton’s sustainable DotCom boom ratio of 20.6 percent. That is certainly sustainable – especially when it is almost 3 percent over norm and there are no wars, no massive natural disasters, and no recession.

And we will be at war forever, and have cities wiped off the map every year, and economic doom is just around the corner.

Makes sense to me!!!

But, then again, we might draw down our troops in Iraq, the weather might be balmy and sweet, and the recent downturn in the stock market might point to those rich bastards (and me) selling appreciated stock and paying those damn capital gains taxes…

And, then I ran across this telling chart at PowerLine:

That makes even more sense to me!!!

Note:
One last comment, the shrinking deficit and growing revenues are not surprising. My numbers for FY2006 are from February and I easily predicted the actual deficit numbers for FY2005. Mr. Andrews should take some time out of his CommonDreams and DailyKOS reads and check out some primary sources. I am eternally grateful to Jayson (formerly of PoliPundit) for directing me to the primary data in his 'Hooverville' posts.

UPDATE: (2006/07/09 2151)
I just had the honor of haveng a version of the above removed as a comment in a Brad DeLong's blog post titled 'Althouse.... The Stupidity Rays... Are Overwhelming...'. The honor of it all... But, I put some time in it. Guess he didn't like the fact that I called him on some opinion or another - but I definitely didn't Frisch him. The only time that has ever happened to me in the past was when the Huffington Post ran an article about the rich using loopholes to avoid taxes. I had to post a comment with a link to her public tax records (she was running for Governor of California the year before) and mention that while she had 4.5 million in income she paid $700 in taxes - like a pig at the trough. To her credit, the post was restored. Kinda sneaky about it...

Excremental Sighting at University of Arizona

Re(1): 'Protein Wisdom', Jeff Goldstein
Re(2): 'A New Low for the 'Progressives'', LittleGreenFootballs, Charles Johnson
Re(3): 'white flag', South(west)paw, Deborah Frisch
Re(4): 'A Psychologist's Defense of Ward Churchill', CounterPunch, Deborah Frisch
Re(5): 'On Blogosphere Manners - BRING IT ON', Left2Right, Comment by Deborah Frisch
Re(6): 'UCLA Faculty Diversity: Updated',ProfessorBainbridge, Can be titled: 'When Deb's Attack'
Re(7): 'Dang, will Deb pick on me now?', Deinonychus Antirrhopus, Deb Comments - Toughly!
Re(8): And, now the 'Maoist Internationalist Movement References our fine Professor...
Re(9): 'An Abbeyfest dispatch from Why, Arizona', Tuscon Weekly, Frish going to AbbeyFest

Deborah Frisch
Former Psychology Professor
University of Arizona

Ooo, a special note on bottom - AbbeyFest!!!









This Tepid Turd (a Progressive - most certainly) makes the following mea culpa:

July 08, 2006
white flag

I wrote some inflammatory comments at a blog by a guy named Jeff Goldstein called protein wisdom that infuriated many bloggers and commenters. Many of these bloggers emailed my boss at the University of Arizona to tell on me.

In hindsight, the things I wrote were over the line of nastiness. I apologize to Mr. Goldstein.

I have resigned from the University of Arizona so there is no need for other enraged people to write to administrators there.

Some blogs have posted comments that I perceive to be physically threatening. I have contacted the FBI and the Pajamas Media staff to determine how to proceed with this aspect of this unbelievable experience.

My intention in this post is to de-escalate the situation. The comments that started this all were nasty, not threatening. But I feel very threatened by the response.

Jeff - I lost my job. You won. Could you call off the troops?

Here is a compilation of comments this Learned Professor excreted on the Protein Wisdom blog site:

"..I’d like to hear more about your “tyke” by the way. Girl? Boy? Toddler? Teen? Are you still married to the woman you ephed to give birth to the tyke?

Tell all, bro! as I said elsewhere, if I woke up tomorrow and learned that someone else had shot you and your “tyke” it wouldn’t slow me down one iota. You aren’t "human” to me. So if you could just tell me the AGE and SEX of your “tyke,” I’d be stoked!

Thanx!

