Sauron Reporting Doom from Mount Doom..

Re(1): 'U.S. Army records 10th straight month exceeding recruiting goals', SecurityWatchTower, C.S. Scott
Re(2): 'Iraq Coalition Casualty Count', Iraq Coalition Casualty Count
Re(3): 'Budget Deficit Estimation...', Me
Re(4): 'Federal Budget Deficit - MoveOn Libs, nothing to see here', Me

Byline: Mr. Sauron, Reporting from Mount Doom

After reading C.S. Scott’s post ‘U.S. Army records 10th straight month exceeding recruiting goals’ I immediately thought of a few other topics the media is silent about:

Military Recruiting: All active duty recruiting goals have been met or exceeded. Reserve recruiting has been spotty. I, however, contend that current Administration and DOD goals are deemphasizing reserve and guard strength. That cannot be stated for political reasons – but review the BRAC base closings. Reserve and Guard commands were ‘streamlined’ and closed at a much higher rate than active duty stations. Can anyone deny that the Army should restructure to more of a Marine Corps force structure?

Iraq Quagmire: Since the ratification of the Iraqi Constitution in October 2005 the Coalition fatality rate has dropped from 3.19/day to 2.07/day. This includes traffic accidents and the like, but the statistics are drawn consistently so we are comparing apples to apples. This month (March 2006) we are looking at a 0.91/day rate. At these low numbers any lucky hit by al Qaeda in Iraq will affect the rates. Regardless, the rates are in a rather dramatic decline.

Iraq Civil War: The statistics do not support that contention even though there has been a little upturn in Iraqi casualties. Here is what appears to be happening in our media: CNN will report an atrocity today, CBS tomorrow will report the same thing tomorrow, and ABC will follow a bit later. The viewer sees the same event three times as three discrete events. View the link and note how many mass attrocities are documented - and then remember how they were presented in the media. Day after day the same mass killing would be presented - and be presented in a slant that made them seem like new events.

Unemployment: National Unemployment rates have dropped from 6% in 2003 to less than 5% in 2006. Neither rate results in soup lines and migrations of populations. And, 5% is considered full employment. Right now wages are going up and the Federal Reserve is concerned about inflation. Unemployment concerns???

Economic Growth: Since 2003 we have had an average of 3.5% GDP growth. That is a perfect number. Neither too fast for a boom, nor slow enough to throw the US into a recession. This reasonable growth rate is sustainable and is the reason why many are whining about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates for ten consecutive cycles.

Annual Deficit: FY2003’s deficit was 3.4% of our GDP, FY2005’s deficit was 2.6% of our GDP. My estimate for FY2006 is it will come in around 2.1% of GDP. FY2007 will be better because Congress is starting to be shamed into a conservative alignment.

Corporate Tax Cuts: Corporate income tax revenues in FY2003 were 131 Billion, in FY2005 they were 278 Billion. At the height of President Clinton’s vaunted economy corporate income tax revenue were 185 Billion (FY1999). Thus, Bush’s corporate cronies are paying much more now than they did under Clinton. My guess is that we will see a corporate income tax revenue stream of about 350 Billion in FY2006.

Outsourcing Jobs: Uuuummmm, Lefties and Buchananites, ever hear about the baby boom. You folks still spend money like drunken sailors. There are fewer people in the US providing goods and services for them. Face up to the fact that you will have to accept immigration or accept outsourcing to satisfy your purchasing pattern. Understand another thing Boomers: Do you think the GenXers will pay for your retirement when you did not save for it. You reared a tough brood. Remember we were the latch key children that used to shoot each other in the classroom. More seriously, look at the comments from the SNCOs and mid-level officers in our military - they are willing to accept casualties for mission achievement.

Where shall Doom fall next...

Enjoy and invest!!!

Air America in Phoenix seeking venture capitalists…

Re(1): 'How Long', The Radio Equalizer, Brian Maloney
Re(2): www.SaveAirAmericaPhoenix.com

Evil Right Wing Christian Wingnuts purchased Air America’s powerhouse station in Phoenix after collecting donations from two pancake breakfast fundraisers in February. The current owners apparently did not get their monthly check from the Boys and Girls Clubs of New York in a timely manner. We all know what happens when the rent check is always late.

And, Air America was just starting to make money. I mean, their ratings grew from a dominating 1.5 in the Summer 2005 season to an amazing 1.1 now. That is some growth, eh… Kinda like a cancerous growth on the brain… Maybe next quarter they will be at less than a 1 share – editor’s note: Air America Phoenix is actually pulling in a flat 0 share right now.

You can donate money (or actually loan them money) here: SaveAirAmericaPhoenix

Note: I would not recommend this investment be part of your long term retirement plan.

If you want to see just how close you are toward funding the effort to restart Air America at the Arizona Technical College radio station (with an audience reach of almost 3,452 residents) view this site: GotStation

And they have a blog you can leave a nifty comment on their blog...

Here to help,
Boghie

THIS is the Leadership we NEED!!!

Re(1): ‘Democrats Struggle To Seize Opportunity’, Washington Post, Shailagh Murray and Charles Babington

There I was a decade ago:

"It could be a great year for Democrats," said Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.), but the party must present a more moderate face and distinguish itself more clearly from the GOP on issues such as ethics. "The comment I hear is 'I'd really like to vote for you guys, but I can't stand the folks I see on TV,' " Cooper said in a telephone interview from Nashville.

Sounds like President Clinton fighting ‘The War on Terror’:

Democratic leaders had set a goal of issuing their legislative manifesto by November 2005 to give voters a full year to digest their proposals. But some Democrats protested that the release date was too early, so they put it off until January. The new date slipped twice again, and now House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) says the document will be unveiled in "a matter of weeks."

Maybe another meeting – or maybe appoint an ‘Election Tsar!!!

But many in the party have their doubts. On Feb. 27, Reid and Pelosi appeared before the Democratic Governors Association. At one point in the conversation, Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, noting that the two leaders had talked about a variety of themes and ideas, asked for help. Could they reduce the message to just two or three core ideas that governors could echo in the states?

According to multiple accounts from those in the room, Reid said they had narrowed the list to six and proceeded to talk about them. Pelosi then offered her six -- not all the same as Reid's. Oregon Gov. Ted Kulongoski said later: "One of the other Governors said 'What do you think?' and I said 'You know what I think? I don't think we have a message.' "

And, uh…

Even the party's five-word 2006 motto has preoccupied congressional Democrats for months. "We had meetings where senators offered suggestions," Reid said. "We had focus groups. We worked hard on that. . . . It's a long, slow, arduous process."

That slogan -- "Together, America Can Do Better" -- was revived from the 2004 presidential campaign of Sen. John F. Kerry. It was the last line of Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine's response to President Bush's State of the Union address, and Reid, Pelosi and Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean have used it in speeches. But there is an effort afoot to drop the word "together." It tests well in focus groups and audiences, Democratic sources said, but it makes the syntax incorrect.

I think I could vote for a party who follows the polls:

"There are lots of skeptics," Schumer conceded. But the polls look better and better, he stressed. "There may be some inside-the-Beltway babble, but it's not affecting the voters," said Schumer, who wants the agenda delayed again -- until summer.

China - World Domination...

Re(1): 'JOURNAL: When China Derails', Global Guerillas, John Robb
Re(2): 'Big Bangs', Global Guerillas, John Robb
Re(3): 'Mighty Chinese Armada spotted rounding South Korean peninsula!!!', Me!!!

Boing...

China is the Borg
We will be assimilated!!!

Boing...

Japan is the Borg
We will be assimilated!!

Boing...

The Soviet Union is the Borg
We will be assimilated!

On a post at Global Guerrillas John Robb posits that China may disintegrate rather than dominate. I think that is highly likely and commented as follows:

Getting my tinfoil hat out...

Is there a possibility that economic forces were used in a peaceful conflict with Japan in the 90's?

Remember the commentary that Japan was purchasing America, was outstripping our production, was competing us into oblivion, was too important to challenge because of the debt load it held over our head. Many of the same arguments noted above stating that the impending collapse of China's economy would destroy its polity and recall assets back from the United States were made in the 80's regarding Japan. Pat Buchanan ran a presidential campaign on such constructs.

Would you pull money out of U.S. backed securities or U.S. multinational Fortune 500 companies to reinvest into a collapsing state? Japanese investors who ‘bought on the bubble’ did have to ‘fire sale’ speculative real-estate in the early 90’s. And, their economy is only now reviving.

The interesting element of China is this: Is the vast majority of the U.S. debt load controlled by the government of China or by investors and individuals? The answer to that may inform us of how a political and economic collapse in China affects our
polity and economy.

Regardless, I think you are largely correct. China, like the Soviet Union, North Korea, Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, etc. are hollow entities and will collapse spectacularly. I think your previous post ‘Big Bang’ plays an enormous role in these interesting times.

At least we will have something to talk to our grand children about!!!

Because I have caveated the comment (and hence this post) with the crossed fingers tin-foil hat clause this post shall not be subject to the ‘My Flameout’ list if disproved by an intrepid commenter. Still, a discussion would be welcome - and if someone completely clobbers the thought I might stick it in the anti-memory hole of the Flameouts as a token entry. Still waiting for the first Flameout...

