Fiscal Flameout???

Re(1): 'G.W. Bush - Our Third Worst President', Liberal and Loving It, Author
Re(2): Comment by ‘NoVA Democrat/James Martin’, www.vaprogressive.com
Re(3): Comment by Anonymous

Note: Check out www.vaprogressive.com. It is a very attractive and viable site for progressive policies. That is, he ain’t no Moonbat.

Note: The ‘My Flameouts’ link section is intended to be a spot where stuff I have written proves to be inaccurate. I think all bloggers should have such a section. On this topic, the 'March 2006 Treasury Budget Statement' will provide a good mid term review. If my economic and budget projections prove to be wildly inaccurate I will enthusiastically place this and the other posts on this subject in that link list!!!

Comments were provided to my response in a ‘Liberal and Loving It’ post. Here is where I am coming from:

To answer the comment by ‘NoVA Democrat/James Martin’:

Like President Clinton’s tax increase, President Bush’s tax cut was retroactive – i.e. it was passed in mid-2003, but took effect in January 2003 (CY2003). Therefore, for average slugs like me and you the adjustment was noted on April 15, 2004. That is why I use the FY2004 Federal Budget numbers – whose fiscal year begins on October 1 and ends September 30. So, FY2004 started 2003/10/01 and ended 2004/09/30.

Since FY2004 the CBO budget deficit numbers have been wildly inaccurate. They do not incorporate the economic growth that occurs when freed capital is invested in the economy. They do not incorporate the changes that occur as a result of Dividend and Capital Gains tax cuts. In the case of dividends the new tax code resulted in the reemergence of dividend investing – and dividends are paid by companies with taxable profits, unlike capital gains. Finally, they do not incorporate the personal changes in behavior that occur when a tax seems ‘fairer’ (in my example, I dramatically changed my behavior after Clinton’s tax increase by carefully reviewing every deduction and break I could get – now, I am far less likely to spend the time).

Additionally, the investment losses of CY2001/2 have been largely written off by the gains since. Thus, investors have begun to pay capital gains taxes toward the US Treasury.

And, yes, my numbers are ratios and estimates from mid-year treasury numbers and CBO reviews and GDP growth and unemployment numbers. I would not call them super-scientific, but I am willing to risk a ‘Flameout’ on them given that America doesn’t get a city wiped out via a WMD attack or something (I’ll even accept another Katrina event in FY2006).

I have won bets of lunches and cold hard cash by wagering on the deficit numbers of the past two years.

So here is a table of the progress being made:

Fiscal Year	GDP	GDP Growth	Unemployment	CBO	Me	Actual
FY2004	11,743	4.2%	5.5%	520	390	412
FY2005	12,479	3.5%	5.1%	427	325	318
FY2006	13,400	3.5%	4.8%	423	286

So, my questions are:
Why do you trust the CBO numbers?
Since the tax cuts, they have been off by more than a 100 Billion.

Where do you think we are heading?
The stock market is growing rapidly this year (Dividends and Capital Gains).
The Corporate Income tax revenues have been growing rapidly.
The Personal Income tax revenues have been growing rapidly.
And, wages are finally growing for all parts of the economic spectrum.

To answer Anonymous:

You are 100% correct, President Bush and everyone else are not guaranteeing a balanced budget.. In the 2004 election campaign President Bush promised to cut the annual budget deficit in half by his last budget – which will be FY2009. Given that he was using the CBO estimate of 520 Billion for FY2004 that means that he only has to cut the annual deficit to 260 Billion by FY2009. We ran a deficit of 318 Billion last fiscal year. What are the odds that he will shave 58 Billion in three years – pretty good, or impossible?

In addition, fiscal conservatives are now pressuring Congress to reduce spending and wipe out earmark abuses. The Congress and the Administration will not be able to blow this off for three years.

Now, let us adjust the above table a bit to make something clear:

Fiscal Year	GDP	Tax Revenue	Deficit	% of GDP	% of Tax Revenue
FY2004	11,743	1,798	412	3.51%	22.91%
FY2005	12,479	2,053	318	2.55%	15.49%
FY2006	13,400	2,285	286	2.13%	12.52%

Don’t get me wrong… Borrowing even 10% of your annual total revenues to cover expenses is very, very bad and unsustainable… But, the numbers are going in the right direction.

So, here is a long term bet… Given that a city is not wiped out via terrorism or war I think it is a relatively safe bet that the annual deficit will be wiped out by the rapid, but sustainable, growth of the economy. GDP growth of 3.5% to 4.5% is considered sustainable – the dot.com boom growth of 6% - 7% was not.

Response to 'Liberal and Loving It' - Ranking the American Presidents

Re(1): 'G.W. Bush - Our Third Worst President', Liberal and Loving It, Author

I ran across this blog entry from a completely unrelated post in the Indepundit. I cannot figure out why there was a trackback to Scott's site from his/her libby site, but I just had to find out. Whoopie, check this out:

G.W. Bush is clearly third. I cannot think of another president (other than the two above) that has done anywhere near as much damage to this country. And unlike the first two, his ineptitude has damage many other countries - although that may be more a function of the global economy. (And Smoot-Hawley under Hoover did help worsen the global depression). Taking away the political differences I have with Bush and concentrating just on his competence we have:

• He has trashed the U.S. economy. The economy has not grown because of his economic program, but in spite of it. Clinton left him the biggest surplus in history and he has turned it into a series of ever larger record deficits. He has made fixed entitlements worse with his drug plan while failing to address the biggest problems with existing entitlements (medicare & medicaid) and with social security had a proposal that would have put people more at risk while increasing cost. It's a sad day when the Democrats are the party of fiscal sanity.

Maybe he/she never thought we were at war, maybe he/she thinks we already won the war, or maybe he/she thinks the Clinton era DOD budget was just fine. Similarly, maybe he/she thinks that Social Security is running just fine and that there have to be no adjustements. Maybe he/she is happy that 12.5% of his/her salary (as viewed from his/her employers balance sheet) is earning 4% - 5% rather than the average of 10% if one invests in the S&P. Maybe he/she doesn't realize that if Bush's plan (or preferable the CATO plan) had taken effect his/her 'retirement' benefits would not fall under the control of a Senator Kennedy - or in her case Senator Santorum, whom I'm certain he/she deplores.

My response:

Some Economic Statistics from the US Treasury:

FY2001 (President Clinton’s last budget, in billions)
GDP: 10,128
Individual Income Tax: 994
Corporate Income Tax: 151
Total Revenues: 1,990
DOD Expenditures: 290
Social Security Expenditures: 489
Deficit: +127 (surplus)

FY2003 (Last Pre-Bush tax cut budget, in billions)
GDP: 10,971
Individual Income Tax: 793
Corporate Income Tax: 131
Total Revenues: 1,782
DOD Expenditures: 388
Social Security Expenditures: 524
Deficit: -374 (deficit)

FY2005 (Last Audited budget, in billions)
GDP: 12,479
Individual Income Tax: 927
Corporate Income Tax: 278
Total Revenues: 2,154
DOD Expenditures: 474
Social Security Expenditures: 578
Deficit: -318 (deficit)


FY2006 estimate (current budget, in billions)
GDP: 13,100
Individual Income Tax: 1,027
Corporate Income Tax: 352
Total Revenues: 2,375
DOD Expenditures: 512
Social Security Expenditures: 603
Deficit: -280(deficit)


If the DOD and Social Security expenditures had increased at the rate of inflation, then they would have grown from 779 Billion to 872 Billion. Because of the war the DOD expenditures grew from 290 Billion to 512 Billion. Because Social Security benefits are tied to wage increase rather than inflation they grew from 489 Billion to 602 Billion. Together, those expenditures grew from 779 Billion to 1,115 Billion. That is a difference of 243 Billion.

Thus, if there was no war and if Social Security was funded properly, we would be looking at a deficit of about 35 – 40 Billion. Or, rounding error in an economy of 13,100 Billion and tax revenues of 2,375 Billion.

Thus, are you, as a ‘Liberal and Loving It’, willing to bring the budget under control by the same means available to President Clinton (and a tactic President Clinton did use). Namely, are you willing to tax more Social Security income and cut our nations Defense budget in half?

End Reponse

Final Question: What shall our Liberal say when the budget is balanced by FY2009?

Death of a Community - Navy/Marine Corps IT...

Re(1): 'The Global Warriors', The Fourth Rail, Bill Roggio
Re(2): 'DELETE FROM TbPerps WHERE ...', The Belmont Club, Wretchard T.C.

Bill Roggio, blogger of The Fourth Rail, attended the ‘Joint Urban Warrior '06 Conference’ in the midst of the Beast (Washington D.C.).

Conversely, I got the dubious honor of attending the ‘Information Technology Community of Interest’ seminar – again within the Beast.

Mr. Roggio got to witness the DOD and State Department 'adapt and overcome' the problems inherent in winning the Global War on Terror:

The Joint Urban Warrior '06 Conference was an opportunity to hear a frank discussion on the current and future challenges in fighting against the more complex battles of the 21st Century. Insurgency, asymmetrical warfare, 4th Generation Warfare, guerrilla war - no matter what your preference is for terminology for the low intensity conflicts encountered in Iraq, Afghanistan, the Philippines, Thailand and elsewhere throughout the globe, the fact is these conflicts are unique challenges to democratic nations.