Ooh. Two year old boy. Sounds hot. You live in Colorado, I see. Hope no one Jon-Benets your baby.

Are you still married to the woman you humped to produce the toddler? I reiterate: If some nutcase kidnapped your child tomorrow and did to her what was done to your fellow Coloradan, Jon-Benet Ramsey, I wouldn’t give a damn.

You know, Jeff, I just don’t get it. You say, and I believe you, that a human female chose to procreate with you and you have produced a 2 year old progeny.

But you live in Colorado and I really can’t believe there are women desperate and/or stupid enough to procreate with the likes of you.

What am I missing, dude?

Bring it on, hombre.

Bring it on."

My guess is that folks pulled on their basketball sneakers, yanked on a pair of shorts and a tee-shirt and brought their game to the gym.

Sounds like she lost - she didn't have much game...

And, now the Mighty Excremental melts into diarrhea – to flow ever so slowly down to the turd farm to be processed and disposed of properly. Probably a non-organic process – oh the humanity of it all.

Mrs. Frisch, I would like to remind you and all the other future and past Excrementals on the web – The Net is Forever… Your Mea Culpa and your comments will be perused for years and decades and maybe centuries.

Yeah, your 15 minutes of fame!

Google: ""Deborah Frisch" for lifelong entertainment!!!

Can we start calling this type of commenter the 'Frischy Excremental'?

Note: Special thanks to the University of Arizona for prompt and proper action!

UPDATE:

I (Professor Frisch) was going for Abbeyfest VIII--the eighth annual gathering of members of an Internet list devoted to Edward Abbey. The abbeyweb ensnares libertarians, anarchists, activists and desert rats. Although I've been a member for five years, this was my first Abbeyfest.

Faith...

Re(1): 'Faith and Understanding', MySandmen, Dueller88

Note: This post is a slightly modified version of a comment logged in the reference.

Faith of all types plays a major role in major events.

If pushed hard enough, the West (referenced in your post as the Judeo-Christian tradition) pushes back hard. Generally, our culture stands by a social more of 'Live and Let Live.'

The corollary, however, is 'Kill or be Killed.' That came in WWII, the Civil War, the Revolutionary War, the War of Roses, ..., the 30 Years War, the Roman/Germanic Wars, the Persian Wars, ...

Faith (religious and/or secular) played a role in all. These eras were defined by sharply delineated belief structures. We are in an era of sharply delineated belief structures - internal and external.

Our great luck (and I really don't believe in luck) has provided us eight years of tremendous leadership which in the end may stem the destruction that seemed imminent on 9/11. But, will the internal conflict subside to the point that we can resolve the external conflict without huge amounts of bloodshed? Will the other parties in the external conflict stand down - defeated and demoralized, or at least accepting of ‘Live and Let Live' social mores?

We shall see internally. Will our culture destroy the NYT, the current incarnation of the Democratic Party, and the weak kneed concepts of the Liberal 60's - and then rebuild and restructure them. Or will the NYT, the Democratic Party, and the 60's Liberals defeat and change the culture? My guess here is the former. I think we are past the tipping point.

We shall see externally. President Bush is attempting to resolve the external threat (or at least the ones we can see today) through 'soft power' - I know the Libs will look askance at that, but think again... Can a shining city on a hill be built, culturally defined, and draw an entire civilization out of the gap? Or will that civilization march right past and into the abyss.

Right to were faith forces action.

Irrelevance...

Re(1): 'How far has the Democrat Party fallen? Part II', SecurityWatchTower, F.L. Welch
Re(2): 'Consent of the Governed at the Very Center of Hell...', BoghieOnYourSix, Me
Re(3): 'A still small voice...', Belmont Club, Wretchard TC
Re(4): 'Storm Warning...', My Sandmen, Mr. Atos

The Democratic Party is in serious trouble.

They can take no credit for a positive resolution in the Iraqi Theater of the GWOT.
They have harped constantly, carped often, and ranted themselves into apoplexy.

They have one slim chance to be relevant from this point onward. But, they are not taking the opportunity President Bush has repeatedly laid on their doorstep. That opportunity is the chance to play a major role in ‘Winning the Peace’.