Definitely visit John Robb’s Global Guerillas site.

Boing, Boing…

Late August, remembrance of Katrina…

Early September, remembrance of 9/11…

Early November, elections in the United States…

These events will shape our politics for decades to come. I have a read on how 9/11 affects the political discussion. I have no clue regarding Katrina. However, my guess is that the out of power Democrats may be boosted a bit in the very short term – till 2008. That is because I think the Katrina fiasco has been personalized by the Democratic Party – and personalized to President GW Bush.

Long term, we shall see if there is an increasing belief and confidence in the general incompetence of government as a result of viewing the brilliant leadership of all levels of government in the wake of catastrophe. Conservatives, and conservative stricture, do not count on a government savior to pluck the individual from decrepit rooftops.

We shall see, we shall see…

Budget Deficit Estimation...

Re(1): 'Annual Unemployment Rate', US Bureau of Labor
Re(2): 'GDP', US Department of Commerce
Re(3): 'GDP Growth Rate', US Department of Commerce

We have a reducing unemployment rate

Unemployment:

FY2000 - 4.0%
FY2001 - 4.7%
FY2002 - 5.8%
FY2003 - 6.0%
FY2004 - 5.5%
FY2005 - 5.1%

We have GDP Growth

GDP Growth

FY2000 - 3.7%
FY2001 - 0.8%
FY2002 - 1.6%
FY2003 - 2.7%
FY2004 - 4.2%
FY2005 - 3.5%

And, we have an accelarating GDP

GDP (In Billions)

FY2000 - 9,817
FY2001 - 10,128
FY2002 - 10,469
FY2003 - 10,971
FY2004 - 11,743
FY2005 - 12,479

And, now for the spreadsheet (uuuggghhh, as a stupid picture )-:)

Federal Budget Deficit - MoveOn Libs, nothing to see here

re(1): 'Gummint', www.polipundit.com, Jayson
re(2): 'January 2006 Budget Statement', U.S. Treasury
re(3): 'FY2005 Budget Statement', U.S. Treasury
re(4): 'January 2005 Budget Statement', U.S. Treasury
re(5): 'FY2004 Budget Statement', U.S. Treasury
re(6): 'January 2004 Budget Statement', U.S. Treasury
re(7): 'FY2003 Budget Statement', U.S. Treasury
re(8): 'January 2003 Budget Statement', U.S. Treasury

To all,

I have been spending all day (all weekend, actually) trying to place an HTML table in a blog entry on this fine Blogger driven page... Stupid thing places a billion blank lines (which cannot be deleted) before the table appears. Very nice, and a known bug with no real resolution...

So folks, as of now you get no raw data... What a raw deal...

The basic gist of the whole thing was to inform my few (and getting fewer) readers that it looks as if the Federal budget deficit is shrinking. It looks to be between:

286 Billion (taken from reviewing Actual/January ratios)

and

316 Billion (taken from the reviewing Actual/CBO ratios)

That is a far cry from the origininal FY2006 CBO estimate of 423 Billion...

I would put my money on the lower number, and even go lower than that... By the way, I slogged through emails I send to friends every once in a while. I missed last years deficit number by about 9 Billion - I figured it to be about 325 Billion. The CBO figured FY2005's deficit at 426 Billion - so they missed it by only 101 Billion.

Anyone remember President Bush's campaign pledge to cut the deficit in half by FY2009 (his last budget). Well guess what, the CBO estimate for FY2004 was 520 Billion - in reality it came in at about 412 Billion, missing the mark by 108 Billion - good enough for government work. Last year (FY2005) the CBO estimate missed the target by only 101 Billion. He was sitting at 318 Billion at the end of FY2005. Thus, President Bush has to shave off about 25 Billion over the next three years in a growing economy, with conservative electorate pressing to reduce expenses, and with the wind down of Iraq.

Hhhhhmmmm, can he make it?

Me thinks so

I think he will make it even if a couple of hundred thousand American military personnel make an unexpected visit to a nation steeped in the history of Xerxes and Darius and Alexander and Sulla.

Me thinks my el Presidente will be looking quite rosy when he troops about the nation campaigning for squishy Republicans.

And Jayson, where is the Hooverville remark in your post. How am I to find it in the future. Certainly the Libs expect a better unemployment rate that 4.9% and a rapidly shrinking deficit. They are fighting goverment expenditures with every breath they take. I can just see their campaign - 4% unemployment and a deficit of 2% will crush the poor, disabled, and elderly!!!

Virtue, Freedom, and Cartoons

Re(1): 'Land of the Free', National Review, Dinesh D'Souza

Virtue without Freedom is a mere echo of itself…

The recent Islamic and Western uproar regarding the Mohammad cartoons remineds me of a Dinesh D’Souza debate on competing values of Virtue and Freedom in the West and Islam.

To Summarize:

A second problem, Qutb wrote, is that the core principle of America is liberty — the right to determine one's own destiny — and this, he argued, is a highly defective principle. The reason is that liberty can be used well or liberty can be used badly. Given what Immanuel Kant called "the warped timber of humanity," the human propensity for selfishness and vice, Qutb argued that freedom will
often be used badly.

…

This, in brief, is Qutb's defense of Islamic theocracy. Islamic societies may be poor, Qutb admitted, but at least they are seeking to implement the will of God. Even if they are failing at this, Qutb said, at least they are trying. And that — he concluded — makes Islamic society superior to Western society.

…

But if freedom brings out the worst in people, it also brings out the best. The millions of Americans who live decent, praiseworthy lives deserve our highest admiration because they have opted for the good when the good is not the only available option. Even amid the temptations that a rich and free society offers, they have remained on the straight path. Their virtue has special luster because it is freely chosen. The free society does not guarantee virtue any more than it guarantees happiness. But it allows for the pursuit of both — a pursuit rendered all the more meaningful and profound because success is not guaranteed but has to be won through personal striving.

By contrast, the theocratic and authoritarian society that Islamic fundamentalists advocate undermines the possibility of virtue. If the supply of virtue of insufficient in free societies, it is almost nonexistent in Islamic societies, because coerced virtues are not virtues at all. Consider the woman in Afghanistan or Iran who is required to wear the veil. There is no real modesty in this, because the woman is being compelled. Compulsion cannot produce virtue; it can only produce the outward semblance of virtue.

Why does the Mohammad cartoon confrontation remind me of D’Souza’s discussion on the two basic building blocks of our two very different civilizations?

That is easy to answer:

1. The West may deride the stupidity of choice that led to the confrontation – but will never challenge the freedom to choose the action. A denial of the freedom to proceed as these editors did implies that brilliant and valued decisions of these selfsame editors are forever thus coerced.
   
2. On the other hand, Islam cannot amend itself to accept ridicule of its cultural heritage – and will strike those who challenge it even if they ultimately fail, because at least they are trying to attain and/or retain virtue. The graven and churlish and ridiculous images of ‘The Prophet’ – by the infidel, no less - cannot be countenanced.
   
3. Islam seeks coercive action from the state to resolve the issue – because the state, no matter how impure, must submit in some way to Allah.
   
4. The West seeks resolution through free expression of opposing views, shame, and other ideas – because opposing ideas are freely expressed; let the best win.

Now the question:

Are the barbaric acts of violence a result of virtue or coercion or both? Since the question must be asked, the answer is provided.

QED

I am hardening...

My steel is tempering…

A Few Clear Thoughts on the Law of Wiretapping…

Three Axioms:

1. To wiretap a communication stream in the United States you require a court warrant.
2. The FISA court has legal precedence in the American judicial system
3. There is no actual international court or precedence

Three Questions

1. Do both sides of the wiretapped communication link in the United States require a court warrant?
2. Are all international calls adjudicated by FISA or the United States Courts?
3. Is a FISA ruling binding in a sovereign state other than the United States?

Three Answers:

1. No, only the target of a wiretap within the United States is covered by the warrant. This is obvious because it is unknown who is making contact or being contacted by the individual for whom the warrant is writ.
2. The United States Courts (and thus FISA) have no power outside of the United States.
3. Therefore, FISA court warrants have no judicial power on a communications wiretap of a targeted source outside of the United States.

Three Issues:

1. Did the NSA target new Americans with wiretaps after those Americans (in the United States) communicated with the original target – again without a warrant? Even the New York Times journalist doesn’t make this claim, but it would be problematic legally and morally.
2. Is it morally right to have the ability to wiretap 5.7 Billion people in the world simply because they are not US citizens?
3. If some international court does have some law, is it binding and is it enforced?

Consequently, at least from a non-lawyer's standpoint, the NSA wiretaps are legal - and not even in a grey area. Regretfully, the 5.7 billion people in the world who are not US citizens, and who live outside our borders, are not covered by US law - to include FISA precedence and US Constitutional protections. Thus, a tap on a communications stream with the target residing outside of US judicial boundries does NOT require any court acceptance, nor any Congressional acceptance. The only hold would be an international agreement, but those are not binding.

Newsy Bits...