On the other hand, I witnessed the last nails driving into the coffin of the Navy/Marine Corps information technology infrastructure. The discussion was not really ‘frank’ – it was livened up with such beltway terms as ‘SESers’ – that is, those mavens of government service that are the rough equivalents of generals, all of whom seem to reside within thirty miles of the Beltway. Here are some of more salient thoughts on the conference:

1. The NMCI contract was extended to 2010.
2. There is a huge emphasis on Information Assurance
3. Navy leadership does not know what Information Assurance is
4. Congress mandated that ‘non-military’ tasks should be contracted out
5. SESers and Human Resource are still hiring data management personnel
6. There appears to be no concept that a Data Network requires data management
7. SESers think that the Information Technology field includes Excel Spreadsheet mavens

How Odd… Why hire personnel with extensive data management and presentation skills when NMCI precludes the installation of client software and/or the implementation of server based applications?

• Personal computer based applications are dramatically hindered by the stultifying ‘NMCI Certification’ process which treats a ‘bug fix’ as if it were a major release of an application. All applications must undergo a ‘rigorous’ test over a period of 4 – 6 months; costing about $10,000. Guess what, most applications will already be in the beginning of an upgrade cycle by the time NMCI gets done with its rigorous certification. I have gone through the process; and it is a joke. The ‘rigorous’ certification is: 1. Can it be installed, 2. Does it seem to communicate with the outside world, and 3. Can NMCI create a self-installing ‘push’ to automatically install the application on the client machines. Only extremely poor applications could possibly fail these ‘rigorous’ tests – and the scary thing is that many contractor developed applications did!
  
• Similarly, server based applications cannot be developed without a server or two. NMCI does not inherently support server based development platforms (a database server, a web server, and maybe a source code management server). However, those services can be purchased for the low, low cost of $80,000 per server per year (I have never successfully got NMCI to bid for such serviced, but I have spoken to those that have). Uuuumm, after an installation cost of about $400,000!!! What a deal!!. Let me jump on board right now!!!. Whoops, better wait a millennia or so – the whole network support structure was defunded to pay for NMCI L. And, you still need a production server (or server farm) to implement the application…

So, the DOD is running around developing skill sets and knowledge requirements for data management types while moving smartly forward destroying the tools required by those very same personnel. Imagine a corporation hiring information technology personnel that have no tools (or permissions) to perform their job.

Maybe we can all convert to ‘Information Assurance’ specialists. Our job then would be to scan the local branch of the NMCI network to ensure that automated patches are applied. And if they were not – beg and plead with someone in the NMCI oligarchy to apply those patches. That way, the Navy/Marine Corps can get comfortable in their circa 1950’s information management environment while ensuring the encryption of emails regarding NCAA tournament pools!!! The future of information management is seen best by studying the Korean War, not reviewing lessons learned in the burms surrounding Falujah:

U.S. troops maintain databases of who they are fighting, the better to pick targets for raids or surveillance. ...

...

For the insurgents, the real enemy, the brain that pulls the trigger, is an abstract structure called a database.

Oh, where oh where, will that skill set come from now. I do not think I have to remind the reader that the above link dates from September 2004. We have leaned forward in failure since then.

This mistake will require years to recover from – and the leadership still doesn’t recognize the error in their ways.

Did you hear that gun go off???

This game is over.

More on the Democrat's Rough and Tough Plan...

Re(1): 'Operation Steel Gazelle: A Smart, Multi-Slide Plan For Toughening American Security with Smartness', Iowahawk

HT: Charles Johnson at LittleGreenFootballs: 'Iowahawk: Operation Steel Gazelle'

Dear God, this is very, very, very bad (Iowahawk, read more)...

NANCY: Tell, us more Harry.

HARRY: Well Nancy, the first phase of our multi-faceted plan focuses on the number one key to restoring national security: getting Osama bin Laden. Even as we speak, this dangerous fugitive is still on the loose. As the leader of a Democratic majority in Congress, I will make sure that the head Army and Navy generals get a clear and unambiguous message: "Get Osama" is "Job One."

NANCY: But it is important to do smart too!

HARRY: That's right, Nancy. That's why our tough, no-nonsense emails to the generals will include pictures of Osama bin Laden, so they will know who to get.

NANCY: But whats about disguises?

HARRY: Way ahead of you Nancy! Using state-of-the-art PhotoShop smart computers, we will create simulated pictures of Osama bin Laden wearing a mustache, soul patch, trucker hat, and so on, and these will also be included in our emails. Then, the generals will distribute the pictures to the soldiers, and they can then make a surprise attack at Pakistan and get Osama bin Laden, no matter his latest look. Imagine the looks on the terrorists' faces!

NANCY: Me too! What is next, in the plan?

HARRY: Well Nancy, after invading Pakistan and getting Osama bin Laden, our plan will next focus on rapid American redeployment from Iraq. With terrorism finally a
thing of the past, we will need our American soldiers back here in the "good ol'
USA" to guard Osama bin Laden while he serves out a tough sentence in jail or an
innovative work-release program. NANCY: Sounds, smart! But what about
toughness?

HARRY: Don't worry Nancy - before we redeploy the soldiers out of Iraq, we will pass a tough new assault weapons ban in Iraq to keep these dangerous weapons out of the hands of civil war gangs. We will back it up with a roadside bomb amnesty program, and after-madrassa programs for at-risk insurgent youths.

As George 'W' Bush would say - "Being a Democrat and a Fool is Hard Work, You must be Patient..."

I would like to thank Bill Roggio for

blogrolling this rinky dink site on the 'The Fourth Rail'.

I have enjoyed his site since 'Wretchard' at the 'Belmont Club' hyperlinked to it.

I guess that is how things work on this thang we know of as the Blogosphere (this chap named it).

A Conversation on the War...

Some have asked: Why no discussion on the conflict in Iraq recently...

Breathlessly: Is it because of the civil war?
Breathlessly: Is it because of the mounting casualties?
Breathlessly: Is it because of BusHitlers cratering poll numbers?
Breathlessly: Is it because gas prices are increasing and Haliburton something or other?

It is because, for the time being at least, this is largely an Iraqi conflict. The Iraqis must win. We can support - but they have to fight. This is their battle. Afghanistan went through this; Iraq must pass through this as well. To me, the situation seems dicey - but improving.

I am watching the conflict through the eyes of experts. Please review:

The Fourth Rail
The Belmont Club
The Security Watchtower

As a piece of advice, don't waste your time with media flaks. Very few of them bring anything to the table; and those that do often require a Pravda review. When was the last time they provided valuable analysis on the conflict? They all missed the importance of the 'River Wars' for over six months of action. They missed the importance of Tal Afar. They missed the importance of the Sunni fragmentation. They are missing the importance of Zarqawi moving to the border region near Iran. They are missing the reduction of coalition casualties – and what that means. What else can they miss?

Personally, I am looking at the next theater in the GWOT - Iran. I do not think a military solution is inevitable. How long will Iran be able to continue nuclear development when sanctions are imposed by the UN? Has anyone reviewed a map centered on Iran? Sanctions imposed on Iran will be sanctions enforced on Iran - and they will be enforced by Americans who distictly remember the Iranian Hostage Crisis.

The Rhodent Lied, Truth Died…

Re(1): The Randi Rhodent Show, www.TheRandiRhodesShow.com
Re(2): ‘2005 Freedom of the Press’, Freedom House
Re(3): 'Air America in Phoenix seeking venture capitalists…', Me

AKA: More Truth (partial and deceptive) Comming at You from Err America.

The Randi Rhodent ranted that the United States ranked 17th in Freedom House’s ‘2005 Freedom of the Press’ survey. Then she permitted a caller to spew that America must have been ranked 1st before ‘W’ was installed as dictator by the oil barron NeoCons. 17th in the world, eh… See how far we've fallen... BusHitler!!!

My antennae extended on that odd blather

Am I really living in the Gulag?

Ah, heart be still. When you get ‘information’ from a Rhodent always look at the primary source. How many silly little Libs are doing so right now – and if they are, can they figure out how the statistics were generated? Did your average Liberal Moonbat realize that there were no rankings higher than a 9? What’s up:

My question to the Randi Rhodent, did you read the survey?

It wasn’t that hard to figure out.

Here is how it works!!!

There are three categories (using 2005 America as an example):

Legal Environment: 5
Political Influences: 7
Economic Pressures: 5
Total: 17

So, Mrs. Rhodent, we are not ranked 17th. And, for the same reason we are not ranked 5th in ‘Legal Environment’ – for example, a fine socialists state like Cuba had a score of 38, they were not ranked 38th. We had a total score of 17 computed from three partial scores - and all those scores imply an extremely FREE press. So that makes the Rhodent a simpleton and a liar since she permitted some idiotic Lib to bloviate an untruth to her 16 listeners without correcting it.

So let us look at that score of 17. First, any score less than 30 means that the Press is FREE. Second, America has banded in the narrow range of between 12 and 17 for over a decade.

So, Randi, when were we ‘ranked’ 1 – you idiot.
Show me that survey - you idiot.

Study the documents before you lie about them!!!

Democrats Pledge to 'Elimidate' Osama!!!