How many times have we heard that option presented to those suffering BDS? They are positively aligned with being a (or maybe the) major player in defining the institutions that pull the Middle East swamp into the Corps group nations – to yank millions from the Gap. They built the UN, pushed through the Marshall Plan, developed and implemented the containment of totalitarian communism. They did all these things. Alas, that was sixty years ago – at the end of a generational saeculum.

Now, the prophets of liberalism do nothing but scream and yell.

Nothing...

So, one last chance - listen...

Behold, a voice came to him, and said, "What are you doing here, Elijah?"

The Libs Lose Their Lift...

Heh...

Major Mike applies the theory of arodynamics to the Liberal Democratic Party:

'L over Dmax...or How The Dems Lost Their Lift'

Uuuuuuummmmmm...

Me thinks they should read MMs fine dissertation regarding their piloting skills - then check out my post on how to get their Mojo back... Personally, I think the Libs have a running bear problem - their thinkers give the Republicans six months to fail, but the Democrats are slower and will fail in four (November). Remember, you don't have to be faster than the bear - just faster than the schlep next to you...

Libs, success is long term...

Not months, years? decades???

It will be a very long time coming...

But, nothing worthwhile is ever easy...

That damn pyramid thing again... Again...

For Real: How Democrats Can Surge to Victory!!!

Re(1): ‘Why Bush Is (Still) Winning the War at Home’, Time Magazine, Joe Kline

First, it is my opinion that the Democratic Party will lose seats in both the House and the Senate in November 2006. The caucus count will then determine whether they can stand and fight to regain some power from 2008 onward. I postulate this for the following reasons:

1. The Democratic Party mission statement is domestic
2. The Democratic Party cannot gain from military victory
3. We are winning in the Iraqi and Afghani theaters of conflict

Thus, the news cannot be good for Liberals – even military or political or social victories. The news can go sour for the NeoCons as well, but that situation is not likely to be sustained. The Republicans can simply wait for a victory and trump that up. As an example please note the events surrounding the death of al-Zarqawi.

‘W’s domestic policy is resulting in low unemployment, high productivity, and a growing tax base. The Democratic Party placed all their domestic eggs (almost their entire platform) fighting Bush’s tax policies, investment policies, and retirement policies. The Republicans can almost guarantee victory by streamlining their own pork. There is a growing realization that movements like the Porkbusters are watching them – and those people vote. Additionally, the one thing a politician needs is reelection. Therefore, what are the odds of Republican Congress Critters simply pushing their pork till next year – or the Administration simply not expensing the pork voted into the budget? So, low taxes, low unemployment, high productivity, and a magically shrinking deficit all go to the Republicans – and the Democratic Party will be viewed as Luddite Obstructionists.

Therefore, the Democratic Party is not in a position to capitalize on a success – they have not implemented anything to succeed at. Thus, while Joe Kline thinks the Bushies have six months to succeed in Iraq or they will fail miserably I think the Democratic Party must have a success within four months or fail permanently – election time.

What to do… Well… This is a bitter solution, but your only one:

Get out there and promote victory in Iraq and Afghanistan. If you have other sensible ideas present them. But get on the victory bandwagon. We have to win this conflict – cutting and running is not an option if we want lasting peace. We will win this thing.
And, most importantly start presenting ideas that support lasting peace…

That is how you can cut your losses this year – and get on the victory wagon in the years to come. We will win the conflict, but we also have to win the peace. Help build the structure that pulls the world together. Build a new and better United Nations. Your Party played the key role in winning the last Fourth Turning war, play a role in this one.

However, if you don’t step forward to help mop up the conflict and define the peace you will be in for a very long and protracted demise. We are talking about forty to sixty years in the hole.