Note (2006/01/26 1958):

Hamas and the Palestinians

• Who cares about the Palestinians…
• The Israelis have put them behind walls…
• Just get the TV cameras and satellites rolling...
• Next month they run out of Air America style donations…

And, while we are at it, how bout that purveyor of honesty – Air America

The Randi Rhodent told us all today that her market share is growing by 60%, 80%, 2,000,000%. Me thinks she has forgotten to remind her listener(s) that 100% growth from a base of 50,000 listeners results in 100,000 national listeners.

I don’t know the numbers, but I can smell a turd when one rolls by!!!

Air America list of stations: ‘Find a Station’
Check this out: Air America Affiliate ‘Newsradio WTAM 1100’

Kinda looks like the Air America affiliate is a sports talk station with Rush Limbaugh
and the Left’s ‘Voice of Reason’ (Jerry Springer) as political talking heads.
Hhhhmmmmm, that turd sure stunk when I noted the 7.9 listener share. I had
to check it out when the Rhodent ranted about her listener growth…

And who cares about Air America and their listener base. Just like the Palestinians, they have done this to themselves. One nice positive is that big money Lefties are still wasting precious campaign cash on this ‘enterprise’.

Millions spent filling a hole in the ocean – Priceless…

Note (2006/01/26 1958):

I decided I had to review the spreadsheet that bored little me created containing Air America's ratings (culled from their list and www.radioandrecords.com). Air America's highest rated station is:

KLSD in San Diego (uuuggghhhh) with a reasonable 3.1 share in the 17th largest market

Uuuummm, I live in San Diego, and sometimes listen to the Rhodent. But, I also like train wrecks and electoral disasters... The nicest thing about San Diego winning this sweepstakes is that the next highest is Detroit's WDTW with a 2.2 share. Quite the drop off, eh...

Right Wing Radio behemoth KOGO 600 in San Diego has a 5.2 share...

Iran...

Re(1): 'The Road to Tehran...', National Review, Michael Ledeen
Re(2): 'Warriors and Wusses', Left Angeles Times, Joel Stein
Re(3): 'Warriors and Wusses?', BlackFive, Uncle J
Re(4): 'CIA Fact Book', www.cia.gov, Some Spooky Guy

An Important Prediction for 2006!!! Just a month or so late :-(

The United Nations will attempt to impose their normal weak sanctions program on Iran. The problem is that Iran is functionally surrounded by, oh shall we say, fanatically aggressive enforcers of sanction programs targeting Iran. I will not speak for the thirty-something year old captains and majors and SNCOs in the military, but I am guessing that their ‘political’ teeth were cut during the Iran Hostage Crisis. Maybe some of the old geezers remember that year with less than fondness. Just a guess. Take a look at a nice map from the CIA’s factbook.

Hhhhmmmm…


To the west are 130,000 front line American soldiers and Marines. Also to the west are 290,000 increasingly effective American trained Iraqi troops. These half-million soldiers might play a role in enforcing a sanctions regime against Iran.

To the south we have the United States Navy. Every day of the year there is a nearby carrier and a battle group of frigates, destroyers, cruisers, and submarines. There is a reasonable assumption that such a force could effectively blockade Iran’s oil exports. Nothing to see here folks, move along…

To the east is Pakistan. Who knows… But, recent rending of clothing aside, I think it can be demonstrated that Pakistan will be of little or no help to Iran. Apparently, there is little or no trade between Iran and Pakistan anyway. Thus there will be little or no opportunity for George Galloway to make a quick Sterling Pound or so through graft and corruption. With American troops in Pakistan, and our current agreements with Pakistan, I do not think Iran will look east to break an embargo.

Also east is Afghanistan. There are thousands of American ground forces sitting around taking their GED for the eighth time (or whatever Joel Stein thinks they do – such the expert). They might, just might, get annoyed at anyone trying to break a UN embargo in their part of town. Those GED tests are expensive, and our gullible underclass need all the study time they can get.
Now to the weak point – the north. There are no pipelines for Iran’s major export – unlike that which traversed Syria to the Mediterranean. Syria’s pipeline was used by Saddam to continuously pump the oily sludge Galloway was slopping up – years before his recent fine television appearances!!!

Thus, we have an effective blockade – even though the UN is wary of anything effective against their club of corrupt kleptocracies.

Concerns:
Today, foreign nations purchased significantly less American debt than expected. Is it because the interest rate wasn’t competitive – or because they want to hit us using our debt load as a weapon? Regardless, it is time to reduce our debt creation by at least 20%. Now, right now… Hey Libs, be happy. We will have to sacrifice something to win this war against Islamic Terror.

May Libs and Buchaninites seem to think Israel shares a border with Iran. That Israel can deal with this problem without waking us from our nice nap. Guess what, any Israeli attack on Iran would require American acquiescence. See above. Can you think of any way Israel can strike Iran without American support? Eh…

Interesting Times…

Faster Please…

Where is the Outrage???

Re(1): 'Uneasy dreams and monstrous vermin', The Belmont Club, Wretchard TC
Re(2): 'Psychology of Suicide Bombers', Discovery Channel

We are in the midst of a spurt of ‘kidnappings’ taking place throughout the barbaric Islamic world. The kidnappings taking place in Gaza, the West Bank, Iraq, and Afghanistan are becoming a weekly affair.

Where is the Outrage in the American public?

Are we Americans that apathetic, that inured to tragedy, that obsessed in our goal of destroying terrorist organizations.

Or are we starting to see a very odd pattern emerging – one that we subconsciously expected.

We know small groups can radicalize around ideas. The ‘Discovery Channel’ aired a documentary last night titled ‘Psychology of Suicide Bombers’ that postulated on the formation of terrorist organizations. First a small group independently radicalizes – using material and ideas from the ‘corporate’ entity, oftentimes without direct support from mainline terrorist organizations. Trust relationships form into radicalized bonds that start reinforcing themselves. They see the target of their hate as objects. Hence, the truly dangerous elements of international terror are not those wayward individuals who seek membership in the organizations – but those radicalized and dynamic small groups that already have a defined mission which then desire umbrella membership in a global terrorist organization. Khalil Sheikh Mohammed formed one such mini terrorist organization, built on an idea that was grafted into al Qaeda quite effectively. The end result was 9/11.

So terrorist groups are built by incorporating sub-entities that are self-radicalized.

Cannot the same be said of small groups of independent leftists and haters of western civilization? Cannot such groups form out of a radicalized distrust of capitalism, western power, western culture, etc? How would such radicalized groups interact with international organized entities such as al Qaeda, Hezbollah, and Hamas? Can a misguided youth who rioted against WTO in Seattle find common cause with Osama bin Laden? What would the interaction look like? Could it be that such groups have formed, made contact with terror organizations, and set up planned kidnappings in an effort to ‘get their message out’? How else can the relationships be defined and presented?

In the end, the message is the same.
We hate western civilization.
We hate capitalism.
We hate power
We hate you

Watch out France!!!

Don't Invite Terror Turds to Your Wedding Party...

Re(1): 'Leadership of al Qaeda targeted in Damadola', www.SecurityWatchTower.com, C.S. Scott
Re(2): 'Hit: al Qaeda's Bomb Maker', www.MichelleMalkin.com, Michelle Malkin

Millions well spent…

To those overspending Republicans in Congress a hearty Thank You…

Thank you for buying the 10 Hellfire missiles we needed to splat Midhat Mursi, al Qaeda’s Chemical Weapon Terror Turd.

And would President Clinton have pulled the trigger? Let's see:

Nope!!!
Never Could Pull the Trigger
There are always ‘civilians’ in the area...
Let's count the dead Terror Turds of the Clinton Legacy

To the rest of the Terror Turds out there 'Watch Your Six'. And don't forget to gaze skyward every tenth of a second or so. Looks like you can’t find sanctuary anywhere. We seem to know who you are. We seem to know how to find you. We don't care much about diplomatic niceties when squishing turds in soverign nations. Too bad…

America is a very different nation from the one that ran out of Tomahawk missiles during the mighty Clinton Presidency. More like Rome doggedly tracking Hannibal after Zama than Carter telling us to wear sweaters or Clinton biting his upper lip.

Too bad for you…

Idiotarian, Moonbat, Darwin Award Contestant...

Updated (2006/01/01 1104)

2006 will be a difficult year for nominatation committees.

For example:

One would be hard pressed to determine the correct category for the first family of anti-western 'peace' activists who get their heads chopped off by some overambitious jihadist.

1. Should they be Idiotarians
2. Should they be Moonbats
3. Should they be Darwin Award contestants

I am glad I am not responsible for running end-of-year contests.


Update (2006/01/01 1104)
A friend has emailed with at least a partial solution for this quandary!!!

This enlightened individual has reminded me that Iraq will be getting safe enough to entice the vaunted media to spin their story from throughout the region. These self-same media mavens will no doubt think that the entire Middle East would benefit from their spin skills. So here goes...

If a Lefty Media Slug is killed after being kidnapped than simply look at his/her status on the various annual awards. For example, if Robert Fisk has his head removed than we are talking about an Idiotarian. George Monbiot and family would be Moonbats. And since Cindy Sheehan wrote a book nobody read, and because even the Moonbats and Idiotarians ignore her now, she may be relegated to the status of Darwin Award Contestant.