Re(1): 'Hey, Isn't That What We've Been Saying?', HughHewitt, Mary Katharine Ham
Re(2): 'Democrats to Introduce Security Plan', Wizbang, Kim Priestap
Re(3): 'Democrats Release 'Real Security' Plan', The Spape of Days
Re(4): 'Democrats Pledge to 'Eliminate' Osama', Associated Press, By Liz Sidoti

The Democratic Party has published their Quadrennial 'Real Security Strategy' white paper today. In it they take some tough and sensible stands. Forthwith:

1. Congressional Democrats promise to "eliminate" Osama bin Laden
2. Redeploy U.S. forces away from regions of military importance
3. Reemphasize the importance of DOD entitlement programs
4. Create more special forces
5. Hire more spies

This tough stand would have been quite effective had President Clinton taken this 'aggressive' stance during the eight years he controlled the Executive Branch of our government...

Imagine if the mighty Democrats:

1. Eliminated Osama bin Laden
2. Doubled the number of special forces and
3. Add more spies

BEFORE we were attacked on 9/11.


However, from 1993 - 2001 we:

1. Could not pull the trigger on bin Laden
2. Cut our military force structure by about 40%
3. And decimated our human intelligence capabilities

Let us face facts...

We have to accept the fact that the Democratic Party wants to 'Elimidate' Osama bin Laden!!!

LateR

P.S. I really don't want to waste more time linking primary sources for these arguments. If you can't find them you should no longer use the internet. If you really want examples of Clinton not pulling the trigger to capture or kill bin Laden, or want primary sources to prove Clinton cut the military manpower and budget and wiped out the CIA while President please use the comments section. I will slave over a new post in an effort to regenerate all those points. Like Mark Steyn stated on Hewitt's program today - this is getting boring... I'm getting tired - and I have had only a little more than 2100 visits to this blog!!!

Mexican Citizens Protesting...

... the Fact that they are Mexican Citizens!!!

December 8, 1941 - What was that exit plan!!!

Re(1): 'We Shall Fight on the Beaches', Winston Churchill
Re(2): 'A Day of Infamy', Franklin D. Roosevelt
Re(3): 'Fourth Inaugural Address, January 20, 1945', Franklin D. Roosevelt
Re(4): 'I Shall Return', General MacArthur

Who will be the last idiot whining about an 'exit plan' in the GWOT?

I know that the truly idiotic think a battle is a war, but...

Can't remember those "exit plans" in World War II

For Example:

The Darkest Hour:

Even though large tracts of Europe and many old and famous States have fallen or may fall into the grip of the Gestapo and all the odious apparatus of Nazi rule, we shall not flag or fail. We shall go on to the end, we shall fight in France, we shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our Island, whatever the cost may be, we shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender, and even if, which I do not for a moment believe, this Island or a large part of it were subjugated and starving, then our Empire beyond the seas, armed and guarded by the British Fleet, would carry on the struggle, until, in God's good time, the New World, with all its power and might, steps forth to the rescue and the liberation of the old. (Winston Churchill, 'We Shall Fight on the Beaches')

The Finest Hour:

What General Weygand called the Battle of France is over. I expect that the Battle of Britain is about to begin. Upon this battle depends the survival of Christian civilization. Upon it depends our own British life, and the long continuity of our institutions and our Empire. The whole fury and might of the enemy must very soon be turned on us. Hitler knows that he will have to break us in this Island or lose the war. If we can stand up to him, all Europe may be free and the life of the world may move forward into broad, sunlit uplands. But if we fail, then the whole world, including the United States, including all that we have known and cared for, will sink into the abyss of a new Dark Age made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted, by the lights of perverted science. Let us therefore brace ourselves to our duties, and so bear ourselves that, if the British Empire and its Commonwealth last for a thousand years, men will still say, "This was their finest hour." (Winston Churchill - 'Their Finest Hour')

A Day of Infamy:

With confidence in our armed forces -- with the unbounded determination of our people - we will gain the inevitable triumph - so help us God. (FDR - 'A Day of Infamy')

When shoved hard:

"I shall return" (General MacArthur - 'I shall Return')

And, when we started looking past the war:

In the days and in the years that are to come we shall work for a just and honorable peace, a durable peace, as today we work and fight for total victory in war.

We can and we will achieve such a peace.

We shall strive for perfection. We shall not achieve it immediately--but we still shall strive.

We may make mistakes--but they must never be mistakes which result from faintness of heart or abandonment of moral principle. (FDR - 'Fourth Inaugural Address, January 20, 1945)

And, my personal favorite - when things got wobbly after Germany was smashed and Japan was making back door efforts to sue for peace:

For out of this Total War, Must Come Total Victory... Admiral Earnest King

It seems as if the "exit plan" for World War II was complete and total victory...

Nothing Else...

Simple...

Who will remember the quotes and speeches of Congressman Murtha, Howard Dean, John Kerry, Nanci Pelosi, and Howard Reid. Their speeches don't resonate... Their ideas don't motivate... They are footnotes in history as history is being made...

To the Murthas and the rest, on behalf of those who want to finish the task assigned, please move along - you are in the way.

NMCI - The Non-Mission Capable Internet

Re(1): 'Comments on NMCI', The Fourth Rail, Bill Roggio

Bill Roggio at the Fourth Rail is seeking feedback on the Non-Mission Capable Network (NMCI). Because I very much respect Mr. Roggio and thoroughly enjoy his site I responded in his comment section with:

NMCI - Non Mission Capable Internet

As far as using the network day to day with general COTS applications such as Microsoft Word/Excel/Access/Outlook there is no problem. Additionally, trouble calls on standard software and hardware seem good to go...

Now for the however...

If you want to build an information technology system to permit large entities to communicate effectively you are out of luck. For example, as we cut over to NMCI we had to take down our secure website that permitted recruiters to reach into recruit training to review how their pool (those they recruited) were doing while in training. Kindof important, and arguably resulted in a rather substantial reduction in recruit attrition.

We have never received an official quote on hosting an application (or hosting a development environment), but others have been quoted fees of between $80,000 to $250,000 per server/per year. And, that is after startup costs of about $500,000. Modern intranet based systems generally require multiple servers.

And, there even more fun... You must certify all applications through their mighty clearing house. They have no clue what they are doing there.

And, not to belabor the point... Mission Critical applications written by contractors that perform some minor security 'violation' like updating it's own configuration file have to be rewritten. Ah, the joy of spending millions and consuming months/years of development - all the while your customer base reverts to the 1950's.

NMCI is taking the Navy and Marine Corps to the era of pencils and paper. There will be (actually I think there is) an increase in manpower requirements as we accelerate into history. And the Marine Corps concurrently wiped out their data oriented MOSs.

Love and Kisses...
One very happy customer
Feel Free to use my email to reach me

Now, let me summarize my critique of NMCI

1. The NMCI Contractors do not integrate with the command. They could just as easily be in India or some city central nudie bar for all the local staff does for you or is capable of doing for you. Their boss is EDS.
   
2. Information Technology is supposed to be flexible. Things change in Information Technology every day – and change is not limited to hardware or operating systems. The NMCI contract places the Navy/Marine Corps in a position where our enterprise data and software is locked in place and time. NMCI has to certify every minor change in an application as though it were a massive rewrite or upgrade. Windows applications are bug-fixed constantly. Each modification will require thousands of dollars and months of ‘labor’ for NMCI to certify.
   
3. The certification process has resulted in attempts to ‘internet enable’ all applications. This is costly and buggy. The new user interface is slow and not nearly as effective as a windows application. There is NO return on investment and the most likely result is the death of an application.
   
4. The certification process, as well as the arcane and undefined and constantly changing client machine security settings, result in an enormous reduction in the use of work flow enhancement software.
   
5. And, finally, any attempt to develop a new application is halted because it cannot be hosted within the NMCI maintained domain - it's domain is simply too inflexible and too expensive. Thus, since military systems are not permitted to be hosted at commercial sites we have a chicken and egg problem. And, the egg cannot even form. There is no shared development platform within the NMCI network.
   

But Pakistan didn’t attack us on 9/11 (yelling and breathing rapidly)!!!

Re(1): 'Consolidating Power in Talibanistan', The Fourth Rail, Bill Roggio
Re(2): 'A place like many others', The Belmont Club, Richard Fernandez

The Crescent of Terror is a region, not a country. Our enemy is not a religion, a people, nor a culture – but anarchy. Neither we, nor the Chinese, nor the Hindu, nor the Africans, nor the Japanese, nor the Slavs, nor those within Islam will prosper till these turds are properly disposed of.

When are the ranting morons following Cindy Sheehan going to realize this.

Our enemy is the enemy of civilization – all civilizations. We cannot defeat a state and thus defeat this foe. They must be confronted everywhere they flow. And, those corrupt states that accept them into their fold must pay the price.

We will chase Hannibal till the end of his days.

The Plame, the Plame, there's the Plame!!!

Re(1): 'Plame's identity, if truly a secret, was thinly veiled', Duluth News, John Crewdson

Things seem to have gotten very sloppy in the covert world of the CIA in the 1990's...

The deep, dark secret undercover woman listed her place of employment in the early 90's as an American Embassy in Athens (a true hotspot for WMD sleuthing in the 1990's)...