Your choice…

A Fourth Turning War

Re(1): 'The Fourth Turning', William Strauss and Neil Howe
Re(2): 'A Fragile Basket...', My Sandmen, Mr. Atos

I recommend four books in the study of our times (copyright order):

• ‘Clash of Civilizations’, Samuel P. Huntington, 1996
• ‘The Fourth Turning’, William Straus and Neil Howe, 1997
• ‘Carnage & Culture’, Victor Davis Hanson, 2001
• ‘The Pentagon’s New Map’, Thomas P.M. Barnett, 2004

Here, I will key on the generational archetype study (Anglo Saxon) by William Straus and Neil Howe. To inadequately summarize – their theory is that four generational archetypes cycle repeatedly, and in order, through one ‘long life’ saeculum. Generations cycle this way because they rear children differently based on how they themselves were reared - and as a result of calamitous crises, ie. Fourth Turnings. Neil and Straus wrote their book in what they defined as a Third Turning.

Remember the mid-90’s. Dead center in a Third Turning generation Straus and Howe remark in the first pages of the book that:

AMERICA FEELS LIKE IT’S UNRAVELING.

Though we live in an era of relative peace and comfort, we have settled into a mood of pessimism about the long-term future, fearful that our superpower nation is somehow rotting from within.

…

We perceive no greatness in our leaders, a new meanness in ourselves.

…

Popular trust in virtually every American institution – from businesses and governments to churches and newspapers – keeps falling to new lows.

…

Wherever we’re headed, America is evolving in ways most of us don’t like or understand. Individually focused yet collectively adrift, we wonder if we’re heading toward a waterfall.

Are we?

That was the mid-90’s. The Third Turning of a four season saeculum. The authors then defined and predicted a Fourth Turning:

The Fourth Turning is a Crisis, a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the
values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one.

Basic math placed the beginning of the Fourth Turning somewhere around 2005. Sixty years after the end of the previous cataclysm – World War II. Forty years after the ‘Consciousness Revolution’, an Awakening period in which social mores are challenged (this would be the 60’s and 70’s). Twenty years after the Millennials started to be reared in ever more structured households. And, concurrent with the Millennials starting their very own Artist generation.

Simply awaiting the spark…

To make an understated argument – that spark was 9/11. Can there be any argument?

Like most, Straus and Howe did not read the effect Islamism would have on the world. In the mid-90’s it was thought that Islamism was contained and any problems were happening ‘over there’. So, I will select individuals that seem to fit the archetypes of this Fourth Turning:

Archetype	Other than Islamists	Islamists
Prophets	George W. Bush Tony Blair John Howard Ali Husaini Sistani	Osama bin Laden Ayman al-Zawahiri Iranian Shiite Clerics Saudi Wahhabi Clerics
Nomads	Donald Rumsfeld * James Mattis Peter Schoomaker Michael Petreus Nouri al-Maliki	Abu Musab al-Zarqawi Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Muqtada Al-Sadr Mohammed Atta Mohammed Abbas
Heroes	Being Made**	Hopefully Dying**
Artists	Being Born	Being Born

* Secretary Rumsfeld is outside the age demographic, but acts decisively like a Nomad.
** I do pick sides.

In other words, we are now perfectly aligned for a decisive war.

How well are we prepared for the struggle?

Here was the advice of Straus and How – with my interpretation on success and/or failure:

Prepare Values: There has been a decisive trend in American values in the past twenty five years. The struggle now is on the periphery. The values that are proving victorious are best defined by President George W. Bush – Compassionate Conservatism.

Prepare Institutions: The Congress has decidedly shifted and is now stable and gaining further stability. The current Left is being relegated to the periphery – the parenthesis. Under Presidents Reagan and Bush Sr. we did destroy our major adversary. We did modernize our military. We did build the framework for expanding our economy. Under President Clinton we did cut fat from the government structure. We did reform welfare dramatically. We did learn how to run Federal budget surpluses.

Prepare Politics: Reagan did define America as the “shining city on the hill”. Bush Sr. defined our world as “a thousand points of light” – a world were “aggression will not stand”. President Clinton signed reform that made our economy a more capitalist, work based economy. All three Third Turning Presidents emphasized the value of community and social structure. All three missed the important concept of preparing Americans for our nations ‘future’ challenges. However, ‘W’ has repeatedly and candidly and to great consequence to his political survival addressed those massive issues: Social Security, Immigration, War, and Values.