Now, if the ‘insurgent’ or ‘freedom fighter’ in question accidentally chops the cerebrum off some unknown person of peace than we can scan the articles written by award winners of various categories. If the casualty is written about more by an Idiotarian, than that individual, and those associates facing the same demise at the same event, is an Idiotarian. Likewise with Moonbats. However, one can be either an Idiotarian or a Moonbat and still be eligible for a Darwin Award.

The most conclusive evidence, however, will be the inevitable tape of the event in question. If the activists seem to believe that it is all an act to the very end, than they are Idiotarians. Conversely, if the martyr either yells ‘Alah Akbar’, ‘Go Stalin’, ‘Death to Corporatism’, ‘This is Halliburton’s doing’, or some other such nonsense than we are watching the demise of a Moonbat. A true Darwin Award Contestant would not know why she/he is tied up while a cutlass wielding fascist screams and chants Islamic slogans.

Any other illustrative help in this discussion should be incorporated in the comments. Such support would be much appreciated.

LGF: 'Robert Fisk Idiotarian of the Year 2005' balloting...

Re(1): 'Robert Fisk Idiotarian of the Year 2005', www.littlegreenfootballs.com/weblog, Charles Johnson

Here are my three selections in LittleGreenFootballs coveted ‘Robert Fisk Idiotarian of the Year 2005’ award. Like they say, ‘get out the vote’!!!

New York Times...

As stated above, it is a bit difficult to name it Idiotarian of the Year, but the fact that it is the Robert Fisk Idiotarian of the Year award aces it. Maybe some of the writers are actual Moonbats rather than Idiotarians because they have knowledge of, and aggressively drive toward, the cliff.

However, as a whole, I am completely satisfied that the writers and the editors of the NYT are generally ignorant of the topics of war and terrorism.

Too bad you did not include the uncritical readers of the NYT on your list of Idiotarians. They are the definition of Useful Idiots. Oh, never mind - just read the list (MSNBC, CBS, The Guardian, Actors, UN, and Democratic Party). It is, of course, the paper of record for Idiotarians!

Cindy Sheehan...

She started reading the New York Times after 9/11. She was especially impressed with the discussion of America's complicity in blowing itself up. Maybe some of the facts that prove President Bush destroyed the buildings with well placed barrels of Halliburton oil drums.

Her favorite writer was Jayson Blair. She can't believe that the 'Paper of Record' would allow him to leave for greener pastures without offering a significant pay raise. She can't figure out how to get online to view Englands Paper of Record - The Guardian.

In her sleep she remembers NYT articles - and other major media presentations based on 'Paper of Record' scoops - that had her son tortured in Abu Gharib, shot by Halliburton employees, forced into the military by Cheney press gangs, etc.

She is the definition of an Idiotarian. All others are shades of grey...

Rep. Jack Murtha...

He defines the Mawkish Democrat.

The NYT, MSNBC, LA Times, CBS, and the rest that follow the lead of the NYT termed him a 'Hawkish' Democrat.

He is 'Hawkish' only regarding pension benefits, weapons built in his district, clothing allowances, food allowances, social reengineering, and short conflicts executed with stand-off weapons.

After taking 18 casualties in 'Blackhawk Down' he 'convinced' President Clinton to bail ignominiously from the region. That Mawkish moment is forever eulogized in Osama bin Laden's FATWA about weak horses and paper tigers and such.

Representative Murtha is just a normal conflicted Democrat of the Vietnam era. He wants a military for the social engineering that can be accomplished through such large and influential organization. He doen't want the military to be included in combat. He wants to move our military to where the action is – Kansas. Just over the horizon, and over again, and over again, and then over again. Maybe Syria will allow us to post some troops – Iran?

He was a sleeper Idiotarian – and was activated by some droning speech John Kerry made to some progressive think tank deriding combat for anything, anything at all.

He is my final pick!

Uuuummm, Goldberg and Steyn 2006 Predictions

Re(1): 'NRO’s 2006 Crystal Ball', http://www.nationalreview.com, Editors and Writers thereof

Dear God, Noooooooooooooooo...

Jonah Goldberg

• Joe Wilson and Valerie Plame will enter talks to launch their own talk/reality show. Even after a sweeps week episode in which Wilson eats 6 pounds of yellow cake from in-between Plame's cleavage with his hands tied behind his back, he will take great offense at anyone who suggests he's a publicity hound.
  
• Abu Zarqawi will be caught alive. But he will hang himself in his cell when Reuters reports that Iraqi authorities found the director's cut of Brokeback Mountain in his portable DVD player.

Mark Steyn

• Hollywood will have another bad year following the failure of its latest critically-acclaimed masterpiece. In Broke Bank Mountin', the entire movie industry is flying in a jet to New York when a terrorist stewardess announces she's crushing their dissent by crashing the plane into the Empire State Building. Fortunately, an unemployed giant gorilla from Animal Equity is rampaging around at the top of the tower after his film career tanked when he agreed to take a challenging role in which he played the world's first gay giant gorilla and answers a personal ad in the Village Voice from a plus-sized bear. The enraged ape reaches into the sky and picks up the plane, sending the terrorist stewardess tumbling to the back of coach, where her wig falls off and she's revealed to be Dick Cheney. Industry insiders will be taken aback by the $300-million multi-Oscar-nominated flop but have high hopes for the new Spielberg movie Cycle Of Violence starring Nicole Kidman and Kate Winslet as Israeli and Palestinian unicyclists who elope after the Cirque du Soleil opening ceremony at the Italian Olympics.

2006 New Year's Predictions!!!

Re(1): 'Predictions for 2006', www.politicalfred.blogspot.com , Political Fred
Re(2): 'The Net Never Forgets', www.BoghieOnYourSix.BlogSpot.com, Me

I was going to blather about predictions for 2006 when I started surfing though my blog roll... Alas, Political Fred's synopses fired before any of my caffeine induced nodes awoke...

Predictions are fun. For example, in June 2004 I got into a tussle with someone named Julius on the 'Command Post' regarding the direction Iraq would subsequently take. So, naturally someone as cocky as I would have to review the wager at a later date in 'The Net Never Forgets'. Check out the original Command Post discussion - quite wide ranging...

So here are some aditional projections to think about:

1. Iran gets sanctioned - effectively (look at map)
2. Iraq will no longer be the major combat theater in the GWOT
3. Afghanistan will move farther away from active combat in the GWOT
4. Pakistan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt will become combat zones in the GWOT (1)
5. The Hard Left will drag the Center Left into political oblivion in America
   Senate: 58 Republicans, 42 Democrats
   House: ~235, Republicans, ~200 Democrats
   Media: Krugman and Scheer scale lifestyle downward (2)

Predictions can be dangerous - will the above post land in my 'My Flameouts' (currently empty) blogroll of shame!!!

(1) I think, however, that only Syria and possibly Pakistan will require American forces. Saudi Arabia and Egypt seem to be moving smartly forward using their 'police' forces.

(2) And there will be another huge media scandal prompted by bias and topic ignorance. How long are we going to trust the ignorant to report on the complicated - especially when their biases taint their view?

Why They Don’t Fight…

The Left does not fight because they are not at war…

It was not New York City that was attacked. It was not Washington D.C. that was attacked. It was not the Capital Building that was targeted. It was an icon of global trade and capitalism that was attacked. It was an icon of military power and leadership that was attacked. It was an icon of world political power and dominance that was attacked.

Fundamentally, we know why al Qaeda struck those targets. All Americans know. Deep in our hearts and minds. Al Qaeda struck those targets because they were icons of Western Civilization.

But they are not the respected icons of the Left’s Western Civilization. Thus, to the Left, 9/11 is an egregious crime that must be prosecuted – but not something that challenges their stilted version of our civilization.

So we get the ‘nuanced’ Munich and Syriana. We get peace marches. We get the Lefty media railing that our espionage efforts infringes on privacy rights – without any examples of such espionage infringing on our citizens rights.

Now for something completely different!!! Something unnecessary in any war since at least the birth of the twentieth century. The American public is TELLING you not to denigrate our culture by ignoring the targeted terror of certain sectors of it. We are TELLING you that there is no sophomoric equivalence between the Mossad and the PLO. We are TELLING you that we do not fight for oil, but we will fight for our ideals. We are TELLING you to respect us. Just check out the ratings of Air America and the box office returns on Syriana and Munich ( www.radioandrecords.com, www.boxofficemojo.com ). And, that is why I wrote ‘our espionage efforts’ in the preceding paragraph – something certain to cause lefties to grind their teeth. YOU have to understand that WE have to win this war.

However, if you are an Idiotarian Lefty, please understand that the next targets are yours:

• CNN
• Paris
• Toronto
• Hollywood
• Amsterdam
• San Francisco
• United Nations
• Gay Pride Parades

Radical Islamists hate the corrupting influence of soft western power as well. The best of them (al Qaeda) target not just people, but icons of our civilization. Thank God, on this Christmas Eve, that al Qaeda targeted the part of America that fights back rather than cowers down!

'The Democratic Way of War' - A Mental Image...

Re(1): 'Nelson's Medals and Decorations', www.twogreens.com

I was looking for a vibrant graphic to illustrate a mental image representing ‘The Democratic Way of War’… A way of war which pits a self-blinded and mutilated man in a life and death struggle with barbaric and inhuman enemies.