When the Chicago Tribune searched for Plame on an Internet service that sells public information about private individuals to its subscribers, it got a report of more than 7,600 words. Included was the fact that in the early 1990s her address was "AMERICAN EMBASSY ATHENS ST, APO NEW YORK NY 09255."

Who would ever think an embassy employ could be a CIA operative. Shhhhhh, be very quiet.

After the CIA financed a European Vacation (to study) she landed a job at Brewster/Jennings & Associates - a 'legal services' office. Me thinks that she is not a lawyer so some red flags would probably be sent up the line - especially when the business grosses the amazing sum of $60,000 a year - enough to pay Mrs. Plame, apparently.

Two years later, when Plame made a $1,000 contribution to Vice President Al Gore, she listed her employer as Brewster-Jennings & Associates, a Boston company apparently set up by the CIA to provide "commercial cover" for some of its operatives.

Brewster-Jennings was not a terribly convincing cover. According to Dun & Bradstreet, the company, created in 1994, is a "legal services office" grossing $60,000 a year and headed by a chief executive named Victor Brewster. Commercial databases accessible by the Tribune contain no indication that such a person exists.

But her resume of sleuthing for the compartmentalized CIA WMD programs was not done yet. She next got a job at CIA headquarters as a private energy consultant.

After Plame was transferred back to CIA headquarters in the mid-1990s, she continued to pass herself off as a private energy consultant. But the first CIA veteran noted: "You never let a true NOC go into an official facility. You don't drive into headquarters with your car, ever."

Now that's a twist. Run a front business out of CIA headquarters and travel to Iran as a Greek energy consultant. She could then check up on Iran's Global Warming WMD development on the oil platforms. Nobody would suspect CIA involvement to be that open... Very sneaky...

But then one of Porter Goss' goons in the CIA made this unfortunate comment:

A senior U.S. intelligence official, who like the others quoted in this article spoke on condition of anonymity, noted that Plame "may not be alone in that category, so I don't want to suggest she was the only one. But it would be a fair assumption that a true-blue NOC is not someone who has a headquarters job at any point or an embassy job at any point."

The nerve!!!

The CIA could not have been this sloppy during the reign of Clinton the Great!!!

There was a President who took the intelligence services seriously!!!

He cut the budget in half - What doesn't kill you makes you stronger!!!

Sauron Reporting Doom from Mount Doom..

Re(1): 'U.S. Army records 10th straight month exceeding recruiting goals', SecurityWatchTower, C.S. Scott
Re(2): 'Iraq Coalition Casualty Count', Iraq Coalition Casualty Count
Re(3): 'Budget Deficit Estimation...', Me
Re(4): 'Federal Budget Deficit - MoveOn Libs, nothing to see here', Me

Byline: Mr. Sauron, Reporting from Mount Doom

After reading C.S. Scott’s post ‘U.S. Army records 10th straight month exceeding recruiting goals’ I immediately thought of a few other topics the media is silent about:

Military Recruiting: All active duty recruiting goals have been met or exceeded. Reserve recruiting has been spotty. I, however, contend that current Administration and DOD goals are deemphasizing reserve and guard strength. That cannot be stated for political reasons – but review the BRAC base closings. Reserve and Guard commands were ‘streamlined’ and closed at a much higher rate than active duty stations. Can anyone deny that the Army should restructure to more of a Marine Corps force structure?

Iraq Quagmire: Since the ratification of the Iraqi Constitution in October 2005 the Coalition fatality rate has dropped from 3.19/day to 2.07/day. This includes traffic accidents and the like, but the statistics are drawn consistently so we are comparing apples to apples. This month (March 2006) we are looking at a 0.91/day rate. At these low numbers any lucky hit by al Qaeda in Iraq will affect the rates. Regardless, the rates are in a rather dramatic decline.

Iraq Civil War: The statistics do not support that contention even though there has been a little upturn in Iraqi casualties. Here is what appears to be happening in our media: CNN will report an atrocity today, CBS tomorrow will report the same thing tomorrow, and ABC will follow a bit later. The viewer sees the same event three times as three discrete events. View the link and note how many mass attrocities are documented - and then remember how they were presented in the media. Day after day the same mass killing would be presented - and be presented in a slant that made them seem like new events.

Unemployment: National Unemployment rates have dropped from 6% in 2003 to less than 5% in 2006. Neither rate results in soup lines and migrations of populations. And, 5% is considered full employment. Right now wages are going up and the Federal Reserve is concerned about inflation. Unemployment concerns???

Economic Growth: Since 2003 we have had an average of 3.5% GDP growth. That is a perfect number. Neither too fast for a boom, nor slow enough to throw the US into a recession. This reasonable growth rate is sustainable and is the reason why many are whining about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates for ten consecutive cycles.

Annual Deficit: FY2003’s deficit was 3.4% of our GDP, FY2005’s deficit was 2.6% of our GDP. My estimate for FY2006 is it will come in around 2.1% of GDP. FY2007 will be better because Congress is starting to be shamed into a conservative alignment.

Corporate Tax Cuts: Corporate income tax revenues in FY2003 were 131 Billion, in FY2005 they were 278 Billion. At the height of President Clinton’s vaunted economy corporate income tax revenue were 185 Billion (FY1999). Thus, Bush’s corporate cronies are paying much more now than they did under Clinton. My guess is that we will see a corporate income tax revenue stream of about 350 Billion in FY2006.

Outsourcing Jobs: Uuuummmm, Lefties and Buchananites, ever hear about the baby boom. You folks still spend money like drunken sailors. There are fewer people in the US providing goods and services for them. Face up to the fact that you will have to accept immigration or accept outsourcing to satisfy your purchasing pattern. Understand another thing Boomers: Do you think the GenXers will pay for your retirement when you did not save for it. You reared a tough brood. Remember we were the latch key children that used to shoot each other in the classroom. More seriously, look at the comments from the SNCOs and mid-level officers in our military - they are willing to accept casualties for mission achievement.

Where shall Doom fall next...

Enjoy and invest!!!

Air America in Phoenix seeking venture capitalists…

Re(1): 'How Long', The Radio Equalizer, Brian Maloney
Re(2): www.SaveAirAmericaPhoenix.com

Evil Right Wing Christian Wingnuts purchased Air America’s powerhouse station in Phoenix after collecting donations from two pancake breakfast fundraisers in February. The current owners apparently did not get their monthly check from the Boys and Girls Clubs of New York in a timely manner. We all know what happens when the rent check is always late.

And, Air America was just starting to make money. I mean, their ratings grew from a dominating 1.5 in the Summer 2005 season to an amazing 1.1 now. That is some growth, eh… Kinda like a cancerous growth on the brain… Maybe next quarter they will be at less than a 1 share – editor’s note: Air America Phoenix is actually pulling in a flat 0 share right now.

You can donate money (or actually loan them money) here: SaveAirAmericaPhoenix

Note: I would not recommend this investment be part of your long term retirement plan.

If you want to see just how close you are toward funding the effort to restart Air America at the Arizona Technical College radio station (with an audience reach of almost 3,452 residents) view this site: GotStation

And they have a blog you can leave a nifty comment on their blog...

Here to help,
Boghie

THIS is the Leadership we NEED!!!

Re(1): ‘Democrats Struggle To Seize Opportunity’, Washington Post, Shailagh Murray and Charles Babington

There I was a decade ago:

"It could be a great year for Democrats," said Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.), but the party must present a more moderate face and distinguish itself more clearly from the GOP on issues such as ethics. "The comment I hear is 'I'd really like to vote for you guys, but I can't stand the folks I see on TV,' " Cooper said in a telephone interview from Nashville.

Sounds like President Clinton fighting ‘The War on Terror’:

Democratic leaders had set a goal of issuing their legislative manifesto by November 2005 to give voters a full year to digest their proposals. But some Democrats protested that the release date was too early, so they put it off until January. The new date slipped twice again, and now House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) says the document will be unveiled in "a matter of weeks."

Maybe another meeting – or maybe appoint an ‘Election Tsar!!!

But many in the party have their doubts. On Feb. 27, Reid and Pelosi appeared before the Democratic Governors Association. At one point in the conversation, Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, noting that the two leaders had talked about a variety of themes and ideas, asked for help. Could they reduce the message to just two or three core ideas that governors could echo in the states?

According to multiple accounts from those in the room, Reid said they had narrowed the list to six and proceeded to talk about them. Pelosi then offered her six -- not all the same as Reid's. Oregon Gov. Ted Kulongoski said later: "One of the other Governors said 'What do you think?' and I said 'You know what I think? I don't think we have a message.' "

And, uh…

Even the party's five-word 2006 motto has preoccupied congressional Democrats for months. "We had meetings where senators offered suggestions," Reid said. "We had focus groups. We worked hard on that. . . . It's a long, slow, arduous process."

That slogan -- "Together, America Can Do Better" -- was revived from the 2004 presidential campaign of Sen. John F. Kerry. It was the last line of Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine's response to President Bush's State of the Union address, and Reid, Pelosi and Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean have used it in speeches. But there is an effort afoot to drop the word "together." It tests well in focus groups and audiences, Democratic sources said, but it makes the syntax incorrect.