Prepare Society: President Clinton tried with many of his youth service programs. This is a very weak area – because Liberals and Conservatives have no consensus on how to do this.

Prepare Youth: This could be our weakest link. But, I think not – because our military age youth seem mature and socially adept and group oriented. Note the growth of religion, the fight over the boy scouts, the increased recruitment into the military, etc… However, our leaders did not restructure their resources from rich oldsters to budding youngsters – and still haven’t. It is coming.

Prepare Elders: ‘W’ is trying. The rest of our ‘leaders’ are not. Our corporations – and in fact our government – have shifted our retirement plans from defined benefits to defined contribution plans. The dividend tax changes also help. But, the elders are in for a big, big, big fall sometime within the next ten years. Could we be in a situation where social upheaval follows external upheaval? Yup…

Prepare the Economy: We are on target for moving folks to self-managed retirement plans, but too many are still counting on Social Security. Technologically, we are locked on for success. Our business and technological innovation is first rate. Our savings rate sucks (nice use of French) and nobody seems to care. ‘W’ is trying to readjust the tax base to enhance savings.

Prepare the Defense: Thank the Lord there was a Reagan and a Bush Sr. and a Gingrich. And, now ‘W’ is building a very strong and relatively inexpensive military. Did you know there are about 60,000 more grunts in our military than were present in 2001. And, as we recruit, more of the recruits are becoming teeth rather than tails.

So, again where are we:

A selected final thought from Straus and Howe:

The Fourth Turning could spare modernity but mark the end of our nation. It could close the book on the political constitution, popular culture, and moral standing that the word America has come to signify. This nation has endured for three saecula; Rome lasted twelve, Etruria ten, the Soviet Union (perhaps) only one. Fourth Turnings are critical thresholds for national survival. Each of the last three American Crises produced moments of extreme danger: In the Revolution, the very birth of the republic hung by a thread in more than one battle. In the Civil War, the union barely survived a four-year slaughter that in its own time was regarded as the most lethal war in history. In World War II, the nation destroyed an enemy of democracy that for a time was winning; had the enemy won, America might have itself been destroyed. In all likelihood, the next Crisis will present the nation with a threat and a consequence on a similar scale.

…

The new saeculum could find America a worse place. As Paul Kennedy has warned, it might no longer be a great power. Its global stature might be eclipsed by foreign rivals. Its geography might be smaller, its culture less dominant, its military less effective, its government less democratic, its Constitution less inspiring.

…

Alternatively, the new saeculum could find America, and the world, a much better place. Like England in the Reformation Saeculum, the Superpower America of the Millenial Saeculum might merely be a prelude to a higher plane of civilization. Its new civic life might be more nearly resemble that “shining city on a hill” to which colonial ancestors aspired.

My silly opinion:

I see a “shining city of a hill”. I watch as the Nomad generation increasingly votes for Prophets of a certain bent – Reaganesque. I listen and view vibrant arguments in the new media with great confidence. I watch as our Nomads lead our Millenials in successful military endeavors. As our nation maturely accepts the good and the bad. As our polity turns away from the isolationist self-centered screeching of folks and institutions stuck in prior generational seasons. As our economy grows in a sustainable fashion – with low unemployment and high productivity. And, as we work with others to resolve our demographic, economic, and military needs.

I watch as our enemies Prophets are silenced and their Nomads killed. As they further isolate themselves and their ideas. As they increasingly become viewed as rogues and barbarians.

On the other hand, I do have concerns:

That the Islamist threat may not actually be the Crisis (an odd, but honest thought). That half of our citizenry may be so entrenched in the Third Turning as to not cooperate in the Fourth Turning. That steps taken now may damage our polity. That much of our population is isolating themselves – and their valued opinions and concerns – from our polity. That, as a result of an Islamist move or the isolation of the Liberal polity, the next President may be a very dangerous Demagogue – the actuality of the Hard Lefts portrayal of ‘W’.

Time will tell, eh…

Be vigilant…

The Fighting Left Forming for Battle…

I don’t think this is what Peter Beinart was thinking of.