No hits… None… Nada...

You would think that the party of Vietnam, the Iran Hostage Rescue, and Mogadishu would have a cultural icon representing their war fighting prowess.

I thought I could search for it using '+"self-blinded" +"self-mutilated" +war +hero +Democratic +Party'.

That should do it!!!

Then again, I think that the Moonbat Left doesn’t think we are at war – so maybe we have to wait till there is an obvious enemy… I can only assume that 3000 murders on 9/11 were acceptable casualties in the effort to incarcerate World Court fugitives.

Looks like some enterprising artist is going to have to create the logo from scratch...

Addendum:

However, if one seeks a real blind, one-armed warrior look no farther than:

Somehow, I don’t think Admiral Horatio Nelson comes to mind as the icon of the Modern Democratic Party. Senators Kerry, Boxer, Kennedy, Durbin, and Congresscritters Pelosi, and Murtha probably don't know who Horatio Nelson was. The smarter of the Idiotarians probably think he was an oppressed, physically challenged, non-smoker who died at the hands of violent gun toting militarists…

Oh well…

Red/Blue in the Middle East!!!

Re(1): 'Daly Thoughts', Gerry Daly
Re(2): 'ECB Classic', Gerry Daly

Seeking a concise graphic demonstrating the political mood of the Middle East, I belatedly remembered Gerry Daly’s fine electoral maps leading up to the United States Presidential election.

To that end, I surmise that the Middle East ‘electoral college’ map at the end of the Clinton Legacy must have looked much like the following *:

Islamic Terror had a complete 'Crescent of Terror' stretching from Iran through Iraq to Syria/Lebanon. A financial and logistics ally was to be found within Wahabist Saudi Arabia. Egypt provided manpower, material, and moral support to the good cause. Pakistan and Afghanistan overtly trained Jihadists on a training schedule reminiscent of Marine Corps Boot Camp. Sunni al Qaeda and Shiite Hezbollah and 'secular' Bathists got along well enough for government work.








Recent polling (Iraqi parliamentary vote for a permanent government, Lebanon election, and anti-terrorist actions in Saudi Arabia) illustrate a structural shift in the Middle East ‘electoral college’.


Iraq has steadily progressed toward becoming a viable member of the civilized world. Additionally, it now has over 290,000 American trained troops which, in concert with the large coalition contingent, acts as a very strong regional blocking force countering state sponsored Islamic Terror. No longer is the 'Crescent of Terror' unbroken. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Pakistan are all fighting Islamic Terror for their own reasons - but at least they are not overt and proud sponsors of terror. Syria has been pushed out of Lebanon - which subsequently voted reasonable leadership into office. Iran is now surrounded - and very susceptible to blockade, covert operations, and overt military strike.





Please visit often to get updates. The next scheduled polling will occur in 2009 when the next Iraqi parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place. Of course, if special elections are scheduled in any of the regional nation states you can expect contemporaneous analysis on these pages.

Readers may cringe at the use of the familiar Red/Blue color coding. Some (Dean/Kerry/Pelosi/Kennedy/Kucinich/etc.) note that the overtly American cultural influence may not be sensitive to all the ‘voters’ or the region. That seeing the world in Red and Blue is simplistic and does not incorporate all the shades of grey in the region. However, I contend that you are ‘with us, or with the terrorists’. That you take the 'Cut and Run' approach to dealing with the ‘root causes’ of Islamic Terror, or you take the ‘Total Victory’ approach. All implications of this statement are known to the author!!!

* State run polls by autocratic totalitarian regimes are as notoriously useless as presidential polls by John Zogby.

None for you…

To the Hard Left,
When November 2006 rolls around please understand you will get no credit for:

• Victory in Iraq
• Democracy in Iraq
• Birth of Freedom for millions
• A Democratic Ally in the Middle East
• A Growing GDP
• Full Employment
• A Shrinking Deficit

You have painted yourselves, and the decrepit Democratic Party, into a corner where predictions of doom and gloom die an inglorious and embarrassing death. The internet, with its ability to store the written word, the telling sound byte, and the irrefutable video clip will not reflect well on your ignorant and silly clique. You will be forgiven, but not forgotten. The web will destroy any attempt by any future Nostradamus diviners in the media to recreate your legacy. Their interpretation of Dean/Kerry/Kennedy/Pelosi/Murtha quatrains will fail miserably in comparison with contemporary discussion by the likes of Fernandez, Roggio, and Mixed Humor…

I now give you nothing, ever…

You ARE a waste of time and space...

You get NO credit for the birth of freedom in the Middle East; and the integration of those millions into the community of civilized nations.

Enjoy your decades in the wilderness…

I know this entry is forever, as are this, and this, and this, and this, and this, and this…

Those are mine; see ‘My Favorite Posts’ for a small set of fine projections from primary sources…

Mighty Chinese Armada spotted rounding South Korean peninsula!!!

Re(1): 'The ten-foot tall midget', BelmontClub, Wretchard TC

A vast armada of Chinese coastal patrol boats and freighters was spotted rounding the South Korean peninsula - heading into the open ocean. Satellite surveillance photos show thousands or millions or billions of armed Chinese Army soldiers on the decks of the freighter armada. This is, apparently, a strong and unbeatable military response to America’s very aggressive condemnation of the recent Guangdong Province Windmill massacre.

Sources fear that this fleet is a vanguard attack force expected to strike the beaches of California. The Chinese Armada was moving at the rather brisk pace of six knots when last seen. South Korean, Japanese, and American Air Force assets in the region are warily watching its progress – but are reluctant to attack a motley collection of slow moving freighters. At this pace the potential strike force will require three weeks to reach the west coast of the United States.

As a precaution, the United States is vectoring three Nimitz class carriers and battle groups into the convoy's path. These carrier battle fleets will be in position within three days. Military officials are calling this Operation Red Dawn Overwatch. Sources inside the Pentagon are rather incredulous about this overt military action by the Chinese government. Privately, they express concern that aggressive American action against this force would result in international condemnation and nationwide peace marches. Army sources fear that it will be too late to do anything if the soldiers aboard the freighters off load in San Francisco, Los Angeles, Portland, and/or Seattle. International ANSWER rallies are being organized in each of these ports.

In response, Democrats are generating a cohesive plan in opposition to the Administration. Representative Murtha recommends ‘strategically redeploying our ground forces to Iraq to avoid unnecessary casualties’. Deeply emotional, he lamented the potential loss of American lives if a plane or ship crashes into a Chinese freighter. His strongest concern is that the war will last weeks and weeks. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi came out swinging in strong support for Murtha’s strategy. During a speech at the Cindy Sheehan Peace House, Former Presidential candidate Senator Kerry brazenly challenged the Administration, demanding UN meetings and international conferences. Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean commented that:

this war cannot be won, in fact we have already lost it. We always lose
wars. There are billions of Chinese in this word, and they all seem real mad at
us. This Administration can’t solve everything through military
action.

Many Democrats privately worry that a defeatist attitude regarding defending American cities and soil might further emphasize a perception that Democrats are ‘weak on defense’. They hearken back to President Carter who boycotted the Moscow Olympics as the strong response to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Senator Harkin strongly supports boycotting the Chinese Olympics in a strong show of American resolve.

Diplomatic efforts are being made to determine the military intent of this incursion.

Three Conjectures – Revisited…

Re(1): 'Donald Rumsfeld on Iraq', BelmontClub, Wretchard TC
Re(2): ‘Three Conjectures’, BelmontClub, Wretchard TC
Re(3): ‘Carnage and Culture’, http://www.amazon.com/, Book Reviews
Re(4): ‘The Pentagon’s New Map’, Thomas Barnett
Re(5): ‘The Blitz Comes to London’, BelmontClub, Wretchard TC
Re(6): 'Tribes', EjectEjectEject, William Whittle
Re(7): 'National Strategy for Victory in Iraq', http://www.whitehouse.gov
Re(8): 'Strategic overview', http://denbeste.nu, Den Beste
Re(9): 'The Rise, Peak, Decline and Defeat of Iraq's Insurgency', SecurityWatchTower, Mixed Humor
Re(10): 'Winning the War on Terror', BoghieOnYourSix, Me

In ‘Three Conjectures’ Wretchard postulates that a repeatable WMD strike by Islamic Terror would result in the complete destruction of Islam…

To summarize:

Conjecture 1: Terrorism has lowered the nuclear threshold.

the nuclear threshold against a terrorism may be crossed once they get the capability to attack with weapons of mass destruction. Unlike the old early warning systems, designed to gauge Soviet intent, the intelligence systems of the War on Terror are meant to measure capability. The relevant Cold War question was 'do they intend to use the Bomb?'. In the War on Terror, the relevant question is simply 'do they have the Bomb?' This puts the nuclear threshold very low.

Conjecture 2: Attaining WMDs will destroy Islam

The so-called strengths of Islamic terrorism: fanatical intent; lack of a centralized leadership; absence of a final authority and cellular structure guarantee uncontrollable escalation once the nuclear threshold is crossed. Therefore the 'rational' American response to the initiation of terrorist WMD attack would be all out retaliation from the outset.