I think I could vote for a party who follows the polls:

"There are lots of skeptics," Schumer conceded. But the polls look better and better, he stressed. "There may be some inside-the-Beltway babble, but it's not affecting the voters," said Schumer, who wants the agenda delayed again -- until summer.

China - World Domination...

Re(1): 'JOURNAL: When China Derails', Global Guerillas, John Robb
Re(2): 'Big Bangs', Global Guerillas, John Robb
Re(3): 'Mighty Chinese Armada spotted rounding South Korean peninsula!!!', Me!!!

Boing...

China is the Borg
We will be assimilated!!!

Boing...

Japan is the Borg
We will be assimilated!!

Boing...

The Soviet Union is the Borg
We will be assimilated!

On a post at Global Guerrillas John Robb posits that China may disintegrate rather than dominate. I think that is highly likely and commented as follows:

Getting my tinfoil hat out...

Is there a possibility that economic forces were used in a peaceful conflict with Japan in the 90's?

Remember the commentary that Japan was purchasing America, was outstripping our production, was competing us into oblivion, was too important to challenge because of the debt load it held over our head. Many of the same arguments noted above stating that the impending collapse of China's economy would destroy its polity and recall assets back from the United States were made in the 80's regarding Japan. Pat Buchanan ran a presidential campaign on such constructs.

Would you pull money out of U.S. backed securities or U.S. multinational Fortune 500 companies to reinvest into a collapsing state? Japanese investors who ‘bought on the bubble’ did have to ‘fire sale’ speculative real-estate in the early 90’s. And, their economy is only now reviving.

The interesting element of China is this: Is the vast majority of the U.S. debt load controlled by the government of China or by investors and individuals? The answer to that may inform us of how a political and economic collapse in China affects our
polity and economy.

Regardless, I think you are largely correct. China, like the Soviet Union, North Korea, Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, etc. are hollow entities and will collapse spectacularly. I think your previous post ‘Big Bang’ plays an enormous role in these interesting times.

At least we will have something to talk to our grand children about!!!

Because I have caveated the comment (and hence this post) with the crossed fingers tin-foil hat clause this post shall not be subject to the ‘My Flameout’ list if disproved by an intrepid commenter. Still, a discussion would be welcome - and if someone completely clobbers the thought I might stick it in the anti-memory hole of the Flameouts as a token entry. Still waiting for the first Flameout...

Definitely visit John Robb’s Global Guerillas site.

Boing, Boing…

Late August, remembrance of Katrina…

Early September, remembrance of 9/11…

Early November, elections in the United States…

These events will shape our politics for decades to come. I have a read on how 9/11 affects the political discussion. I have no clue regarding Katrina. However, my guess is that the out of power Democrats may be boosted a bit in the very short term – till 2008. That is because I think the Katrina fiasco has been personalized by the Democratic Party – and personalized to President GW Bush.

Long term, we shall see if there is an increasing belief and confidence in the general incompetence of government as a result of viewing the brilliant leadership of all levels of government in the wake of catastrophe. Conservatives, and conservative stricture, do not count on a government savior to pluck the individual from decrepit rooftops.

We shall see, we shall see…

Budget Deficit Estimation...

Re(1): 'Annual Unemployment Rate', US Bureau of Labor
Re(2): 'GDP', US Department of Commerce
Re(3): 'GDP Growth Rate', US Department of Commerce

We have a reducing unemployment rate

Unemployment:

FY2000 - 4.0%
FY2001 - 4.7%
FY2002 - 5.8%
FY2003 - 6.0%
FY2004 - 5.5%
FY2005 - 5.1%

We have GDP Growth

GDP Growth

FY2000 - 3.7%
FY2001 - 0.8%
FY2002 - 1.6%
FY2003 - 2.7%
FY2004 - 4.2%
FY2005 - 3.5%

And, we have an accelarating GDP

GDP (In Billions)

FY2000 - 9,817
FY2001 - 10,128
FY2002 - 10,469
FY2003 - 10,971
FY2004 - 11,743
FY2005 - 12,479

And, now for the spreadsheet (uuuggghhh, as a stupid picture )-:)

Federal Budget Deficit - MoveOn Libs, nothing to see here

re(1): 'Gummint', www.polipundit.com, Jayson
re(2): 'January 2006 Budget Statement', U.S. Treasury
re(3): 'FY2005 Budget Statement', U.S. Treasury
re(4): 'January 2005 Budget Statement', U.S. Treasury
re(5): 'FY2004 Budget Statement', U.S. Treasury
re(6): 'January 2004 Budget Statement', U.S. Treasury
re(7): 'FY2003 Budget Statement', U.S. Treasury
re(8): 'January 2003 Budget Statement', U.S. Treasury

To all,

I have been spending all day (all weekend, actually) trying to place an HTML table in a blog entry on this fine Blogger driven page... Stupid thing places a billion blank lines (which cannot be deleted) before the table appears. Very nice, and a known bug with no real resolution...

So folks, as of now you get no raw data... What a raw deal...

The basic gist of the whole thing was to inform my few (and getting fewer) readers that it looks as if the Federal budget deficit is shrinking. It looks to be between:

286 Billion (taken from reviewing Actual/January ratios)

and

316 Billion (taken from the reviewing Actual/CBO ratios)

That is a far cry from the origininal FY2006 CBO estimate of 423 Billion...

I would put my money on the lower number, and even go lower than that... By the way, I slogged through emails I send to friends every once in a while. I missed last years deficit number by about 9 Billion - I figured it to be about 325 Billion. The CBO figured FY2005's deficit at 426 Billion - so they missed it by only 101 Billion.

Anyone remember President Bush's campaign pledge to cut the deficit in half by FY2009 (his last budget). Well guess what, the CBO estimate for FY2004 was 520 Billion - in reality it came in at about 412 Billion, missing the mark by 108 Billion - good enough for government work. Last year (FY2005) the CBO estimate missed the target by only 101 Billion. He was sitting at 318 Billion at the end of FY2005. Thus, President Bush has to shave off about 25 Billion over the next three years in a growing economy, with conservative electorate pressing to reduce expenses, and with the wind down of Iraq.

Hhhhhmmmm, can he make it?

Me thinks so

I think he will make it even if a couple of hundred thousand American military personnel make an unexpected visit to a nation steeped in the history of Xerxes and Darius and Alexander and Sulla.

Me thinks my el Presidente will be looking quite rosy when he troops about the nation campaigning for squishy Republicans.

And Jayson, where is the Hooverville remark in your post. How am I to find it in the future. Certainly the Libs expect a better unemployment rate that 4.9% and a rapidly shrinking deficit. They are fighting goverment expenditures with every breath they take. I can just see their campaign - 4% unemployment and a deficit of 2% will crush the poor, disabled, and elderly!!!

Virtue, Freedom, and Cartoons

Re(1): 'Land of the Free', National Review, Dinesh D'Souza

Virtue without Freedom is a mere echo of itself…

The recent Islamic and Western uproar regarding the Mohammad cartoons remineds me of a Dinesh D’Souza debate on competing values of Virtue and Freedom in the West and Islam.

To Summarize:

A second problem, Qutb wrote, is that the core principle of America is liberty — the right to determine one's own destiny — and this, he argued, is a highly defective principle. The reason is that liberty can be used well or liberty can be used badly. Given what Immanuel Kant called "the warped timber of humanity," the human propensity for selfishness and vice, Qutb argued that freedom will
often be used badly.

…

This, in brief, is Qutb's defense of Islamic theocracy. Islamic societies may be poor, Qutb admitted, but at least they are seeking to implement the will of God. Even if they are failing at this, Qutb said, at least they are trying. And that — he concluded — makes Islamic society superior to Western society.

…

But if freedom brings out the worst in people, it also brings out the best. The millions of Americans who live decent, praiseworthy lives deserve our highest admiration because they have opted for the good when the good is not the only available option. Even amid the temptations that a rich and free society offers, they have remained on the straight path. Their virtue has special luster because it is freely chosen. The free society does not guarantee virtue any more than it guarantees happiness. But it allows for the pursuit of both — a pursuit rendered all the more meaningful and profound because success is not guaranteed but has to be won through personal striving.

By contrast, the theocratic and authoritarian society that Islamic fundamentalists advocate undermines the possibility of virtue. If the supply of virtue of insufficient in free societies, it is almost nonexistent in Islamic societies, because coerced virtues are not virtues at all. Consider the woman in Afghanistan or Iran who is required to wear the veil. There is no real modesty in this, because the woman is being compelled. Compulsion cannot produce virtue; it can only produce the outward semblance of virtue.

Why does the Mohammad cartoon confrontation remind me of D’Souza’s discussion on the two basic building blocks of our two very different civilizations?

That is easy to answer:

1. The West may deride the stupidity of choice that led to the confrontation – but will never challenge the freedom to choose the action. A denial of the freedom to proceed as these editors did implies that brilliant and valued decisions of these selfsame editors are forever thus coerced.
   
2. On the other hand, Islam cannot amend itself to accept ridicule of its cultural heritage – and will strike those who challenge it even if they ultimately fail, because at least they are trying to attain and/or retain virtue. The graven and churlish and ridiculous images of ‘The Prophet’ – by the infidel, no less - cannot be countenanced.
   
3. Islam seeks coercive action from the state to resolve the issue – because the state, no matter how impure, must submit in some way to Allah.
   