But, with the unforeseen mishap that occurred Thursday it is time to remind my readers of the success the Left has attained in the GWOT. I think we should include the eight years of the former Administration just to be fair. That is, Clinton’s eight years – with WTC 1, Khobar Towers, Embassy Bombings, Cole Bombing, beheadings in the Philippines, Rwanda, and maybe Bosnia – against Bush’s five years. Please use the comments to keep tabs.


C.S. Scott at SecurityWatchTower mentioned these 57 gentlemen by name – and alluded to a total of two hundred chaps in an earlier listing. I will include that list as a starting point.

So the score is at least 57 to 0.

As a reminder, this is President Clinton's crackerjack team:
















Get busy…

A Hopeful Message to the Center Left…

Regretfully, when you vote for one of the few remaining center-left candidates,

You are Now Voting for:
as Speaker of the House














And, for:
as Majority Leader of the Democratic Party

















And, for:
to run the House Judiciary Committee.













Please Reconsider!!!

Get these schlumps out of the leadership and I may even join you in throwing the bums out...

Don’t Dine with Terror Turds :-{

Re(1): ‘Don't Invite Terror Turds to Your Wedding Party...’, BoghieOnYourSix, Me
Re(2): ‘CBS/AP: US Troops Beat Zarqawi Before He Died’, Sweetness & Light

Collateral casualties in the GWOT. The teenage wife and infant of al-Zarqawi were casualties in the air strike on the ‘safe’ house. We probably knew they were there. We pulled the trigger – and we apparently made the decision at a fairly local level in the chain of command. OK. Good.

Compare this effective strike with the constant confliction and inaction of the previous Administration. Their inaction directly led the murder of tens of thousands of innocent people over the span of a decade.

I would like to remind the Libs reading this post. The measured action – with probable full knowledge of the circumstances – resulted in al-Zarqawi commiting exactly zero (0) atrocities from 2006/06/08 onward. Please use the comments section to post your successes in the GWOT.

Special Note: It didn’t take long did it? The AP and CBS ‘news’ outlets use an unnamed Iraqi source – who lives in the area of the al-Zarqawi strike, a hotbed of terror support – to lay claim to be the first reference of Americans beating al-Zarqawi to death. My note: Oh, well and good for it! Why take this slug alive? But, then again, these unnamed sources – especially Iraqis in the middle of a Terror Support Zone – tend to lie. What next, was there a wedding party going on?

ADVICE: MSM, as represented by the AP and CBS News in the above reference, please, oh please don't go out there. Out there is doom. Out there is ridicule. Uuuugggghhhhhh. Don't go further into the land of the Moonbats. Don't get your commentary mentioned on Err America... Don't go there. Uuuuuuuggghhhhh, I probably own some of your stock in my 401(k). Maybe, in a Rovian way, the MSM is trying their best to doom our economy and stock market - in the best of the BDS tradition.

Re(1): 'Hidatha in Context', MySandmen, Major Mike

Re(1): 'Hidatha in Context', MySandmen, Major Mike
Re(2): 'Blogosphere Blues', MySandmen, Major Mike

Major Mike just ended his blogger hiatus using his loud command voice to target the mark of Hidatha – as defined by the hard Left, as defined by the Mediacrats, and as defined by Mike:

I was done. I couldn’t type. It is an immensely complex issue that I didn’t have the energy to attack. So I didn’t. For the first time since I was first pulished in Proceedings magazine in 1991, I backed away from the fight, and what is worse, is that I failed to do it when my fellow Marines are entitled to my support.

I was disheartened by the initial, hysterical reports. I was disgusted by the judge and jury act of Rep. Murtha. I am also disgusted by the leaks coming out of the NIS in SoCal. I am fearful that the Army leadership in Iraq understands little about counter-insurgent warfare and its inherent difficulties and stresses. And I am in anguish by the thought that these charges may be true, and that the leadership elements in the Corps may be failing their Marines, and more importantly, that some elements of the Marine Chain of Command, may be derelict in their duties, and failing our country.

It was too much to tackle. But I became haunted by the idea that Marines world-wide would be smeared to a great extent, if some call for calm, reason, and possibly
mitigating factors, were not brought out.