Conjecture 3: The War on Terror is the 'Golden Hour' -- the final chance

It is supremely ironic that the survival of the Islamic world should hinge on an American victory in the War on Terror, the last chance to prevent that terrible day in which all the decisions will have already been made for us.

An element Wretchard does not point out in this prescient discussion revolves around ‘the Western Way of War’. In ‘Carnage and Culture’ (published August 14, 2001) , Victor Davis Hanson convincingly postulates a number of conjectures as well:

Conjecture 1: The West can, and does, fight on the enemies turf.

While Eastern modeled autocracies can, and do, strike in the heart of western polities their ability to export war is not sustainable and not conclusive. Easterns autocracies fundamentally fight a raiding style of battle emphasizing face and honor. Conversely, the technologically and economically and socially advanced West shoves the war to the heart of the enemy and seeks to tear that life sustaining organ out of the vanquished – permanently.

Conjecture 2: Once aroused, Democracies Fight Total War

an approach to battle that has been evolving since the time of the ancient Greeks, and that now involves applying maximum discipline and violence at the point of engagement in order to annihilate, not merely defeat, an opponent. William Holmes, Amazon book review of ‘Carnage and Culture’

and...

the direct action model of warfare creates a ruthlessness, a directness, and a constant search for the decisive battle, which Hanson argues, is peculiarly western. Thus in the second world war Marshall argued for the direct frontal assault on German occupied Europe as the correct search for the decisive battle. Newt Gingrich, Amazon book review of ‘Carnage and Culture’

Conjecture 3: The West can, and does, export its values.

Democracies rarely fight with one another. Looking in the crystal ball it is difficult to envision a conflict with democratic Germany, Italy, or Japan. Likewise, there does not seem to be intercene conflict with Australia, Canada, and France. Pax Americana is predicated on the belief that America can, and does, export its values via soft and hard power. Hard power is visible in the military component in the Global War on Terror. Soft power is visible in the growing democratic realities of Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebenon, Jordan, and the Middle East – not to mention the expansion of ideas through mediums that cannot be controlled by the worlds autocracies (Internet, FAXs, cell phones, etc.).

Thus, the west is expanding the core and shrinking the gap. If the idiotic Left and moronic paleocons can be marginalized and/or ignored for a few short months or years the wheel of progress will have rotated beyond the ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. As Wretchard states in ‘The Blitz Comes to London’:

Insular Britain, which fought a long terrorist war against the IRA is one of the hardest targets in the Western world. There is no reason, in principle, why similar attacks cannot happen on a larger or deadlier scale in some American or Australian city, less prepared than London -- or indeed anyplace in the world -- such as Thailand, India or the Philippines -- where they have happened already. As long as Islamic fundamentalist terror exists danger will exist. Liberals may believe that accommodation, appeasement or flattery can change this correspondence. But terrorism will remind the world as often as it needs reminding that there isn't room enough on the planet for Islamic terror and civilization.

Faster. Please.

Solutions can be gleaned within the valuable discussions taking place in these references - and many others. Basically, they fall into two categories:

Wretchard's 3rd Conjecture, as summarized in:

1. 'National Strategy for Victory in Iraq', Bush Administration
2. 'Strategic overview', Den Beste
3. 'The Rise, Peak, Decline and Defeat of Iraq's Insurgency', Mixed Humor
4. 'Winning the War on Terror', Me

or, regretfully, Wretchard's Second Conjecture - which I postulate does not, in actuality, require a repeatable WMD attack capability by Islamic Terror. Prior even to the possession of WMD; weak, indecisive, dithering, and/or corrupt leadership by the West rolls the wheel in this regrettable direction.

Faster, Please...

The Party of Nothing…

Our nation’s polity depends on an adversarial two party system.

We are now a one party state. The only party is the Republican Party. The Democratic Party is all over but the crying. There is no debate from a viable Left. There is no viable Left.

Can one imagine a Howard Dean, John Kerry, Nancy Pelosi, or John Murtha as the leader of a great nation at war? I am not even whining about their current wailing. I cannot envision these leaders of a pathetic clique ever convincing this great nation that anything at all is worth fighting for. Nothing is worth fighting for.

Can one envision Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, or Charles Schumer as leaders of a great nation requiring clear, strong, and decisive leadership? For years now they seem evasive, opportunistic, and conflicted. Nothing they say is believable. Nothing is worth standing for.

Will Americans vote for people they cannot trust, for people who stand for nothing, for people so conflicted they defend nothing? I think not, and increasingly so.

A New Favorite

Re(1): 'The Rise, Peak, Decline and Defeat of Iraq's Insurgency', SecurityWatchTower.com, Mixed Humor

Mixed Humor tracks four distinct phases of Iraq's insurgency.

To tempt the six or so folks who actually seem to have this blog in their favorites:

Ultimately 2006 is poised to be a transitional year with more achievements and successes, and more work remains. Certainly there will be violence in Iraq for a long period of time, but the tide has tipped on an insurgency that offers no political alternatives, is experiencing inner divisions between the different groups, has suffered tremendous losses of key leadership and other personnel, and is increasingly seeing their areas of operations challenged.

Tremendous consolidation of coalition/insurgent/civilian statistics...

This article obviously belongs in the 'My Favorite Posts'...

Very Nice Summary...

Recommended Reading List:

'The End of the Beginning', BelmontClub, Wretchard TC
'The Battle for Mosul IV', MichaelYon, Michael Yon
'Oh Bla Di, Oh Bla Da', BoghieOnYourSix, Me

Enjoy...

NewsSplats!!!

Re(1): 'Two al Qaeda leaders killed in seperate incidents', SecurityWatchTower, Mixed Humor
Re(2): 'The Unstoppable IED', BelmontClub, Wretchard TC
Re(3): 'The Marines in Fallujah', HughHewitt, Hugh Hewitt

1. Americans Bombing Insurgents in Pakistan, Civilian Casualties…

‘Human Rights Watch’ is seeking donations of computers and word processors from pacifists the world over. Modern equipment is needed to publicly decry President Bush’s use of assassination in the war on terror… Additionally, America is once again not respecting the sovereign borders of a sovereign nation. As we all know, al Qaeda is in Afghanistan, not Pakistan. Scores, I mean tens, actually ones, of civilian young Arab jihadi innocents die in attack. Other conflicted, but certain, Leftists honorably change their 2001 written opinions that President Bush should have sent assassination squads into Afghanistan to kill Osama bin Laden - and only Osama bin Laden. It is now believed that targeted assassination is just as wrong as an illegal and immoral war. Find another way, but not in our name.

2. Insurgent Collapses Building on Self after Russians Scare Him

“Abu Omar Mohammed bin Abdullah al-Saif, a Saudi al Qaeda commander in Chechnya” committed ritual, heroic, some would say Hannibalistic, suicide by exploding a piece of random ordinance he was carrying with him (for whatever reason). A Chechen doctor carrying a Kalashnikov rifle factually stated that the building was an orphanage in which a wedding party taking place. Thousands of women and children and Abu himself died in the conflagration.

3. Americans Victims of Super Weapons, Have NO Answer…

A roadside bomb kills ten Marines, wounds eleven. A coerced informant tip results in a strike from out of the blue - without giving the jihadis a chance to defend themselves. Thousands of innocent insurgents and acquaintances die every month as a result of the cowardly use of missiles, artillery, and other advanced weaponry. To combat American hegemony, France is seeking UN support in outlawing the use of missiles, rockets, advanced radios, aircraft, aircraft carriers, helicopters, armored vehicles, and military spending in excess of 1% of GDP. If even the French can’t compete in high tech warfare, what are we to say about our insurgent competitors?

Everyday, remind yourself that your nation, country, and civilization are at war...

Must Reads...

The most interesting reads of the day...

1. Wretchard at the Belmont Club discusses the concept of NetWar... This is a bit of sarcasm:

If technology has undermined the bureaucratic state, then the intellectual heirs of Westphalia, with their visions of supranational institutions will have truly confused the problem for the solution. In the face of increasing attacks by networks of criminals and terrorists, their answer will be bigger, more international bureaucracies. The United Nations will become the smallest unit capable of fighting modern terrorism. And some would call that good.

The Left, fighting swarms of plankton with leviathans...


2. And, to make optimal use of your soft power folks have to show up and be persuaded...

For years the United Nations presented itself as a saintly organization bent on saving the whales when it wasn't preserving world peace. Reality fell somewhat short of this ideal, and the process of disillusionment is always painful to watch. In a way, even those who didn't believe in the fake labels can feel a sense of loss at watching the hope, and then the belief fade from the faces of those who have been suckered. The truth will set you free; but first it will make you miserable.

Where is John Clese when you need him...

Oh, that's right, I saw him writing the lyrics of 'Brave Sir Murtha' on a napkin - while Cindy Sheehan clopped coconuts together to a lively toon...

Winning the War on Terror...

Re(1): 'The Three Conjectures', BelmontClub, Wretchard TC
Re(2): 'Strategic Overview', USS Clueless, Steven den Beste
Re(3): 'Strategic overview: Annotating and updating Den Beste ', TigerHawk, TigerHawk
Re(4): 'Who's on First', BelmontClub, Wretchard TC

I have asked the question regarding Iraq…

What will winning look like?