4. The West seeks resolution through free expression of opposing views, shame, and other ideas – because opposing ideas are freely expressed; let the best win.

Now the question:

Are the barbaric acts of violence a result of virtue or coercion or both? Since the question must be asked, the answer is provided.

QED

I am hardening...

My steel is tempering…

A Few Clear Thoughts on the Law of Wiretapping…

Three Axioms:

1. To wiretap a communication stream in the United States you require a court warrant.
2. The FISA court has legal precedence in the American judicial system
3. There is no actual international court or precedence

Three Questions

1. Do both sides of the wiretapped communication link in the United States require a court warrant?
2. Are all international calls adjudicated by FISA or the United States Courts?
3. Is a FISA ruling binding in a sovereign state other than the United States?

Three Answers:

1. No, only the target of a wiretap within the United States is covered by the warrant. This is obvious because it is unknown who is making contact or being contacted by the individual for whom the warrant is writ.
2. The United States Courts (and thus FISA) have no power outside of the United States.
3. Therefore, FISA court warrants have no judicial power on a communications wiretap of a targeted source outside of the United States.

Three Issues:

1. Did the NSA target new Americans with wiretaps after those Americans (in the United States) communicated with the original target – again without a warrant? Even the New York Times journalist doesn’t make this claim, but it would be problematic legally and morally.
2. Is it morally right to have the ability to wiretap 5.7 Billion people in the world simply because they are not US citizens?
3. If some international court does have some law, is it binding and is it enforced?

Consequently, at least from a non-lawyer's standpoint, the NSA wiretaps are legal - and not even in a grey area. Regretfully, the 5.7 billion people in the world who are not US citizens, and who live outside our borders, are not covered by US law - to include FISA precedence and US Constitutional protections. Thus, a tap on a communications stream with the target residing outside of US judicial boundries does NOT require any court acceptance, nor any Congressional acceptance. The only hold would be an international agreement, but those are not binding.

Newsy Bits...

Note (2006/01/26 1958):

Hamas and the Palestinians

• Who cares about the Palestinians…
• The Israelis have put them behind walls…
• Just get the TV cameras and satellites rolling...
• Next month they run out of Air America style donations…

And, while we are at it, how bout that purveyor of honesty – Air America

The Randi Rhodent told us all today that her market share is growing by 60%, 80%, 2,000,000%. Me thinks she has forgotten to remind her listener(s) that 100% growth from a base of 50,000 listeners results in 100,000 national listeners.

I don’t know the numbers, but I can smell a turd when one rolls by!!!

Air America list of stations: ‘Find a Station’
Check this out: Air America Affiliate ‘Newsradio WTAM 1100’

Kinda looks like the Air America affiliate is a sports talk station with Rush Limbaugh
and the Left’s ‘Voice of Reason’ (Jerry Springer) as political talking heads.
Hhhhmmmmm, that turd sure stunk when I noted the 7.9 listener share. I had
to check it out when the Rhodent ranted about her listener growth…

And who cares about Air America and their listener base. Just like the Palestinians, they have done this to themselves. One nice positive is that big money Lefties are still wasting precious campaign cash on this ‘enterprise’.

Millions spent filling a hole in the ocean – Priceless…

Note (2006/01/26 1958):

I decided I had to review the spreadsheet that bored little me created containing Air America's ratings (culled from their list and www.radioandrecords.com). Air America's highest rated station is:

KLSD in San Diego (uuuggghhhh) with a reasonable 3.1 share in the 17th largest market

Uuuummm, I live in San Diego, and sometimes listen to the Rhodent. But, I also like train wrecks and electoral disasters... The nicest thing about San Diego winning this sweepstakes is that the next highest is Detroit's WDTW with a 2.2 share. Quite the drop off, eh...

Right Wing Radio behemoth KOGO 600 in San Diego has a 5.2 share...

Iran...

Re(1): 'The Road to Tehran...', National Review, Michael Ledeen
Re(2): 'Warriors and Wusses', Left Angeles Times, Joel Stein
Re(3): 'Warriors and Wusses?', BlackFive, Uncle J
Re(4): 'CIA Fact Book', www.cia.gov, Some Spooky Guy

An Important Prediction for 2006!!! Just a month or so late :-(

The United Nations will attempt to impose their normal weak sanctions program on Iran. The problem is that Iran is functionally surrounded by, oh shall we say, fanatically aggressive enforcers of sanction programs targeting Iran. I will not speak for the thirty-something year old captains and majors and SNCOs in the military, but I am guessing that their ‘political’ teeth were cut during the Iran Hostage Crisis. Maybe some of the old geezers remember that year with less than fondness. Just a guess. Take a look at a nice map from the CIA’s factbook.

Hhhhmmmm…


To the west are 130,000 front line American soldiers and Marines. Also to the west are 290,000 increasingly effective American trained Iraqi troops. These half-million soldiers might play a role in enforcing a sanctions regime against Iran.

To the south we have the United States Navy. Every day of the year there is a nearby carrier and a battle group of frigates, destroyers, cruisers, and submarines. There is a reasonable assumption that such a force could effectively blockade Iran’s oil exports. Nothing to see here folks, move along…

To the east is Pakistan. Who knows… But, recent rending of clothing aside, I think it can be demonstrated that Pakistan will be of little or no help to Iran. Apparently, there is little or no trade between Iran and Pakistan anyway. Thus there will be little or no opportunity for George Galloway to make a quick Sterling Pound or so through graft and corruption. With American troops in Pakistan, and our current agreements with Pakistan, I do not think Iran will look east to break an embargo.

Also east is Afghanistan. There are thousands of American ground forces sitting around taking their GED for the eighth time (or whatever Joel Stein thinks they do – such the expert). They might, just might, get annoyed at anyone trying to break a UN embargo in their part of town. Those GED tests are expensive, and our gullible underclass need all the study time they can get.
Now to the weak point – the north. There are no pipelines for Iran’s major export – unlike that which traversed Syria to the Mediterranean. Syria’s pipeline was used by Saddam to continuously pump the oily sludge Galloway was slopping up – years before his recent fine television appearances!!!

Thus, we have an effective blockade – even though the UN is wary of anything effective against their club of corrupt kleptocracies.

Concerns:
Today, foreign nations purchased significantly less American debt than expected. Is it because the interest rate wasn’t competitive – or because they want to hit us using our debt load as a weapon? Regardless, it is time to reduce our debt creation by at least 20%. Now, right now… Hey Libs, be happy. We will have to sacrifice something to win this war against Islamic Terror.

May Libs and Buchaninites seem to think Israel shares a border with Iran. That Israel can deal with this problem without waking us from our nice nap. Guess what, any Israeli attack on Iran would require American acquiescence. See above. Can you think of any way Israel can strike Iran without American support? Eh…

Interesting Times…

Faster Please…

Where is the Outrage???

Re(1): 'Uneasy dreams and monstrous vermin', The Belmont Club, Wretchard TC
Re(2): 'Psychology of Suicide Bombers', Discovery Channel

We are in the midst of a spurt of ‘kidnappings’ taking place throughout the barbaric Islamic world. The kidnappings taking place in Gaza, the West Bank, Iraq, and Afghanistan are becoming a weekly affair.

Where is the Outrage in the American public?

Are we Americans that apathetic, that inured to tragedy, that obsessed in our goal of destroying terrorist organizations.

Or are we starting to see a very odd pattern emerging – one that we subconsciously expected.

We know small groups can radicalize around ideas. The ‘Discovery Channel’ aired a documentary last night titled ‘Psychology of Suicide Bombers’ that postulated on the formation of terrorist organizations. First a small group independently radicalizes – using material and ideas from the ‘corporate’ entity, oftentimes without direct support from mainline terrorist organizations. Trust relationships form into radicalized bonds that start reinforcing themselves. They see the target of their hate as objects. Hence, the truly dangerous elements of international terror are not those wayward individuals who seek membership in the organizations – but those radicalized and dynamic small groups that already have a defined mission which then desire umbrella membership in a global terrorist organization. Khalil Sheikh Mohammed formed one such mini terrorist organization, built on an idea that was grafted into al Qaeda quite effectively. The end result was 9/11.

So terrorist groups are built by incorporating sub-entities that are self-radicalized.

Cannot the same be said of small groups of independent leftists and haters of western civilization? Cannot such groups form out of a radicalized distrust of capitalism, western power, western culture, etc? How would such radicalized groups interact with international organized entities such as al Qaeda, Hezbollah, and Hamas? Can a misguided youth who rioted against WTO in Seattle find common cause with Osama bin Laden? What would the interaction look like? Could it be that such groups have formed, made contact with terror organizations, and set up planned kidnappings in an effort to ‘get their message out’? How else can the relationships be defined and presented?

In the end, the message is the same.
We hate western civilization.
We hate capitalism.
We hate power
We hate you

Watch out France!!!

Don't Invite Terror Turds to Your Wedding Party...

Re(1): 'Leadership of al Qaeda targeted in Damadola', www.SecurityWatchTower.com, C.S. Scott
Re(2): 'Hit: al Qaeda's Bomb Maker', www.MichelleMalkin.com, Michelle Malkin

Millions well spent…

To those overspending Republicans in Congress a hearty Thank You…

Thank you for buying the 10 Hellfire missiles we needed to splat Midhat Mursi, al Qaeda’s Chemical Weapon Terror Turd.