Major Mike, our Marine Corps is working this out. The Corps is a great institution. If these Marines are innocent they will be absolved. If they are partially culpable than they will serve time. If war crimes, they will pay dearly – such actions are the mark of the beast. Patience and justice. Justice will be done – swift and sure.

So, he got me on a rant, and I had to comment on the Blogosphere Blues:

This thing is a grind – there, here, and everywhere.

Here is what pisses me off enough to absolutely no end. When we had to make the decision to go into Iraq we had ‘full’ commitment in Congress, the media, and the electorate. We now know what ‘full’ commitment is to the Left Wing of our polity. It is Kerry voting for the 80 Billion before he voted against it. It is Mawkish Murtha voting to initiate combat - then a year later telling the world it is all someone else’s fault and we have to run away. It’s the media running amok with Abu Graib and Hidatha while finding the demise of barbaric Terror Turds to be unworthy of comment.

But, is it an American public turning its back?
Moving from an Oooraahhhh of 80% to an uuuggggghhhhh of 40%.

I think not. We are in a grind. To me, the American public is more like a lineman in the mud of a close football game than some flighty receiver bitching that he is not getting the ball enough. Why? Can you not feel the hunker. Let the LOPS (Low Output People) scream and rant – we will get the job done. Feel the ground shake as Americans dig in to get lower than the enemy on the other side. One line push at time. Deal with the media. Deal with the Lefties. Deal with the Eurotrash. Just one shove at a time.

I feel it. It is more lasting than an oooorrraaaaahhh.

And, it is very dangerous to those wide-outs throwing tantrums on the sidelines. Their season and their careers may end in a few months, but even now they are not sensing their own demise. Today, the day al-Zarqawi became a footnote; our ignorant and spoiled receiver took a punch at the coach. Bad news, no news, we lose. Guess what superstar, this is a ground game. We don’t need you. We don’t trust you. You do not matter.

Here is the world as I see it.

• Over there, we fight barbarism. Others have fought the battle in years past. It is now our turn. This will be ugly at times – as your post emphasizes. But, it is necessary. It will not finish in a draw. There will be a winner. There will be a loser
  
• Over here, we send our honor, our resources, and our blood to the very depths of hell. We knew it. We know it. We have to accept it. We have an honorable and just mission. We have honorable and just leadership. We are an honorable and just people In this thing we have to win – or we will lose. There are no options.

In the end, we have to win.

My District – the California 50th…

I had to deny my morning radio host of choice – Laura Ingraham – a Nielson point or so by wandering up the dial to KLSD (Err America) this morning. When my screaming cat woke me at 0547 this morning I could just barely envision a lug nut bouncing off the Liberal Band Wagon. No NASCAR today folks – I’ve got a live crash!!!

They just can’t figure out why anyone would have voted for Bilbray…

Let me start with why I could not vote for Busby:

• John Conyers will still have to run his impeachment tea party in the basement
• A vote for her is a vote for Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House
• A vote for her is a vote to weaken the resolve in the GWOT
• A vote for her is a vote for unwavering amnesty

And, I ain’t even a MinuteMan type of guy…

Now, why would I vote for Bilbray:

• He won the Republican primary fairly
• He will vote for a sensible Speaker of the House
• He will help curb the voracious spending appetite of Congress
• He has always been reasonable on the topic of illegal immigration

So, how do Democrats win my vote (and I have voted for Dems in the past):

• Choose better Party Leadership
• Stop being so rabidly anti-military
• Start valuing and emulating leadership
• Get a viable alternative to conservative ideals
• Allow America and her allies to win the GWOT

Toronto - Why Toronto...

A bit of a rant, but Toronto was an easy choice in my Islamofascist target list...

From December 24, 2005:

However, if you are an Idiotarian Lefty, please understand that the next targets are yours:

1. CNN
2. Paris
3. Toronto
4. Hollywood
5. Amsterdam
6. San Francisco
7. United Nations
8. Gay Pride Parades

Radical Islamists hate the corrupting influence of soft western power as well. The best of them (al Qaeda) target not just people, but icons of our civilization. Thank God, on this Christmas Eve, that al Qaeda targeted the part of America that fights back rather than cowers down!