So, here is the beginning of an answer:

1. First of all we must accept that Iraq is a focal point in the region. The eyes of modern Islam turn to Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Iran for guidance. Prior to 2003 there was an axis of Sunni militancy consisting of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Syria that fermented terror to expand their variant of Islam on the edge of the proverbial sword. Iran competed aggressively to promote their own variant. Please review a map to see the geographical significance of Iraq. Please note the annual pilgrimages to Najaf as a demonstration of the religious significance of Iraq. Please study your texts on Babylon, Asyria, and the Abbasid Caliphate centered in Baghdad as examples of historical significance.

2. Therefore, to compete in this war of ideas we have to either destroy the culture of militant Islam or promote an alternative idea. In this there is no grey area. The opposition fired the starting gun decades ago, gave us a punch we could not ignore, and goaded us into the field in a manner they thought they could control. A sad mistake on their part.

3. Now a guess… Is there anyone out there that doesn’t think the American government didn’t develop a plan to deal with Islamic Terrorism when/if it hit us hard? These plans were probably initiated under Nixon, goobered up under the Carter foolishness, reinitiated in the Reagan era, structured under Bush I, conflated and conflicted during the brilliant Clinton foreign affairs administration, and were in the process of being regenerated under W.

Therefore:

Maybe, just maybe, these administrations wanted to avoid a massively destructive and culturally caustic Total War. They, and all of us, wanted to resolve this conflict in a way that does not kill hundreds of millions (mostly Arab civilians) and destroy our open society. Thus Iraq…

• We needed to break the Crescent of Terror
• We want to give Iraq the chance to Reform Islam
• And provide a Shining City on the Hill for the rest of the Region

We will know when we are winning, or have won, when Iraq starts pulling other regional entities out of the 7th Century and into the 20th Century. When those entities can no longer bitch and whine about Israel and the Great Satan. When those ‘citizens’ form consensual governments and end their subjugation under regional ‘strong men’. When the regions economies are expanding rather than contracting. When those basic constructs are visible we will know we have moved forward in this conflict.

My contention is that this reformation is occurring now. My contention is that W struck as Churchill would have struck – before the cancer spread to the point where the patient had to be killed and the doctor wounded. To the Left, are you proud of Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Dresden, Stalin’s gulags, and the Iron Curtain? Dithering in the 1930s resulted in invasive surgery in the 1940s. Back then it was the Paleolithic Right, now it is the Conflicted Left. Do you want your generation to be remembered as we remember Charles Lindberg, and Henry Ford, and even grand pappa Bush. I hope not...

Note: Iraq is merely a theater in the Global War on Militant Islam. Winning in Iraq or Afghanistan or Indonesia does not imply total and complete victory. Our goal is, and should remain, Total Victory.

Mawkish Murtha Quits Again...

Did the 'defense hawk' Congressman Murtha promote the inglorious, and with 20/20 hindsight, exceedingly dangerous retreat from Somalia in 1993...

I can hear the 'Brave Sir Robin' songs being scratched onto napkins - preening about the exploits of Mawkish Sir Murtha.

The Left in this country is in trouble when a Monty Python skit comes to mind when they trot out their war heroes and 'defense hawks' in a time of conflict...

Update (2005/11/24 0746):
Another thought. 'Mawkish Sir Murtha' can be sung to the Democrats favorite marshall music - 'Brave Sir Robin' by Monty Python. The video could portray one of our ignorant, uneducated, low skilled, poverty stricken louts that are coerced into our ‘volunteer’ military as the war horse (the chap with the coconut shells).

Visiting and Re-Visiting the Wayback Machine...

Re(1): 'Strategic Overview', USS Clueless, Steven den Beste
Re(2): 'Strategic overview: Annotating and updating Den Beste ', TigerHawk, TigerHawk

The above resources are critical to understanding our times...

There is NO War in France…

Re(1): 'Once in France', The Belmont Club, Wretchard TC
Re(1): 'Do You Hear the People Sing?', The Belmont Club, Wretchard TC

Right Now!!!???

Smart people are using hyperbole to describe the conflict in France.

To the annoyance of both Francophiles and Leftist acolytes of the Fifth Republic, the actions in France at most still seem to be a battle of opportunity for the local disaffected. We do not know if it has been initiated, or is in the process of being assumed, by Islamist forces. It is a misuse of the word ‘war’ to ascribe it as such. Since the Global War on Terror has been ongoing for 20 - 40 years, and since the conflict is truly global, and since Europe has previously been a front in the conflict, we must watch for an opportunistic attempt to make France a Front or a Theater of the War. France is the Sickest Man in Europe - but she is by far not the only ill patient in the region. The problem for France is that the assumption by Islamists can occur quickly - and that the French have dithered in normal Leftist indecisiveness. Islamist forces can now capitalize on the power vacuum opening up in large swaths of France and Europe.

European appeasement in the GWOT may, in fact, lead to the war being fought here (as in Europe) rather than there (as in the Middle East). Europe may come to regret their inability to project force, but she may be saved by a stronger internal police than exists in America. The frightening thing about this rioting is that France's 'Fifth Republic' may fall in something as small as a regional battle. It may not take a theater campaign to collapse the surrender monkeys. That fact is as sad as it is frightening - and it harkens to a point behind Wretchard's point, that France fell to Nazism as well as to the German army.

If France falls, the pecking order will be Spain, then Italy, then Germany. To date, however, we have no proof that militant Islam has the ability to use this uprising. The Anglosphere may have destroyed this capability. Thus, America may once again save French bacon in a war between good and evil.

We shall soon see how organized militant Islam is...

We may soon see how militaristic the West is...

This is what President Bush strove to avoid...

Saddam in a Box???

Re(1): 'The Third Airplane', Belmont Club, TC Wretchard
Re(2): 'UNSCOM: Chronology of Main Events', www.un.org, UNSCOM report

A response to a poster named AK at the BelmontClub:

AK,

Your first post stated: “Why was his nuclear program apparently shelved in 1994?”

Here is the United Nations official documentation regarding UNSCOM…

After your date of compliance:

8 Aug 1995: Iraq withdraws its third biological Full, Final and Complete Disclosure and admits a far more extensive biological warfare programme than previously admitted, including weaponization. Iraq also admits having achieved greater progress in its efforts to indigenously produce long-range missiles than had previously been declared. Iraq provides UNSCOM and the IAEA with large amounts of documentation, hidden on a chicken farm ostensibly by Hussein Kamel, related to its prohibited weapons programmes which subsequently leads to further disclosures by Iraq concerning the production of the nerve agent VX and Iraq's development of a nuclear weapon.

Sep 1997: Iraq provides fifth Full, Final and Complete Disclosure for its prohibited biological weapons programme. An international panel of experts is convened in New York to discuss Iraq’s declaration. The panel unanimously finds Iraq’s declaration to be incomplete, inadequate and technically flawed.

Oct 1997: UNSCOM completes the destruction of additional, large quantities of chemical weapons related equipment and precursors chemicals. Iraq had previously denied that part of the equipment had been used for CW production. Only in May 1997, on the basis of UNSCOM's investigations, did Iraq admit that some of the equipment had indeed been used in the production of VX.

8 Apr 1998: The report of the biological weapons TEM is transmitted to the Council (S/1998/308). As with the other TEMs, the experts unanimously conclude that Iraq’s declaration on its biological weapons programme is incomplete and inadequate.

9 Sep 1998: Security Council resolution 1194 (1998) unanimously condemns Iraq’s decision to suspend cooperation with UNSCOM, terming Iraq’s actions a totally unacceptable contravention of Iraq’s obligations; demands Iraq rescind its decision and decides not to conduct the 60-day sanctions reviews until Iraq does so and the Commission reports to the Council that it is satisfied that it has been able to exercise its full range of activities, including inspections.

31 Oct 1998: Iraq announces that it will cease all forms of interaction with UNSCOM and its Chairman and to halt all UNSCOM’s activities inside Iraq, including monitoring. The Security Council, in a statement to the press, unanimously condemn Iraq’s decision to cease all cooperation with UNSCOM.

4 Nov 1998: The Executive Chairman informs the Council (S/1998/1032) that, as a result of Iraq’s actions, the Commission is not in a position to provide the Council with any level of assurance of Iraq’s compliance with its obligations not to retain and not to reestablish proscribed activities.

16 Dec 1998: The Special Commission withdraws its staff from Iraq.

When you talk about ‘Containing Iraq’ and ‘Keeping Saddam in a Box’ (not your quotes – but your concept) I would recommend that you review the official United Nations webpage chronology regarding the topic on which you place so much confidence. Try using the find feature to look for such phases as: ‘denies access’, ‘Final and Complete Disclosure’, and ‘nuclear’. In it’s 7 ½ years of existence we had five ‘Final and Complete Disclosures’ of biological weapons, three ‘Final and Complete Disclosures’ of chemical weapons, and three ‘Final and Complete Disclosures’ of illegal missile development. All those ‘Final and Complete Disclosures’ were deemed false. We found a rather robust – if temporarily hidden and dormant – nuclear program. And finally, with the Oil-For-Food revelations noted in Wretchard’s post we have both a bypass of the Saddam in a Box strategy and an aggressive bribing of security council members to drop those sanctions on which your concept rests. Look back in the large newspapers even as late as early 2003 to review the positions of France, Russia, and Germany regarding the sanctions that both apparently (not really) kept Saddam contained and starved the children of Iraq.