And would President Clinton have pulled the trigger? Let's see:

Nope!!!
Never Could Pull the Trigger
There are always ‘civilians’ in the area...
Let's count the dead Terror Turds of the Clinton Legacy

To the rest of the Terror Turds out there 'Watch Your Six'. And don't forget to gaze skyward every tenth of a second or so. Looks like you can’t find sanctuary anywhere. We seem to know who you are. We seem to know how to find you. We don't care much about diplomatic niceties when squishing turds in soverign nations. Too bad…

America is a very different nation from the one that ran out of Tomahawk missiles during the mighty Clinton Presidency. More like Rome doggedly tracking Hannibal after Zama than Carter telling us to wear sweaters or Clinton biting his upper lip.

Too bad for you…

Idiotarian, Moonbat, Darwin Award Contestant...

Updated (2006/01/01 1104)

2006 will be a difficult year for nominatation committees.

For example:

One would be hard pressed to determine the correct category for the first family of anti-western 'peace' activists who get their heads chopped off by some overambitious jihadist.

1. Should they be Idiotarians
2. Should they be Moonbats
3. Should they be Darwin Award contestants

I am glad I am not responsible for running end-of-year contests.


Update (2006/01/01 1104)
A friend has emailed with at least a partial solution for this quandary!!!

This enlightened individual has reminded me that Iraq will be getting safe enough to entice the vaunted media to spin their story from throughout the region. These self-same media mavens will no doubt think that the entire Middle East would benefit from their spin skills. So here goes...

If a Lefty Media Slug is killed after being kidnapped than simply look at his/her status on the various annual awards. For example, if Robert Fisk has his head removed than we are talking about an Idiotarian. George Monbiot and family would be Moonbats. And since Cindy Sheehan wrote a book nobody read, and because even the Moonbats and Idiotarians ignore her now, she may be relegated to the status of Darwin Award Contestant.

Now, if the ‘insurgent’ or ‘freedom fighter’ in question accidentally chops the cerebrum off some unknown person of peace than we can scan the articles written by award winners of various categories. If the casualty is written about more by an Idiotarian, than that individual, and those associates facing the same demise at the same event, is an Idiotarian. Likewise with Moonbats. However, one can be either an Idiotarian or a Moonbat and still be eligible for a Darwin Award.

The most conclusive evidence, however, will be the inevitable tape of the event in question. If the activists seem to believe that it is all an act to the very end, than they are Idiotarians. Conversely, if the martyr either yells ‘Alah Akbar’, ‘Go Stalin’, ‘Death to Corporatism’, ‘This is Halliburton’s doing’, or some other such nonsense than we are watching the demise of a Moonbat. A true Darwin Award Contestant would not know why she/he is tied up while a cutlass wielding fascist screams and chants Islamic slogans.

Any other illustrative help in this discussion should be incorporated in the comments. Such support would be much appreciated.

LGF: 'Robert Fisk Idiotarian of the Year 2005' balloting...

Re(1): 'Robert Fisk Idiotarian of the Year 2005', www.littlegreenfootballs.com/weblog, Charles Johnson

Here are my three selections in LittleGreenFootballs coveted ‘Robert Fisk Idiotarian of the Year 2005’ award. Like they say, ‘get out the vote’!!!

New York Times...

As stated above, it is a bit difficult to name it Idiotarian of the Year, but the fact that it is the Robert Fisk Idiotarian of the Year award aces it. Maybe some of the writers are actual Moonbats rather than Idiotarians because they have knowledge of, and aggressively drive toward, the cliff.

However, as a whole, I am completely satisfied that the writers and the editors of the NYT are generally ignorant of the topics of war and terrorism.

Too bad you did not include the uncritical readers of the NYT on your list of Idiotarians. They are the definition of Useful Idiots. Oh, never mind - just read the list (MSNBC, CBS, The Guardian, Actors, UN, and Democratic Party). It is, of course, the paper of record for Idiotarians!

Cindy Sheehan...

She started reading the New York Times after 9/11. She was especially impressed with the discussion of America's complicity in blowing itself up. Maybe some of the facts that prove President Bush destroyed the buildings with well placed barrels of Halliburton oil drums.

Her favorite writer was Jayson Blair. She can't believe that the 'Paper of Record' would allow him to leave for greener pastures without offering a significant pay raise. She can't figure out how to get online to view Englands Paper of Record - The Guardian.

In her sleep she remembers NYT articles - and other major media presentations based on 'Paper of Record' scoops - that had her son tortured in Abu Gharib, shot by Halliburton employees, forced into the military by Cheney press gangs, etc.

She is the definition of an Idiotarian. All others are shades of grey...

Rep. Jack Murtha...

He defines the Mawkish Democrat.

The NYT, MSNBC, LA Times, CBS, and the rest that follow the lead of the NYT termed him a 'Hawkish' Democrat.

He is 'Hawkish' only regarding pension benefits, weapons built in his district, clothing allowances, food allowances, social reengineering, and short conflicts executed with stand-off weapons.

After taking 18 casualties in 'Blackhawk Down' he 'convinced' President Clinton to bail ignominiously from the region. That Mawkish moment is forever eulogized in Osama bin Laden's FATWA about weak horses and paper tigers and such.

Representative Murtha is just a normal conflicted Democrat of the Vietnam era. He wants a military for the social engineering that can be accomplished through such large and influential organization. He doen't want the military to be included in combat. He wants to move our military to where the action is – Kansas. Just over the horizon, and over again, and over again, and then over again. Maybe Syria will allow us to post some troops – Iran?

He was a sleeper Idiotarian – and was activated by some droning speech John Kerry made to some progressive think tank deriding combat for anything, anything at all.

He is my final pick!

Uuuummm, Goldberg and Steyn 2006 Predictions

Re(1): 'NRO’s 2006 Crystal Ball', http://www.nationalreview.com, Editors and Writers thereof

Dear God, Noooooooooooooooo...

Jonah Goldberg

• Joe Wilson and Valerie Plame will enter talks to launch their own talk/reality show. Even after a sweeps week episode in which Wilson eats 6 pounds of yellow cake from in-between Plame's cleavage with his hands tied behind his back, he will take great offense at anyone who suggests he's a publicity hound.
  
• Abu Zarqawi will be caught alive. But he will hang himself in his cell when Reuters reports that Iraqi authorities found the director's cut of Brokeback Mountain in his portable DVD player.

Mark Steyn

• Hollywood will have another bad year following the failure of its latest critically-acclaimed masterpiece. In Broke Bank Mountin', the entire movie industry is flying in a jet to New York when a terrorist stewardess announces she's crushing their dissent by crashing the plane into the Empire State Building. Fortunately, an unemployed giant gorilla from Animal Equity is rampaging around at the top of the tower after his film career tanked when he agreed to take a challenging role in which he played the world's first gay giant gorilla and answers a personal ad in the Village Voice from a plus-sized bear. The enraged ape reaches into the sky and picks up the plane, sending the terrorist stewardess tumbling to the back of coach, where her wig falls off and she's revealed to be Dick Cheney. Industry insiders will be taken aback by the $300-million multi-Oscar-nominated flop but have high hopes for the new Spielberg movie Cycle Of Violence starring Nicole Kidman and Kate Winslet as Israeli and Palestinian unicyclists who elope after the Cirque du Soleil opening ceremony at the Italian Olympics.

2006 New Year's Predictions!!!

Re(1): 'Predictions for 2006', www.politicalfred.blogspot.com , Political Fred
Re(2): 'The Net Never Forgets', www.BoghieOnYourSix.BlogSpot.com, Me

I was going to blather about predictions for 2006 when I started surfing though my blog roll... Alas, Political Fred's synopses fired before any of my caffeine induced nodes awoke...

Predictions are fun. For example, in June 2004 I got into a tussle with someone named Julius on the 'Command Post' regarding the direction Iraq would subsequently take. So, naturally someone as cocky as I would have to review the wager at a later date in 'The Net Never Forgets'. Check out the original Command Post discussion - quite wide ranging...

So here are some aditional projections to think about:

1. Iran gets sanctioned - effectively (look at map)
2. Iraq will no longer be the major combat theater in the GWOT
3. Afghanistan will move farther away from active combat in the GWOT
4. Pakistan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt will become combat zones in the GWOT (1)
5. The Hard Left will drag the Center Left into political oblivion in America
   Senate: 58 Republicans, 42 Democrats
   House: ~235, Republicans, ~200 Democrats
   Media: Krugman and Scheer scale lifestyle downward (2)

Predictions can be dangerous - will the above post land in my 'My Flameouts' (currently empty) blogroll of shame!!!

(1) I think, however, that only Syria and possibly Pakistan will require American forces. Saudi Arabia and Egypt seem to be moving smartly forward using their 'police' forces.

(2) And there will be another huge media scandal prompted by bias and topic ignorance. How long are we going to trust the ignorant to report on the complicated - especially when their biases taint their view?

Why They Don’t Fight…

The Left does not fight because they are not at war…

It was not New York City that was attacked. It was not Washington D.C. that was attacked. It was not the Capital Building that was targeted. It was an icon of global trade and capitalism that was attacked. It was an icon of military power and leadership that was attacked. It was an icon of world political power and dominance that was attacked.