NOTE: Yes, I know Major Mike will enjoy the whole pyramid thang. Just watched a show on the History Station on the architect of the Great Pyramid - and, no, it was not Mr. Atos!!! That show got the synapses firing a bit off again...

Media/Leftist Chemical Dependency on Holographs...

A couple of questions for the Media and others still immersed in a fading holograph:

The American economy (GDP) has grown by about 35% since CY2000 (Calendar Year). I have a distinct feeling that NO other economy has grown that much over the past six years. Did bin Laden and his likeminded Jihadi autocrats think that would be the end result of 9/11. What happens when (as I think is happening right now) we start to consume less resources in our fight against a weakening enemy. Is this a matrix point for determining the winning team in the GWOT?

One side has a highly trained military in, or adjacent to, ALL borders of the enemy bastions – with freedom and capability of movement. The other has to rely on fairly incompetent boobs who can’t figure out that electronic communications can be – shall we say – observed by the Great Satan. Anywhere in the world. Is this a matrix point for determining the winning team in the GWOT?

One side seems to be implementing TQL style constant process improvement practices to constantly enhance capability. The other side is doing what they have been doing for decades. Nobody likes slow improvement. It is not sexy. But, it is measurable and constant. And the changes are always in the right direction. Always better. Always pushing the ball forward. Kindof strangling for the other side. The Jihadis wander from one hell hole to another because they have to – they are reacting to our moves. Where is that damn Qaim Centered Caliphate anyway? Is this a matrix point for determining the winning team in the GWOT?

There appears to be a few shaped charges in play. Not by chumps in a garage who routinely blow themselves up – but by strategic long term thinkers. What else is the wall in the West Bank other than a shaped charge? What else was the pullout from Gaza? What else are the Anbar action and the stuff going on at the Iranian border? The shaping of those kinetic charges points back to the centers of terror. And, the Terror Turds are starting to fight amongst themselves. These Terror Turds are starting to kill one another in something easily defined as civil war but what are they accomplishing? Who is following the guiding light of the Terror Turd leadership? Hard to attack the Great Satan and the Little Satan and the minions of Satan when you have to squabble over a shrinking piece of the pie in the Turd World. However, other parts of the Third World are starting to develop. Is this a matrix point for determining the winning team in the GWOT?

And, we have not destroyed a culture, a people, a civilization.

To the Media and Democrats, get out of the holograph – quick. It’s faaadddddiiiiiiinggggg.

Can You Read the Court?

Re(1): 'Forget About It', The Belmont Club, Wretchard T.C.
Re(2): 'The Essential President Bush', The Anchoress
Re(3): 'The Anchoress: The Essential President Bush', Me

Remember all the undercurrent commentary about President Bush as he was running for office in 1999.

1. He was a reluctant candidate.
2. He was not driven to become President.
3. No childhood pictures with President Kennedy
4. He didn't want to get into the tough political mud throwing.

Folks, he was the best man for the times.

The mediacrats and the Left can reacquire some authority and respect from the American citizenry if they are constructive in the goal of building a lasting peace. They can't seem to read the court though. Hidatha! Abu Ghraib! Tarawa! Diep! Vietnam! They can't see: Consensual governance in Iraq! Consensual governance in Afghanistan! Consensual governance in Lebenon! A civil war on the West Bank and Gaza! Democratic unrest in Egypt! Even UN action against Iran! So President Bush is giving them another chance (like the UN) to be relevant. But, blinded by BDS, they can’t seem to get past a Yalta Accord style solution. We don’t have to deal with a great power Stalin anymore.

The 2+ years remaining in Bush Presidency may be unforgiving to the Left in America if they continue to rant and rave. He is up to creating a lasting framework for victory and peace. The Left has to learn to be constructive to stay in the game.

I don’t think President Bush wants a One Party State in America – see above and all his attempts to work with those in the other aisle – but that is where we may be going.

Is that good?

Will it be good to have an unconstrained polity?

Will future historians blame President Bush or the Media or the Democratic Party leadership?