I, personally, was not confident in those measures then, and I would be very distrustful of a Saddam popped out of the box now…

A New word gets admitted into the Oxford English Dictionary...

Re(1): 'Why are we Borking Harriet Miers', BoghieOnYourSix, Boghie

Borking...

The Oxford English Dictionary has nominated the verb 'Borking' as a potential new English word in the 2006 edition of the dictionary. This was a close decision, but the fact that both major American political parties have now behaved in a way that defines the term 'to Bork' swayed the committee.

The committee would like to express appreciation to the blogs (another recent addition to the Oxford English Dictionary!!!) NationalReviewOnline.com and ConfirmThem.com. Without their expressive dialog the term 'to Bork' would have remained unviable as an entry into the Oxford English Dictionary!

Thank You

Believe it or not...

Re(1): 'Iraq: Terrorist Training Ground, Killing Field, or Both?', The Fourth Rail, Bill Roggio

But I think there is nothing for me to say...

Unlike the chattering media class, I do not have to bloviate about something I know nothing about just to take space on either dead trees or underutilized air space...

To me, the only thing worth writing about is something I am having trouble describing. Look at this link regarding the make-up of our foreign terrorist adversaries who have been dispatched to their 72 raisins: http://billroggio.com/archives/2005/10/iraq_terrorist.php

Of interest is a pattern that seems to imply that al Qaeda is trying to cycle their foreign fighters. That is, they may be attempting to recruit and transport personnel from discrete regions. From the data, it looks as if much of this process has been destroyed. Many of the formerly successful recruiting regions seem to be drying up.

Have to put much more thought to this...

Wrechard warming up his Gregorian Chant!!

Again, I will not paraphrase the perfect:

Richard Fernandez: 'The End of the Beginning'

Barbarians Defeated...

It will be interesting to trace the path of the bin Ladens and Zarqawis over the next few months and years…

Hannibal committed suicide in Syria after the Romans doggedly tracked him from one barbarian kingdom to another – conquering barbarian lands, coercing barbarian kings, and always on the heels of their quarry…

Hannibal died in the most graceful way available to him – an ignominious and lonely death by his own hand…

Hannibal’s death was ignoble and forgotten to history.

In Mosul, we have a Gregorian Chant!

I will not paraphrase the perfect:

Michael Yon: 'The Battle for Mosul IV'

Oh Bla di, oh bla da...

Re(1): 'Letter to Zarqawi', The Belmont Club, Wretchard TC
Re(2): 'U.S. intercepts al Zawahiri to al Zarqawi memo', The Security Watchtower, Mixed Humor
Re(3): 'Training the Iraqi Army - Revisited, Again', The Fourth Rail, Bill Roggio
Re(4): 'Iraqi Troop Strength', The Security Watchtower, Mixed Humor

The following is a comment I wrote in the Belmont club responding to legit concerns of another commenter. I am thinking that smart people are hearing the hum and chant of song deep in the tunnels of the ballpark:

1) AQ is hurting enough in Iraq to be willing to change its tactics. Obviously due to the combat losses but evidently due to the Muslim reaction to their butchery.

It will be difficult to change the dynamics in Iraq. The only opportunity that I can see is in the Iraq/Iran border region where the Brit have been playing the ‘soft’ hand. I think that the Brits are changing tactics as I write. I do not think al-Zarqawi has much influence in that region.

2) They are patient. Much more so than are we. Knowing full well that no matter how many young jihadis die for their cause, new generations and half generations of their willing minions are being redied in the madrasses of Pakistan and Iran.

We have been patient for 4 ½ years. President Bush is a doggedly patient man – see the caterwauling about the Supreme Court nomination. See the effect the caterwauling of the 2004 election had on our activities – minimal at best. See the recent polling in the Middle East. Note that our valiant and brilliant enemy has WRITTEN into his enemy list the nation states that support his terror campaign. That was a terrible mistake.

3) They still have a chain of command in place. Nothing like the structured environment of western armies but authority from top to bottom nonetheless.

The fact that we apparently got the message and al-Zarqawi didn’t signifies a rather weak chain of command. Zarqawi’s response via media outlets demonstrates the same. The fact that Zawahiri is asking for support and information likewise points to something.

To those who seem to think this is a realpolitik conflict, and thus we will bail out ASAP and leave the region to strong men with a gangster mentality please note: We have been in the fight for 4 ½ years. Zarqawi has no influence in the north or south or east of Baghdad. His influence is rapidly degrading in the riverine region to the west of Baghdad. His bosses have just placed a long term challenge to his regional state sponsor. And, the Iraqi government – with a military trained by the best martial force in the world – is threatening that same state sponsor with repercussions. And, oil exports are now consistent and to levels approaching pre-1991 levels. And, most importantly, Zarqawi is being heavily out recruited mano-i-mano.

The Fat Lady is singing.

Unlike most leaders, President Bush will press the effort of eradicating al-Zarqawi’s structure completely. There will be nothing left of it. At that point, with a battle trained Iraqi military, do you find Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and the southern ‘insurgents’ to be the strong horse? I would hate to be them. You have to know when you are winning so you can start planning your next battle in the Global War on Terror.

Thus, there is a bit of background hum to this battle, there is some serious practicing in Baghdad, and there is a full throated roar in Afghanistan. None of this ends the Global War on Terror!

Why are we borking Harriet Miers?

To all Brahmin Court Watchers…

Try the following the next time you appear on TV:

"Harriet Mier's America is a land in which women would be forced into back-alley
abortions, blacks would sit at segregated lunch counters, rogue police could
break down citizens' doors in midnight raids, children could not be taught about
evolution"

It is a clever adaptation of an argument based on ignorance, politics, elitism, and emotion.

It worked once, it might, just might, work again!!!

We absolutely require more Brahmin Constitutional Scholars on our Court!!!

Building a Supreme Team...

Re(1): 'Do You Trust Him?', www.hughhewitt.com, Hugh Hewitt
Re(2): 'The Miers nomination: a safe play from Dubya's standpoint', www.beldar.blogs.com, Beldar

UPDATE (2005/10/04 0822): How many Brahmins do you want???

Like most conservatives I was waiting for the name L-U-T-T-I-G to emanate from the lips of our faithful servant and President.

Harriet Miers – Who the h*ll is that!!!

A quick read of the conservative blogs provided some understanding but an awful lot of hot air. Those who do not know her wanted a big name and an Armageddon. Those who do know her expect her to be a fine justice that brings much to this Court. Here are my first impressions:

1. Mrs. Miers will bring balance to an Ivory Towers Supreme Court. While Chief Justice Roberts is a good man, with a fine judicial temperament, my one concern is that those who occupy that rarified air forget what the rest of us breathe. Mrs. Miers will present the ‘common’ reality of ‘common law’ interpretations by the Supreme Court. She will force the unintentional consequences of Supreme Court action to be intentional. Based on Beldar’s post, it is apparent that she has spent the better part of her lifetime battling those consequences.
   
2. Mrs. Miers was selected based on actions known to the President. She was not interviewed; she answered the President’s questions over the span of a decade or more. She answered his questions without being coerced to sell herself. There is no doubt in the President’s mind as to how she will function on the Court. There is no doubt in my mind how she will function on the Court.
   
3. The confirmation hearing process will be de-Borked. She will have to answer questions posed by both Senators Leahy and Hatch, by Durbin and Sessions, and by Feinstein and Kyl. She will not pass through the Judiciary Committee without presenting her case to all Senators on that committee. Much like President Bush shaking the status quo on illegal immigration, the nomination of Harriet Miers forces controversial issues to the forefront. Issues that to this point are mere talking points and stalking horses. That dance is done, that song is over. Chief Justice Roberts was the last and best dancer to that tune. I commend the President for this.

I believe the Conservatives who have fought for three decades to groom ideas and nominees were understandably flummoxed. President Bush did not call their ‘closer’ into the game. Instead, I think he looked at the current, and near future, chemistry of the Court and made an incredibly difficult decision. He freaked his base, but provided a grounding to his United States Supreme Court.

Enjoy the political season…

Enjoy his third pick…

UPDATE (2005/10/04 0822):
Bush to Conservatives - How many Brahmins do you want on the Supreme Court? I think we have enough Constitutional scholars; it might be time to select someone from the real world...

A Challenge to those protesting the GWOT in Iraq!!!

A Challenge to those protesting the GWOT in Iraq:

Where do you want to fight the Global War on Terror?

It is a simple question – and one that must be answered before one can knowledgeably discuss the situation in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the greater Middle East. It is a question that one must answer before one argues following points like 1) Is the war being fought effectively, 2) Are we concentrating enough on the defense of the homeland, and 3) is the United States a virulent empire?

The Administration has made it clear that they desire to fight the war over there.

I ask you to find another region in the world in which to fight this declared war. Please use the comments section.