Fundamentally, we know why al Qaeda struck those targets. All Americans know. Deep in our hearts and minds. Al Qaeda struck those targets because they were icons of Western Civilization.

But they are not the respected icons of the Left’s Western Civilization. Thus, to the Left, 9/11 is an egregious crime that must be prosecuted – but not something that challenges their stilted version of our civilization.

So we get the ‘nuanced’ Munich and Syriana. We get peace marches. We get the Lefty media railing that our espionage efforts infringes on privacy rights – without any examples of such espionage infringing on our citizens rights.

Now for something completely different!!! Something unnecessary in any war since at least the birth of the twentieth century. The American public is TELLING you not to denigrate our culture by ignoring the targeted terror of certain sectors of it. We are TELLING you that there is no sophomoric equivalence between the Mossad and the PLO. We are TELLING you that we do not fight for oil, but we will fight for our ideals. We are TELLING you to respect us. Just check out the ratings of Air America and the box office returns on Syriana and Munich ( www.radioandrecords.com, www.boxofficemojo.com ). And, that is why I wrote ‘our espionage efforts’ in the preceding paragraph – something certain to cause lefties to grind their teeth. YOU have to understand that WE have to win this war.

However, if you are an Idiotarian Lefty, please understand that the next targets are yours:

• CNN
• Paris
• Toronto
• Hollywood
• Amsterdam
• San Francisco
• United Nations
• Gay Pride Parades

Radical Islamists hate the corrupting influence of soft western power as well. The best of them (al Qaeda) target not just people, but icons of our civilization. Thank God, on this Christmas Eve, that al Qaeda targeted the part of America that fights back rather than cowers down!

'The Democratic Way of War' - A Mental Image...

Re(1): 'Nelson's Medals and Decorations', www.twogreens.com

I was looking for a vibrant graphic to illustrate a mental image representing ‘The Democratic Way of War’… A way of war which pits a self-blinded and mutilated man in a life and death struggle with barbaric and inhuman enemies.

No hits… None… Nada...

You would think that the party of Vietnam, the Iran Hostage Rescue, and Mogadishu would have a cultural icon representing their war fighting prowess.

I thought I could search for it using '+"self-blinded" +"self-mutilated" +war +hero +Democratic +Party'.

That should do it!!!

Then again, I think that the Moonbat Left doesn’t think we are at war – so maybe we have to wait till there is an obvious enemy… I can only assume that 3000 murders on 9/11 were acceptable casualties in the effort to incarcerate World Court fugitives.

Looks like some enterprising artist is going to have to create the logo from scratch...

Addendum:

However, if one seeks a real blind, one-armed warrior look no farther than:

Somehow, I don’t think Admiral Horatio Nelson comes to mind as the icon of the Modern Democratic Party. Senators Kerry, Boxer, Kennedy, Durbin, and Congresscritters Pelosi, and Murtha probably don't know who Horatio Nelson was. The smarter of the Idiotarians probably think he was an oppressed, physically challenged, non-smoker who died at the hands of violent gun toting militarists…

Oh well…

Red/Blue in the Middle East!!!

Re(1): 'Daly Thoughts', Gerry Daly
Re(2): 'ECB Classic', Gerry Daly

Seeking a concise graphic demonstrating the political mood of the Middle East, I belatedly remembered Gerry Daly’s fine electoral maps leading up to the United States Presidential election.

To that end, I surmise that the Middle East ‘electoral college’ map at the end of the Clinton Legacy must have looked much like the following *:

Islamic Terror had a complete 'Crescent of Terror' stretching from Iran through Iraq to Syria/Lebanon. A financial and logistics ally was to be found within Wahabist Saudi Arabia. Egypt provided manpower, material, and moral support to the good cause. Pakistan and Afghanistan overtly trained Jihadists on a training schedule reminiscent of Marine Corps Boot Camp. Sunni al Qaeda and Shiite Hezbollah and 'secular' Bathists got along well enough for government work.








Recent polling (Iraqi parliamentary vote for a permanent government, Lebanon election, and anti-terrorist actions in Saudi Arabia) illustrate a structural shift in the Middle East ‘electoral college’.


Iraq has steadily progressed toward becoming a viable member of the civilized world. Additionally, it now has over 290,000 American trained troops which, in concert with the large coalition contingent, acts as a very strong regional blocking force countering state sponsored Islamic Terror. No longer is the 'Crescent of Terror' unbroken. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Pakistan are all fighting Islamic Terror for their own reasons - but at least they are not overt and proud sponsors of terror. Syria has been pushed out of Lebanon - which subsequently voted reasonable leadership into office. Iran is now surrounded - and very susceptible to blockade, covert operations, and overt military strike.





Please visit often to get updates. The next scheduled polling will occur in 2009 when the next Iraqi parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place. Of course, if special elections are scheduled in any of the regional nation states you can expect contemporaneous analysis on these pages.

Readers may cringe at the use of the familiar Red/Blue color coding. Some (Dean/Kerry/Pelosi/Kennedy/Kucinich/etc.) note that the overtly American cultural influence may not be sensitive to all the ‘voters’ or the region. That seeing the world in Red and Blue is simplistic and does not incorporate all the shades of grey in the region. However, I contend that you are ‘with us, or with the terrorists’. That you take the 'Cut and Run' approach to dealing with the ‘root causes’ of Islamic Terror, or you take the ‘Total Victory’ approach. All implications of this statement are known to the author!!!

* State run polls by autocratic totalitarian regimes are as notoriously useless as presidential polls by John Zogby.

None for you…

To the Hard Left,
When November 2006 rolls around please understand you will get no credit for:

• Victory in Iraq
• Democracy in Iraq
• Birth of Freedom for millions
• A Democratic Ally in the Middle East
• A Growing GDP
• Full Employment
• A Shrinking Deficit

You have painted yourselves, and the decrepit Democratic Party, into a corner where predictions of doom and gloom die an inglorious and embarrassing death. The internet, with its ability to store the written word, the telling sound byte, and the irrefutable video clip will not reflect well on your ignorant and silly clique. You will be forgiven, but not forgotten. The web will destroy any attempt by any future Nostradamus diviners in the media to recreate your legacy. Their interpretation of Dean/Kerry/Kennedy/Pelosi/Murtha quatrains will fail miserably in comparison with contemporary discussion by the likes of Fernandez, Roggio, and Mixed Humor…

I now give you nothing, ever…

You ARE a waste of time and space...

You get NO credit for the birth of freedom in the Middle East; and the integration of those millions into the community of civilized nations.

Enjoy your decades in the wilderness…

I know this entry is forever, as are this, and this, and this, and this, and this, and this…

Those are mine; see ‘My Favorite Posts’ for a small set of fine projections from primary sources…

Mighty Chinese Armada spotted rounding South Korean peninsula!!!

Re(1): 'The ten-foot tall midget', BelmontClub, Wretchard TC

A vast armada of Chinese coastal patrol boats and freighters was spotted rounding the South Korean peninsula - heading into the open ocean. Satellite surveillance photos show thousands or millions or billions of armed Chinese Army soldiers on the decks of the freighter armada. This is, apparently, a strong and unbeatable military response to America’s very aggressive condemnation of the recent Guangdong Province Windmill massacre.

Sources fear that this fleet is a vanguard attack force expected to strike the beaches of California. The Chinese Armada was moving at the rather brisk pace of six knots when last seen. South Korean, Japanese, and American Air Force assets in the region are warily watching its progress – but are reluctant to attack a motley collection of slow moving freighters. At this pace the potential strike force will require three weeks to reach the west coast of the United States.

As a precaution, the United States is vectoring three Nimitz class carriers and battle groups into the convoy's path. These carrier battle fleets will be in position within three days. Military officials are calling this Operation Red Dawn Overwatch. Sources inside the Pentagon are rather incredulous about this overt military action by the Chinese government. Privately, they express concern that aggressive American action against this force would result in international condemnation and nationwide peace marches. Army sources fear that it will be too late to do anything if the soldiers aboard the freighters off load in San Francisco, Los Angeles, Portland, and/or Seattle. International ANSWER rallies are being organized in each of these ports.

In response, Democrats are generating a cohesive plan in opposition to the Administration. Representative Murtha recommends ‘strategically redeploying our ground forces to Iraq to avoid unnecessary casualties’. Deeply emotional, he lamented the potential loss of American lives if a plane or ship crashes into a Chinese freighter. His strongest concern is that the war will last weeks and weeks. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi came out swinging in strong support for Murtha’s strategy. During a speech at the Cindy Sheehan Peace House, Former Presidential candidate Senator Kerry brazenly challenged the Administration, demanding UN meetings and international conferences. Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean commented that:

this war cannot be won, in fact we have already lost it. We always lose
wars. There are billions of Chinese in this word, and they all seem real mad at
us. This Administration can’t solve everything through military
action.

Many Democrats privately worry that a defeatist attitude regarding defending American cities and soil might further emphasize a perception that Democrats are ‘weak on defense’. They hearken back to President Carter who boycotted the Moscow Olympics as the strong response to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Senator Harkin strongly supports boycotting the Chinese Olympics in a strong show of American resolve.

Diplomatic efforts are being made to determine the military intent of this incursion.